Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.UPDATE...SUBTROPICAL JET WAS PUSHING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION AT LATE MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST MS MAKES ITS WAY TO
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A GWO-MEI LINE. ALREADY HAVE PUT OUT
A FEW WARNINGS DUE TO HAIL SPLITTING CELLS IN THE DELTA REGION. THIS
WAS PICKED UP WELL BY ONE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODE MODELS. SO AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...427 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LIGHT SHOW OUTSIDE
DURING THE PAST HOUR AS PROLIFIC LIGHTNING FROM PASSING STORMS
ILLUMINATED THE NIGHT SKY. THESE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS ARE THE LATEST BATCH IN A SERIES THAT HAVE COME
THROUGH THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY. THE CULPRIT CONTINUES TO BE
ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER THE TOP OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
THE COAST. THAT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30 HAS ALLOWED SOME RATHER ROBUST STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

WHILE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD BY NOON WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG INVADING SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE 50 KNOTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME BY SOUTHWARD MOVING COOL AIR
PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SWEEP THE INCLEMENT WEATHER OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT./26/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER) COULD LINGER IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MID-MORNING...BUT THE CHANCES OF DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE GOOD BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DRYING
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE TERRIBLY PLEASANT AS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SUNSHINE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PRODUCE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NORTH WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE AS CHILLY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT WINDS WILL THWART GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SHOULD PREVENT FROST...DESPITE LOWS DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MANY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A CLIPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY HELP
REINFORCE THE CHILLY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH
SUNSHINE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY.
HIGHS MAY ONCE AGAIN FAIL TO HIT 60 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...WHICH IS
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. THE IMPACT OF THE
COLD SPRING REGIME WILL REACH ITS CLIMAX ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
DIE DOWN UNDER CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING TO A RANGE OF 30 TO 35 DEGREES. AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY THICK FROST IS BEST IN EASTERN MS WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF MINIMUMS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IS ALSO BEST. DUE
TO EARLY START TO THIS GROWING SEASON...THIS FROST/FREEZE COULD BE
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL AND THUS WARRANTS MENTION IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

GRADUAL AIR MASS MODERATION WILL START DURING THE DAY MONDAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD STILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN AT LEAST EASTERN MS ZONES. BUT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD LATER ON TUESDAY AND WILL WORK ITS MAGIC AND HASTEN THE
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS STILL DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A POTENT DISTURBANCE SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR MODEL CONSENSUS IS A BIT LATER WITH THE TIMING. SINCE THE
MAIN IMPACT IS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD WE WILL CERTAINLY
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO...BUT THIS SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION
IN THE MODEL WORLD WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. TAF SITES THAT EXPERIENCE TS WILL BRIEFLY
FALL TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  54  58  38 /  75  58  28   3
MERIDIAN      71  56  63  38 /  80  68  44   4
VICKSBURG     74  54  59  40 /  66  50  22   2
HATTIESBURG   75  61  66  40 /  82  71  58   8
NATCHEZ       75  54  58  40 /  75  63  30   3
GREENVILLE    68  49  58  38 /  45  48  14   5
GREENWOOD     70  50  58  36 /  51  47  16   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/26/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>050-053>066-
072>074-190945-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
444 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER AN EARLY
START TO THE GROWING SEASON AND AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED
AND UNHEARTY VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
THICK FROST AND LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE ANY FROST-RELATED
VEGETATION DAMAGE HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-051-052-190945-
CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-
444 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER AN EARLY
START TO THE GROWING SEASON AND AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED
AND UNHEARTY VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
THICK FROST AND LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE ANY FROST-RELATED
VEGETATION DAMAGE HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1112 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     HAIL             BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
03/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN BROOKHAVEN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             5 W EUDORA              33.12N 91.35W
03/18/2016  E0.25 INCH       CHICOT             AR   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF
            EUDORA.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

MSZ036-042-181745-
HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
1222 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YAZOO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BENTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF YAZOO CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COXBURG AROUND 1230 PM CDT.
  EBENEZER AND BROZVILLE AROUND 1240 PM CDT.
  FRANKLIN AND PICKENS AROUND 1245 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3291 8993 3290 8994 3289 8996 3288 8996
      3285 8999 3283 9034 3295 9036 3311 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 254DEG 39KT 3289 9028

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

MSZ032-037-038-181800-
ATTALA MS-WINSTON MS-CHOCTAW MS-
1224 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ATTALA...SOUTH CENTRAL
CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1223 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER KOSCIUSKO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ATTALA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...WEIR...ETHEL AND MCCOOL.

LAT...LON 3294 8960 3312 8966 3334 8926 3294 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 254DEG 39KT 3306 8954

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             VIDALIA                 31.57N 91.44W
03/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHOWERS OF HAIL FOR 30 MINUTES SOME AROUND GOLF BALL
            SIZED.

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
03/17/2016                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE PERSON WAS INJURED WHEN THE ROOF WAS PARTIAL BLOWN
            OFF OF A HOME. SEVERAL OTHER HOMES SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE.
            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWN.

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JAYESS                  31.36N 90.21W
03/17/2016                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. ROOF RIPPED OFF OF A
            TRAILER.

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOPEKA                  31.42N 90.19W
03/17/2016                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

ARZ074-LAZ007-008-181815-
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN WEST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1248 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GALION...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMOT...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN WEST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE
PARISHES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BONITA.

LAT...LON 3294 9180 3309 9146 3301 9146 3301 9143
      3284 9139 3276 9174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 253DEG 32KT 3288 9168

17