Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

623 
WWUS54 KJAN 212108
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSC021-149-212118-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160121T2145Z/
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
308 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3235 9066 3234 9063 3237 9063 3248 9047
      3234 9028 3217 9062 3232 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 235DEG 31KT 3229 9059 

$$

MSC049-212145-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160121T2145Z/
HINDS MS-
308 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN HINDS COUNTY...

AT 308 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDWARDS...OR
15 MILES WEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOLTON AROUND 325 PM CST.
  CLINTON AND BROWNSVILLE AROUND 330 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3235 9066 3234 9063 3237 9063 3248 9047
      3234 9028 3217 9062 3232 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 235DEG 31KT 3229 9059 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER NW
AND WC PORTIONS WITH SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
ITS SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE AS WELL.

CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY BREAKING UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH
MS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE
LOWER 70S THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW CAPES TO JUMP UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30. HRRR IS INDICATING SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES IN FORECAST REFLECTIVITY WITH HIGH UPDRAFT HELICITIES
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES./26/

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT EXTENDED ALONG A AEX-JAN-HBG LINE AT 16Z. AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO BECOME HIGH MVFR IF NOT VFR. TO THE NORTH...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR IN STRATUS...FOG AND RAIN. AFTER
00Z...CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BACK TO IFR AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER
SITUATION LOOKS TO UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. CURRENTLY A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS FILTERING BACK
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS STALLED GENERALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. IT IS THESE TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY PIVOTAL ROLES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF MY CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS STALLED FRONT/WARM FRONT AND DISCRETE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

OVERALL THE THINKING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. AS THIS DOES...WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE BACK NORTH
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS THE SFC LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST AND DEEPEN. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 700-1200
J/KG OF MUCAPE PRESENT. THIS...ALONG WITH AROUND 28C VERTICAL TOTALS
AND 60KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD HELP GENERATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT FIRST BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MS AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THERE
WILL ALSO BE RISK OF TORNADOES. OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE AND AREA
OUTLOOKED PREVIOUSLY SEEMS GENERALLY ON TRACK STILL. THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION OR WHICH
PARTS OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN AREA IN
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SEEN IS THE
NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK GENERALLY FROM NATCHEZ TO THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO
COLUMBUS. POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS TRACK WILL BE PRIMED FOR
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER...WHEREAS NORTH OF THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SEE MUCH IF ANY...THOUGH SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO WITH CURRENT HWO/GRAPHICS AS IS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE NOT
SEEN RAIN IN A WHILE...VEGETATION THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESNT ABSORB
THE RAINFALL AS EFFICIENTLY. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOODING OUTLOOK AS
IS. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT THE BEST TIMING SHOULD BE
AROUND NOON TO 9-10PM.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE LAGGING SHORTLY BEHIND. AS THIS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE INCOMING COLD AIR TO
GENERATE A WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. /28/

CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...FLURRIES OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE A CONCERN AS WELL.

MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW ACROSS NRN LA AND NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM FARTHEST SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION OFFERS MORE OF A MIDDLE
ROAD AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO ITS DETAILS WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ASIDE FROM THE LOW POSITIONING AND CORRELATED
PRECIP AMOUNTS...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH SNOW...AND OF COURSE THE TIMING OF RAIN TO FROZEN PRECIP IS
ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS SET-UP. IT SEEMS A CONSENSUS POINTS TO
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME FOR A CHANGE-OVER TO FROZEN PRECIP IN THE
DELTA REGION...WITH THE TRANSITION ZONE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MS LATER IN THE MORNING. THE INHERITED FORECAST MAY HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO FAST IN THIS REGARD...BUT WILL KEEP IT ROUGHLY THE SAME
TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WATCH PRODUCT. IN THE END...SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD STILL BE JUST AS...IF NOT MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT A LITTLE MORE DELAYED.

THE MAIN CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST WERE TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE SE ARKANSAS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY BASED ON IDEA OF QUICKER
STRENGTHENING AND STRONGER LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SNOW SWATH WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A
SW-NE ORIENTATION FOR THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
DELTA REGION. HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC TO BUMP UP AMOUNTS SOME IN
THE WATCH AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN UPGRADE. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA AND DOWN TO THE I-
20 CORRIDOR...ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH NECESSARY FOR SNOW WILL BE MORE
FLEETING GIVEN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL CERTAINLY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WHICH COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING...AND THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER COULD BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW GRAIN PRODUCTION. IN ANY CASE...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK INCONSEQUENTIAL
FARTHER SOUTH. /EC/

WHILE WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A RATHER
RAW AND MISERABLE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWFALL OCCURRING AND MAY LINGER NEAR
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
AT TIMES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SPEEDS OF 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THIS COULD WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA ON FRIDAY. THE WIND AND COLD COMBINED WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER TEENS IN THE DELTA. /28/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE
SHORT TERM PERIOD (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...OTHER THAN A SMALL "BUMP
IN THE ROAD" MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY APPEARS RATHER SUBDUED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION...CLOUDS
AND ANY POSSIBLE LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
CLEARING SKIES...A RATHER BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACKED BY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES...PRIMARILY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  THIS
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.  CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S AREAWIDE.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA...AND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES SOUTHERLY.  STILL...AN OVERALL SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
ON TAP AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  HIGHS MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IS RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
NATION'S MID-SECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  RAIN LOOKS TO COME TO
AN END TUESDAY EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  39  40  28 /  95 100  53   9
MERIDIAN      61  41  42  30 /  92 100  51   9
VICKSBURG     52  40  41  28 /  95  95  53   6
HATTIESBURG   71  45  45  28 /  92 100  22   6
NATCHEZ       66  42  42  27 /  95  86  32   5
GREENVILLE    54  34  36  28 /  96  97  90   7
GREENWOOD     56  35  36  26 /  96 100  90   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-034.

LA...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-221930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-WASHINGTON-
125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ027>033-035>042-221930-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-
125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SZIE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND BY AFTERNOON IN EAST MISSISSIPPI, WITH SNOW ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROSSETT TO WINONA TO EUPORA. TRAVEL CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME DIFFICULT IN THOSE AREAS ON FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ025-MSZ043>058-221930-
TENSAS-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND TENSAS PARISH LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-221930-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, BUT HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
154 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ049-050-212030-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
154 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RANKIN AND WEST
CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 154 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PELAHATCHIE...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRANDON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORTON AND LEESBURG AROUND 210 PM CST.
  BRANCH AROUND 215 PM CST.
  FORKVILLE AROUND 220 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3228 8986 3234 8993 3252 8977 3242 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 226DEG 27KT 3234 8986

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
204 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ043-049-212030-
MADISON MS-RANKIN MS-
204 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RANKIN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 203 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR RIDGELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FANNIN AROUND 215 PM CST.
  GOSHEN SPRINGS AROUND 225 PM CST.
  PISGAH AROUND 230 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3249 8982 3233 9009 3234 9011 3236 9011
      3236 9010 3238 9010 3239 9008 3239 9007
      3240 9007 3240 9020 3256 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 218DEG 23KT 3239 9008

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ035-042-212045-
HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
210 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN YAZOO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CST...

AT 210 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HOLLY BLUFF...OR 12 MILES WEST OF YAZOO CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  YAZOO CITY AROUND 230 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LOUISE.

LAT...LON 3290 9030 3267 9065 3275 9071 3276 9069
      3277 9069 3278 9071 3280 9072 3281 9069
      3282 9073 3281 9074 3282 9075 3307 9053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 226DEG 33KT 3280 9061

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ027-036-037-212045-
ATTALA MS-CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-
219 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ATTALA...SOUTHEASTERN
CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CST...

AT 219 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER FRANKLIN...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DURANT AND BOWLING GREEN AROUND 230 PM CST.
  POSSUMNECK AROUND 235 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SALLIS AND WEST.

LAT...LON 3318 8952 3288 8997 3292 9008 3298 9014
      3334 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 219DEG 44KT 3302 8997

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ047-053-212100-
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
229 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 229 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ROCKY SPRINGS...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY SPRINGS AROUND 235 PM CST.
  REGANTON AROUND 245 PM CST.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3234 9073 3229 9070 3227 9072 3226 9072
      3226 9073 3225 9071 3224 9073 3211 9072
      3204 9089 3211 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 228DEG 34KT 3209 9090

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

MSZ043-044-212115-
LEAKE MS-MADISON MS-
241 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEAKE AND EAST CENTRAL MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

AT 241 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FARMHAVEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN AROUND 245 PM CST.
  CARTHAGE AND THOMASTOWN AROUND 300 PM CST.
  SINGLETON AROUND 305 PM CST.
  RENFROE AROUND 310 PM CST.
  EDINBURG AROUND 315 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE REDWATER.

LAT...LON 3261 8973 3263 8973 3258 8978 3259 8984
      3255 8990 3271 9000 3293 8962 3293 8936
      3287 8932 3278 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 240DEG 49KT 3267 8987

DB