Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jackson, MS

756 
WWUS54 KJAN 232244
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

MSC133-232254-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160223T2315Z/
SUNFLOWER MS-
444 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3358 9010 3353 9010 3336 9026 3337 9032
      3334 9028 3332 9030 3331 9035 3329 9036
      3345 9046 3347 9045 3366 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 221DEG 27KT 3340 9034 

$$

MSC083-232315-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160223T2315Z/
LEFLORE MS-
444 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL LEFLORE COUNTY...

AT 444 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR QUITO...OR
NEAR ITTA BENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  QUITO AROUND 450 PM CST.
  ITTA BENA AROUND 455 PM CST.
  GREENWOOD AROUND 510 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SCHLATER
AND MORGAN CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3358 9010 3353 9010 3336 9026 3337 9032
      3334 9028 3332 9030 3331 9035 3329 9036
      3345 9046 3347 9045 3366 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 221DEG 27KT 3340 9034 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BYB

209 
WWUS54 KJAN 232256
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

MSC083-232305-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160223T2315Z/
LEFLORE MS-
456 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LEFLORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS TO
45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3358 9010 3353 9010 3336 9026 3337 9032
      3334 9028 3332 9030 3331 9035 3329 9036
      3345 9046 3347 9045 3366 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 205DEG 29KT 3349 9029 

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

.UPDATE...

THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME IN THIS MORNING
UPDATE...WILL HAVE A KJAN SPECIAL SOUNDING FOR 11 AM AND POSSIBLY
ONE AT 2 PM DEPENDING ON SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE AT THAT TIME. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE CONDENSED TIMING WINDOW AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN LATEST TIMING GRAPHIC. INITIAL STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING UP FROM SOUTHEAST LA COULD BE A CONCERN IN
THE HATTIESBURG AREA AFTER 200 PM...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONGER MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH
AND WITH BETTER SFC PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENG. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...POOR CONDITIONS FOR FLYING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO LOW
STRATUS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
JAN/HKS/GTR/MEI/HBG IN THE 22-04Z TIME PERIOD. RAIN WILL ALSO AFFECT
KGLH/KGWO THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AHEAD OF THE SEVERE STORMS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20KTS
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30KTS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. NOTE THAT WINDS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE IN THE GLH/GWO AREA
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER TRACK. /28/EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/

..SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES LIKELY TODAY...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF TODAYS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT EJECTS NORTH AND
EAST TOWARD ARKANSAS AND TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. AS IT
DOES...THE SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
CURRENTLY WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS OCCURS THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA...WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 925MB
WILL INCREASE TO 20KTS BY 18Z AND 40-50KTS BY 00Z AS WELL AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50KTS. THIS WILL HELP PUMP PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
MANY NORTHERN LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20. WHILE ONE MIGHT INITIALLY
THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WOULDNT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN SOME PARTS
OF THE AREA...THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SEVERE STORMS. AS
A 100KT MIDLEVEL 500MB JET CIRCLES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND FEEDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP EVEN MORE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

IN TERMS OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST INSTABILITY AS CHARACTERIZED BY
BOTH DEWPOINTS AND CAPE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WITH MUCAPE AROUND 600-
1200 J/KG AND SBCAPE AROUND 500-900 J/KG. COUPLE THIS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM...DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AROUND 50KTS
AND HELICITY VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2 NOT JUST IN THE SOUTH BUT
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NOT JUST SEVERE
STORMS BUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...MOST NOTABLY STRONG
TORNADOES. MODEL STRONG TORNADO PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BULLSEYE NEAR OR IN THE NORTHERN GULF/COASTAL AREAS. THIS WOULD PUT
THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THIS WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS MORE ROBUST THAN OTHERS IN TERMS OF
DEPICTING TODAYS SEVERE EVENT. THEY ALL SEEM TO BRING SOME RAIN INTO
THE WESTERN PART OF MY REGION BY MID-MORNING WHICH WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD AS THE SFC LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THEN THEY SHOW THE STRONGER/DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING BY
LATER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MANY OF THEM DO SEEM TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST PART OF THE CWA
WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY FROM AROUND BROOKHAVEN EASTWARD. AS
STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST...THERE IS SOME DEPICTION OF FORMING A SEMI
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THE GENERAL TIME FRAME FOR ACTIVITY IS NEAR
NOON OR A LITTLE AFTER THROUGH 9-10PM(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR).

ONE CONCERNING FACTOR IS THAT THE 00Z RUNS SEEMED TO CONTINUE A
SLIGHT TREND OF BRINGING THE SFC LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
CWA AS OPPOSED TO TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE GFS
BEGAN THIS LAST NIGHT AND A FEW OTHERS SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS TREND THIS
MORNING. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN I WOULD EXPECT MORE OF THE
STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS TO BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD IMPACT
HOW MUCH OF MY NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER WHEN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HWO AND GRAPHICS.
OVERALL...NOTHING WILL CHANGE IN TERMS OF HAZARDS BUT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AREA(PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK) WILL BE IN AN
ELEVATED RISK AND WILL ALSO LOOK AT POSSIBLY REDUCING SOME OF THE
SIZE OF THE SIGNIFICANT RISK. STILL FEEL THAT THE BEST AREA FOR THAT
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MODERATE RISK AREA
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...THE AREA COULD SEE 1-2.5 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD EXACERBATE AREAS THAT SAW DECENT RAIN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED BUT MAY CONSIDER
PUTTING SOMETHING IN THE HWO FOR HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT.

THE MORE POTENT STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 03-06Z AS THE
989MB SFC LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LEFT ALL
PRECIPITATION NOW IN THE FORECAST AS RAIN...HOWEVER AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD CORE LOW MOVING
THROUGH...I CANNOT RULE OUT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENTIRELY COLD COLUMN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEPARTS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S THANKS TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

ONE LAST THING OF NOTE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND WINDS RESPOND...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE
ISSUES OUTSIDE OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT EVEN BEHIND IT SUCH
THAT PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE DELTA...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. /28/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE
STAY UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUR
COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING EAST OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING SOME RETURN FLOW. UPPER FLAT
RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO POPS WERE
LOWERED SOME. THE EURO HAD ONLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT HANGING TO THE NORTH....AND CANADIAN LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
HAD RAIN WITH THE FRONT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  43  49  35 /  97  99  42   0
MERIDIAN      71  46  47  33 /  90 100  37   5
VICKSBURG     65  43  48  35 /  97  89  40   0
HATTIESBURG   70  48  53  35 /  96  96  17   0
NATCHEZ       67  43  52  36 /  97  62  25   0
GREENVILLE    62  41  49  35 /  96  99  59   0
GREENWOOD     64  44  47  34 /  96  99  65   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

ARZ074-MSZ018-242115-
ASHLEY-BOLIVAR-
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ075-MSZ019-242115-
CHICOT-SUNFLOWER-
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ025>028-034>036-040-041-242115-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ029>033-037>039-042>045-047>050-053-054-059>061-242115-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ046-051-052-055>058-062>066-072>074-242115-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
312 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STRONG
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY
ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

MSZ053-232100-
CLAIBORNE MS-
232 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 232 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ROCKY SPRINGS...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY SPRINGS AROUND 240 PM CST.
  REGANTON AROUND 250 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3212 9088 3213 9085 3214 9084 3214 9086
      3216 9085 3215 9083 3214 9082 3215 9081
      3215 9077 3216 9077 3218 9079 3219 9075
      3222 9073 3213 9072 3198 9080 3199 9090
      3213 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 191DEG 27KT 3204 9085

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
253 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

LAZ016-MSZ047-232130-
MADISON LA-WARREN MS-
253 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MADISON PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CST...

AT 253 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LE TOURNEAU...OR 7 MILES WEST OF VICKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VICKSBURG AROUND 300 PM CST.
  REDWOOD AND BOVINA AROUND 330 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUND AND DELTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 9097 3242 9096 3243 9096 3245 9092
      3244 9088 3245 9087 3244 9086 3248 9086
      3252 9080 3235 9069 3234 9071 3230 9070
      3227 9072 3221 9103 3234 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 242DEG 18KT 3230 9099

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

LAZ016-MSZ040-047-232145-
MADISON LA-ISSAQUENA MS-WARREN MS-
254 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MADISON PARISH...
CENTRAL WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CST...

AT 253 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LE TOURNEAU...OR 7 MILES WEST OF VICKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VICKSBURG AROUND 300 PM CST.
  BOVINA AROUND 315 PM CST.
  REDWOOD AROUND 320 PM CST.
  OAK RIDGE AROUND 325 PM CST.
  YOUNGTON AROUND 330 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUND AND DELTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 9074 3264 9069 3263 9070 3262 9072
      3262 9069 3259 9069 3259 9066 3255 9065
      3255 9059 3253 9058 3253 9055 3251 9055
      3250 9058 3248 9061 3245 9059 3243 9060
      3218 9099 3231 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 228DEG 33KT 3230 9100

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

MSZ054-232200-
COPIAH MS-
324 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CST...

AT 324 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MARTINSVILLE...OR OVER HAZLEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GALLMAN AROUND 335 PM CST.
  CRYSTAL SPRINGS AROUND 345 PM CST.
  HOPEWELL AROUND 350 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 9050 3205 9039 3205 9023 3203 9025
      3202 9023 3202 9022 3201 9023 3199 9022
      3199 9021 3197 9021 3195 9019 3194 9020
      3193 9017 3173 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 211DEG 27KT 3183 9041

19