Severe Thunderstorm Warning 371, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
453 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Through early this evening, we will see a continuation of thunderstorms,
mainly focused along a convective outflow boundary currently extending
roughly along the I-20 corridor. This activity will push south into
southern portions of the area area per latest HRRR guidance before
diminishing early this evening. A few additional strong/severe storms
will remain possible until then, especially given the very efficient
wind-producing outflow boundary in this hot airmass. Overnight,
increasing low level flow/convergence along an approaching front
combined with very moist air (precipitable water > 2 inches) could
help to maintain low end convective precipitation chances, especially
over northern portions of the area.

For Sunday, moisture convergence should maximize over the ArkLaMiss
as northerly flow sends drier air behind a cold front moving slowly
into northern portions of the forecast area. Showers and storms
should develop a little more quickly as a result and this is expected
to limit heat stress a bit more. While a mention of the dangerous
heat continues in the HWO into Sunday, we are letting the heat
advisory expire this evening as any conditions meeting heat advisory
criteria should be short-lived. It is possible the HWO threat level
for heat can eventually be lowered for some locations Sunday if
trends continue.

Looking ahead, the threat for heavy rain and additional heat still
applies for mid to late next week. The previous discussion
concerning this follows. /EC/

LONG TERM...Monday through the end of next week...The main focus
of the long term period will be on a broad, hybrid low to mid level
low pressure center expected to fester for a period of days just to
our east. Model consensus concerning this feature is reasonable
although detail differences in individual models could vary outcomes
in our region considerably. Of course the west-ward envelope of
solutions would spell much more rain potential for our region (and
even open the door for potentially heavy rain amounts affecting
portions of southeastern Mississippi). The eastward envelope of
solutions might conversely limit much of the rain potential to
eastern MS (with any heavy rain potential being much further east
than that) while dangerous heat could be allowed to quickly build
back into at least the western half of zones.

But these question marks really won't apply until Tuesday or
Wednesday. On Monday the cold front causing numerous area showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday will head toward the coast while washing
out. Slightly drier air coming down in the wake of the front should
reduce chances of rain for most, although the sunnier skies in
northern zones could allow heat to build. Still thinking the drier
air should keep heat advisory criteria from being met in all areas.
Tuesday is when moisture from the aforementioned hybrid low to our
east could start pushing back west into at least eastern
Mississippi, increasing precip chances for those areas. Further west
heat might potentially push back closer to advisory criteria,which
is an aspect to the forecast we will have to monitor closely.

By Wednesday the initial crux of the long term forecast (laid out
previously) will be in play. Confidence is reasonably high that our
region will not have to be dealing with a truly tropical system of
considerable strength but, as mentioned, confidence in breadth of
impacts of a potentially weaker and broader hybrid system is a
little iffy. It is possible that either heat issues or locally heavy
rain issues in the latter portion of next week will eventually need
to be included in the HWO. However, given stated uncertainty we
would rather watch model evolutions for another few cycles and
let model consensus in a particular solution grow. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...Storms will bring brief lowering of flight conditions to
MVFR/IFR to affected sites. Expect the bulk of the thunderstorms to
dissipate by 01-02z this evening, but isolated storms will be
possible overnight. Patchy MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible early
Sunday morning. The patchy fog will diminish by 14z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  94  74  93 /  28  59  29  12
Meridian      74  96  75  93 /  31  69  33  34
Vicksburg     76  95  75  94 /  25  47  20  21
Hattiesburg   76  93  75  92 /  36  71  35  46
Natchez       74  92  73  92 /  36  62  28  35
Greenville    76  92  75  92 /  29  43  11  16
Greenwood     74  91  73  93 /  30  48  11  10

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

EC/BB/17/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ040-071930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
ISSAQUENA-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY

A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALL HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>036-041-042-071930-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON

A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALL HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

MSZ030-031-033-037>039-043>066-072>074-071930-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LAZ016-023>026-071930-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW LITTLE YAZOO      32.64N 90.42W
08/06/2016                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALONG MS HWY 433 NEAR BENTONIA

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOUISVILLE              33.12N 89.05W
08/06/2016  E50.00 MPH       WINSTON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED IN THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE, CAUSING A POWER
            OUTAGE

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE STALLO            32.99N 89.08W
08/06/2016                   WINSTON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED NEAR NOXAPATER

&&

DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

MSZ043-048-049-062245-
MADISON MS-HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
500 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RANKIN...SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON
AND EAST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER RIDGELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PEARL...FLOWOOD AND FANNIN AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  BRANDON AROUND 515 PM CDT.
  JOHNS AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  CATO AROUND 540 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PUCKETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 9028 3245 9017 3254 9009 3231 8973
      3205 8973 3205 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 317DEG 37KT 3242 9012

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

MSZ055-062230-
SIMPSON MS-
503 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SIMPSON COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MENDENHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANATORIUM AROUND 525 PM CDT.
  MAGEE AROUND 530 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE D'LO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 9006 3202 8988 3182 8965 3178 8965
      3178 8966 3176 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 320DEG 14KT 3193 8991

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

MSZ056-062230-
SMITH MS-
504 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF RALEIGH...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MAGEE...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE AROUND 530 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MIZE AND SYLVARENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8965 3202 8932 3180 8932 3178 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 346DEG 15KT 3192 8954

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S LAKE VILLAGE        33.30N 91.28W
08/06/2016  E50 MPH          CHICOT             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VERY LARGE TREE LIMB DOWNED AT PECAN GROVE RV PARK.

&&

AW