Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
934 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...Visible imagery this morning showing an impressive outflow
boundary moving southeast across northern portions of the CWA. This
boundary is leftover from MCS over AR/TN overnight. While boundary
should be the focus for initial convective development by afternoon,
better lapse rates moving in behind the boundary this afternoon
should allow convection to build northward. Meanwhile, will extend
limited severe risk further south in the HWO to account for enhanced
convergence/lift along the boundary and increasing damaging wind
threat as the atmosphere destablizes.

Temperatures are warming rapidly as expected with upper 80s already
widespread over the forecast area. Mid 90s highs still look
attainable before convection becomes too widespread./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Sunday night)...This weekend will feature
increasing rain chances across the ArkLaMiss.

Early morning upper air analysis and water vapor imagery showed an
upper trough sliding across the Great Lakes. Flow was more zonal
across the Deep South, though a weak upper low was situated over the
eastern Gulf. A few shortwaves were seen, one producing a convective
complex over AR this morning. Slight weakness was developing in the
mid level trough which has been limiting precip across the area
in recent days. Model consensus continues to indicate a shortwave
trough will develop and move across the Mid South through the
beginning of next week. These factors will likely allow some of the
complexes of showers/storms which have been sliding to our north to
begin encroaching on our area, more likely for areas farther north
and east in the CWA.

Timing is somewhat uncertain, with the model suite providing a
few different scenarios. However, the latest SPC SSEO shows the best
opportunity for convection as early as late morning along the Highway
82 corridor, expanding southeastward across much of Central MS during
the afternoon, with a decrease tonight. A similar situation could
unfold tomorrow as the pattern largely remains the same. With the
shortwave being closer to the area, most all of the CWA will have a
better chance of getting in on the action Sunday.

With respect to hazards, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible with the convection today. Ambient wind shear is expected
to be generally unimpressive, but sufficient 0-1 km flow may exist
especially across the northern portion of the area for damaging wind
gusts. This will especially be the case if a convective complex can
develop and sustain itself. We will maintain mention of a limited
threat for severe storms in those areas for today. Forecast peak
heat indices will again be near 105, but with greater opportunities
for clouds/precip there is less confidence that critical thresholds
will be met for an advisory. Thus, we will just maintain a limited
threat for dangerous heat in the HWO/graphics today. /DL/

Long Term (Monday through Friday night)...Hot and humid conditions
will continue through the long term portion of the forecast.  Highs
each day will generally top out in the middle 90s, with afternoon
heat index values continuing to peak in the 100 to 105 range across
much of the forecast area. Lows each night will also remain mild and
only slip into the middle and upper 70s through the period.

A weakening in the ridge aloft will bring about a better potential
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
work week.  Locales lucky enough to see this convection will
obviously see some needed and appreciated rainfall, but will also
see some brief relief from the afternoon heat.  This convection will
quickly begin to dissipate around sunset each evening. /19/

AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period.
Scattered TSRA are anticipated to develop late this morning into
afternoon. Brief cig/visby reductions and strong wind gusts can be
expected with this activity. Potential for storms will decrease
tonight. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  75  92  74 /  44  35  60  41
Meridian      97  75  93  74 /  54  35  62  40
Vicksburg     93  76  92  75 /  36  32  54  32
Hattiesburg   96  75  92  74 /  43  33  58  37
Natchez       92  75  91  74 /  33  25  49  28
Greenville    93  75  92  74 /  60  38  58  34
Greenwood     93  73  90  72 /  63  36  59  36

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>052-055>058-066-101515-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JONES-
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES IN THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ053-054-059>065-072>074-101515-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES IN THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MSZ039-091815-
NOXUBEE MS-
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NOXUBEE COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1240 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MASHULAVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRESTON...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MACON AROUND 100 PM CDT.
  PAULETTE AROUND 115 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SHUQUALAK.

LAT...LON 3293 8835 3293 8850 3297 8880 3315 8877
      3312 8832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 279DEG 18KT 3305 8870

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MSZ036-091815-
HOLMES MS-
1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

AT 1241 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HOWARD...OR NEAR THORNTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOWARD AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
  TOLARVILLE AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
  COXBURG AROUND 105 PM CDT.
  FRANKLIN...LEXINGTON...BROZVILLE AND EBENEZER AROUND 115 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3302 9032 3320 9029 3319 8990 3292 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 292DEG 10KT 3310 9024

DB