Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

646 
WWUS54 KJAN 032311
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

MSC127-032321-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-160303T2330Z/
SIMPSON MS-
511 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3169 8997 3176 8996 3177 8976 3162 8976
      3161 8975 3161 8974 3159 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 288DEG 42KT 3173 8980 

$$

MSC065-032330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-160303T2330Z/
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
511 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY...

AT 511 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CLEM...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF MAGEE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8997 3176 8996 3177 8976 3162 8976
      3161 8975 3161 8974 3159 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 288DEG 42KT 3173 8980 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GRG

514 
WWUS54 KJAN 032319
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

MSC065-032328-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-160303T2330Z/
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
519 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3169 8997 3176 8996 3177 8976 3162 8976
      3161 8975 3161 8974 3159 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 286DEG 38KT 3171 8971 

$$

GRG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED MESS OF WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE END RESULT MANIFESTING IN CURRENT
SMATTERING OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS RACING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORTUNATELY THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT BEEN
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEFINITELY ENOUGH
WIND SHEAR TO IMPART LOTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION TO MANY OF THESE
STORMS. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION IS VERY COLD ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING TO BOOST CAPE
VALUES TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FOR MANY OF THESE CELLS (WHICH IS
NOT TOO SHABBY CONSIDERING STORMS DO NOT EXTEND MUCH OVER 30 KFT).
MOST OF THIS CAPE IS NOT REALLY SURFACE-BASED...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND ALSO TORNADOES (BUT CERTAINLY NOT HAIL).
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS BASED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 AND THERE WILL BE BETTER WIND DAMAGE (AND EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADO) POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HWO/GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT ADJUSTMENTS IN THINKING.

DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THE CONSENSUS
IDEA OF HIRES MODELS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST MS BY 6 PM (AND THEN DEPARTING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER) SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE. DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG AND IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
FORMING LATER ON TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY CLEAR AND
WINDS REMAIN 5 MPH OR LESS. POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND NOTHING ALONG THESE LINES WAS
INCLUDED IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...BUT FOR THE EVENING UPDATE SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTERS WILL BE EXAMINING TRENDS CLOSELY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

FOR TOMORROW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
RELAXING BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH) AND SCATTERED MORNING TO MIDDAY CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM INSOLATION. GOOD ANTICIPATED RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE IN THE
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS.

LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING
FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PROBABLY TUESDAY AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE PLAINS. WILL POST THE RELEVANT PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL VALID. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND VISBY REDUCTIONS IN OCCASIONAL +RA.
SCT TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH 1 INCH HAIL AND 50
KT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
(OCCASIONALLY IFR) RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
SHIFTING FROM S/SE TO W/NW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER...THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW OVER OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEAK DRY TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. IN ITS WAKE A 1028MB HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING A LIGHT DRY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BACK ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA INTO MONDAY MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER
OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST THOUGH. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY. OUR PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS
BY TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS ANOMALOUS
PWAT IS WOULD BE A MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WIND FIELDS
WILL INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THIS EXISTS BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55
AND WL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE
THIS CLOSED LOW OUT AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE LOW
STILL OVER MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  64  42  72 /  10   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      43  63  37  70 /  25   0   0   2
VICKSBURG     46  65  44  73 /   6   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   48  67  41  73 /  23   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       46  66  45  73 /   6   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    42  60  42  70 /   5   0   0   1
GREENWOOD     39  61  40  70 /  10   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/DL/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-025>034-042145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-
341 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENWOOD TO NATCHEZ.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ009-015-016-023>026-MSZ035>066-072>074-042145-
EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-
CONCORDIA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
341 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH EARLY EVENING

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS POSSIBLE ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 NNE WHITES            32.13N 90.18W
03/03/2016  E0.88 INCH       RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED IN THE CLEARY COMMUNITY

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             HESTERVILLE             33.16N 89.65W
03/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       ATTALA             MS   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             3 NNE LE TOURNEAU       32.25N 90.92W
03/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZED HAIL ALONG US 61

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             KOSCIUSKO               33.06N 89.59W
03/03/2016  E0.50 INCH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL ALONG W JEFFERSON ST

0425 PM     HAIL             ETHEL                   33.12N 89.46W
03/03/2016  E0.50 INCH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
03/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR TRICKHAMBRIDGE ROAD.

0325 PM     HAIL             TRANSYLVANIA            32.68N 91.18W
03/03/2016  E0.88 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY FIRE CHIEF.

0347 PM     HAIL             3 S HOMEWOOD            32.19N 89.51W
03/03/2016  E0.50 INCH       SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT LORENA

0415 PM     HAIL             2 N BROOKHAVEN          31.61N 90.45W
03/03/2016  E0.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             5 N STALLO              32.99N 89.10W
03/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       WINSTON            MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT MS HWY 395

&&

DL