River Flood Advisory 10, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT GET AS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SO FAR
HAS BEEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING
DEWPOINTS WOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SLOWED THE
WARMING...BUT MAINTAINED MID 80S. THERE WAS A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION
THIS MORNING...BUT LOOKING FOR SOME MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
BALANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING AREAS IN THE EAST MAY HEAT
UP FASTER...SO MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS BUT KEPT HIGHS THE SAME.
GENERALLY TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT NOT THE RAIN CHANCES.
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK TOO BAD...WILL BE LOOKING AT POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT. ZONES WERE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING STRATUS I-20 AND SOUTH RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS
BUT WAS THINNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 1430Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 16Z AND WL CONT THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WL BE PSBL WITH THE FRONT. BREEZY SW WINDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL ESPECIALLY BE GUSTY IN THE
DELTA...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS...GUSTING UPWARDS TO
30 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED. THESE WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /19/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  57  80  54 /   0  10  14  13
MERIDIAN      85  58  79  53 /   0  10  14  13
VICKSBURG     86  57  79  53 /   0   9  13  13
HATTIESBURG   87  64  81  60 /   0   9  17  22
NATCHEZ       86  60  79  58 /   0   9  16  16
GREENVILLE    85  53  76  50 /   0  16  10   9
GREENWOOD     86  52  77  49 /   0  16  11  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-152000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DELTA REGION FROM LATE
THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
GUST UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-152000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

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