Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE CALM AFTER THE STORM. THE STORMS FROM YESTERDAY ARE NOW OVER IN
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION NOW FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. TEMPS WERE ABLE TO
RISE TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE AREA TODAY NONETHELESS. CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS HAVE KEPT THINGS
BREEZY TODAY BUT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 4-8 MPH.
THIS WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH...LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE PRIME
COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE CWA. CLOUDS
WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND WEATHER SHOULD BE
QUIET OVERALL. /10/

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AFTER MUCH UNCERTAINTY THE LAST FEW DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SETTLING ON A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION THIS WEEKEND. SO IT IS WITH MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WE INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER NE LA WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE WOULD HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF BEING SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS COMING
IN MORE BULLISH WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH AND A
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION FOR EARLY-MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL READINGS WOULD BE THE COLDEST
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS SEASON IF RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS VERIFY. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  52  27  54 /   1   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      31  53  25  55 /   1   2   0   0
VICKSBURG     32  51  27  56 /   1   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   34  56  28  56 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  51  28  54 /   1   2   0   0
GREENVILLE    32  48  28  52 /   1   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     29  48  26  53 /   1   2   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
042000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
200 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
247 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TORNADO          4 S NEWTON              32.26N 89.16W
02/02/2016  F1               NEWTON             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF HWY 15 AND TRACKED
            NORTHEAST ACROSS HWY 15 AND HWY 504 DAMAGING TWO HOMES
            AND A MOBILE HOME. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST ACROSS
            SHELBY AND GARVIN ROADS DAMAGING THE ROOF OF A HOME AND
            DESTROYING TWO CHICKEN HOUSES. NUMEROUS TREES AND
            POWERPOLES WERE SNAPPED THROUGHOUT ITS PATH BEFORE IT
            DISSIPATED NEAR BRAND ROAD. PATH LENGTH...7.5 MILES.
            MAXIMUM WIDTH...150 YARDS. EF1 WITH 110 MPH PEAK WIND.

&&

19