Areal Flood Warning 45, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

.UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE REGION AND A LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAXIMUM AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE MS GENERATED A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF POTENT STORMS AND ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST 5
HOURS OR SO. THE FINAL PROBLEMATIC CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IS NOW RAINING ITSELF OUT...BUT NOW MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IS SPARKING SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES. THIS NEW ACTIVITY HAS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE (< 1000 J/KG) TO WORK WITH...BUT SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS
NOW QUITE LOW AND SO THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS
RATHER MARGINAL AT BEST. THEREFORE...THE HWO WILL BE KEPT CLEAR. OF
SLIGHTLY MORE CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR A FEW MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLATED
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO. THE SPECIFIC POP/WX FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WAS SKEWED HARD TOWARDS RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON OBSERVABLE WEATHER
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ALSO THREW IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT OWING TO ALL OF TODAY'S RAIN. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER AREAS
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENOUGH CLOUDS ALOFT TO KEEP DENSE FOG TO
BECOMING MUCH OF AN ISSUE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DUE TO
CEILING ISSUES. SOME RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL
(PARTICULARLY ACROSS GLH/GWO). ANY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO HBG/PIB. EXPECT FLIGHT
CATS TO ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD BREAK OUT INTO VFR FLIGHT CATS
BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE IN MUCH
SHORTER SUPPLY TODAY...AT LEAST IN COMPARISON TO TODAY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING FUELED BY
DECENT CAPE VALUES PAIRED WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE
MOST LIKELY. WITH ABOUT 35 KT BULK SHEAR THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING.
ONE STORM THOUGH NEAR BROOKHAVEN ATTM SEEMS TO BE OVER-ACHIEVING
WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BY 12Z EXPECT
IT TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. INSTABILITY REALLY STARTS TO WANE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND
NEVER REAPPEARS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORMS TOMORROW.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO SETTLE IN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
CLOUDS REMAIN SOCKED IN TO THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10/

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL HAVE AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AS WE START WITH A REX
BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHER
LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT BAY. WITH THIS PATTERN STILL
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE REX BLOCK PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK THIS
WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BECOME FIXED ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE POSITION SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE ARKLAMISS GOING FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. KEPT ANY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SQUEEZED OUT BY TWO BLOCKING RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FEATURE.
THIS WILL BECOME AN HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING
A DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  68  54  73 /  47  41  21  12
MERIDIAN      56  66  52  72 /  27  43  24  14
VICKSBURG     59  72  57  75 /  64  36  20  14
HATTIESBURG   59  70  55  74 /  81  33  23  15
NATCHEZ       60  72  57  75 /  42  35  20  15
GREENVILLE    59  71  55  73 /  61  26  17  15
GREENWOOD     58  69  54  73 /  62  30  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
160145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
842 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
04/14/2016                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CITY.
            NUMEROUS STREETS ARE UNDER WATER.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
04/14/2016                   FORREST            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GORDONS CREEK IS FLOODING ACROSS 21ST AVENUE AND ADELINE
            STREET IN HATTIESBURG. IT HAS RISEN SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
            LAST FEW MINUTES. YARDS AND PARKING LOTS ARE FLOODED.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S JAYESS              31.34N 90.21W
04/14/2016                   WALTHALL           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN OR UPROOTED AND A FEW
            POWERLINES BROUGHT DOWN BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOPEKA                  31.42N 90.19W
04/14/2016                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN OR UPROOTED AND A FEW
            POWERLINES BROUGHT DOWN BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG THE
            SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMMUNITY

&&

BRYANT