Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
750 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE LIT UP WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM BROOKHAVEN TO JACKSON EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO COLUMBUS. THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING AND SLOW
TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS AND HAVE LED TO SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3AM FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA BUT THE ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF OUR BEFORE
THEN. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

..SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

DISCUSSION...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE WEATHER
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
COME IN THE FORM OF MAINLY DISCRETE CELLS. WHILE OUR 19Z SOUNDING
FAILED...OTHER LOCAL RAOBS INDICATED THAT THE MORNING CAP THAT WAS IN
PLACE HAD BEEN ERODED BY 18Z. THIS HAS HELPED THE MORNING SHOWERS TAP
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 60KTS AS INFLUENCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET...ANY OF THESE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ROTATE AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW
CONFIRMED TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY WITH
THE DISCRETE CELLS/SMALLER LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE SHEAR/HELICITY/INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED.
HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL
INTO A SQUALL LINE BEFORE EXITING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT WHICH IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS
TODAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL AND EXPECT THAT
ANY THAT TRAIN COULD BRING 1-3 INCHES. WILL LEAVE THE LIMITED RISK IN
THIS REGION. GOING HAZARDS/HWO WILL BE KEPT AS IS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LIMITED GRADIENT WIND. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY AND WILL DROP THAT FROM
THE HWO. /28/

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF OVER THE PINE BELT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT NUDGES EASTWARD. MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS AND GOOD
INSOLATION AS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE APPEARS LIKELY. BELIEVE MANY AREAS
WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SLACK OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH
THE SKY REMAINING CLEAR, FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
/DL/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL TEND TO ANCHOR A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES SEVERAL DEG F
BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN IDEAL SFC HIGH
POSITION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS QUICKLY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
DEFINITELY PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO WIDELY VARIED QPF SIGNALS. IT LOOKED YESTERDAY LIKE A MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WAS THE WAY TO GO...AND THAT STILL MAY BE THE
CASE...BUT THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS NOW THAT WE COULD SEE THE
MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
RESULTING IN QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL RAINFALL THAT COULD MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE PHASING
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT
HAPPEN IN TIME TO BRING US ANY WINTRY PRECIP. LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /EC/

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF GLH AND VFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT GLH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TSRA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY E MS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY WED MORNING. VFR CONDS AREAWIDE ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  58  31  51 /  96  11  11   6
MERIDIAN      54  62  32  52 /  99  21  11   7
VICKSBURG     43  56  31  51 /  85  12  11   5
HATTIESBURG   58  65  36  55 /  99  24  11   4
NATCHEZ       46  58  33  51 /  87  12  11   5
GREENVILLE    42  53  30  47 /  24  10  11   5
GREENWOOD     43  53  28  48 /  83  11  11   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/28/EC

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