Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
412 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

A strong system will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the region late this afternoon into this evening. Some thunderstorms
could be strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary
threat. The best chance for severe weather is west of I 69.
Otherwise, cold air filters in tonight and into the weekend. Highs
on Saturday are only expected to reach around 40 degrees. It will
also be windy, especially Saturday where wind gusts could reach up
to 50 mph near Lake Michigan. Rain showers will transition to
snow showers by Saturday morning, with little to no accumulations
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 409 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

An area of storms was intensifying near the Illinois/Indiana
state line at 4 pm EST and was moving northeast ahead of a cold
front this afternoon. Environment conditions favor bowing segments
including QLCS. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded part of
northern Indiana to a slight risk of severe storms. Expect the
best chance for mainly isolated severe storms is west of
Interstate 69 in northern Indiana. Wind gusts approaching 60 mph
are possible. An isolated tornado is also possible in the bowing
segments.

Much colder air will sweep across the area tonight. Very warm Lake
Michigan waters for this time of year will favor lake enhanced and
eventually lake effect rain and snow showers becoming all snow
showers Saturday as 850 mb drop to around -10C. After collaboration
with surrounding offices, have increased snow amounts over mainly
far southern Lower Michigan to around 1 inch. Gut feeling is at
least initially the snow will accumulate on mainly grassy areas. It
doesn't appear there will be any travel issues until possibly late
in the afternoon. Roads could get slick Saturday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Have issued a wind advisory for
Saturday based on gradient winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45
mph. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible near Lake Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 409 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

Inversion heights will be low Sunday, but still may be high enough
for light snow showers. The dendritic growth zone may be entirely
above the cloud layer later Sunday, allowing a mix of precipitation
or a changeover to all rain with any lingering showers.
Precipitation should end late in the date as the system lifts
northeast.

Otherwise, chilly weather Sunday will be followed by temperatures
moderating slowly through next week. Another system will bring
rain and possibly a rain/snow mix to the area during the middle of
the week, but it doesn't look like there will be any major impacts
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

Certainly a complex forecast for this TAF period, with all seasons
of weather involved. A low pressure system will move across the
Great Lakes region through the weekend, starting this afternoon.
Winds will be the primary focus, especially at KSBN. South to
southwest winds will continue to gust to nearly 30 mph for the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight period, gradually
becoming west-northwest by Saturday. Gusts towards early Saturday
afternoon are looking to be slightly higher than what I included
in the TAF, possibly reaching up to 35-40 mph-with the highest
gusts at KSBN. Otherwise, expect showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to move through KSBN around the 23-02z time frame,
and around 01z-6z at KFWA. Given strong winds aloft, any heavier
showers or thunderstorms could mix down wind gusts of 50 mph or
greater. The best chances for this to occur would be at KSBN this
afternoon/evening, as thunderstorms are less likely at KFWA. Lake
effect rain/snow showers are possible late tonight at KSBN, with
visibilities and ceilings dropping to the MVFR range. Snow is
possible at KFWA, but given lower confidence kept this out of the
TAF for now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
     Saturday for INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>024.

MI...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

INZ012>016-020-022>024-191000-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...
MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...
GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER
337 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 /237 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THUS SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>006-008-017-MIZ077>079-191000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-NOBLE-WHITLEY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...
COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON
337 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 /237 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ007-009-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-191000-
STEUBEN-DE KALB-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...FREMONT...AUBURN...GARRETT...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
337 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-191000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
337 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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