Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening
mainly near and north of U.S. highway 30. There is a chance of
thunderstorms south of this area. A few stronger storms with
gusty winds and small hail are possible but widespread severe
weather is not expected. Low temperatures tonight will drop into
the upper 60s. Similar weather is expected Thursday with a small chance
for afternoon showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Two primary short waves being watched for convection this evening.
First can be seen nicely on VIS imagery moving across lower
Michigan. This wave has been responsible for generating some
thunderstorms which have hugged our CWA boundary with KGRR.
Mesoanalysis shows modest instability with 1500-2000 j/kg mixed
layer CAPE and deeper bulk shear values around 20-30 knots. Just
enough instability and shear to note stronger updrafts and potential
downdrafts with 40-60 mph isolated gusts possible along with some
small hail. So far storms have struggled but expect a slight uptick
in development and strength rest of afternoon and early evening as a
secondary weak short wave over northern Illinois propagates east and
helps enhance convection. Already seeing this to some degree over
northeast IL. Do not expect widespread coverage given limited low
level convergence and no strong forcing. Good low level lapse rates
and weak convergence will be the focus. Hires guidance keeps
pointing to weak remnant surface boundary sinking south overnight
and some possible isolated development in our far southwest. Kept a
slight chance in the west until late tonight for this possibility.

Similar situation on Thursday with dirty flow aloft carrying weak
short waves across the area with modest instability and even
slightly weaker deep layer shear. Low chance pops continue with
models showing varying solutions for development and coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016

More of the same for Friday with weak short waves and instability
present so continued trend of afternoon low chance pops. Best
chance for showers and storms arrives later Saturday into Saturday
night ahead of strong short wave and cold front which will usher
in cooler and more comfortable air. Sharp short wave trough
expected to drop south out of Canada into Northern Plains Friday.
This will lead to surface low development along cold front. Low
will deepen and move into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday as
short wave drives cold front into our area. Still a bit too early
for severe weather assessment but certainly possible given regime
change and stronger westerlies sinking southward. Instability
still in question with timing and amount of cloud cover. Will be
something to watch but for now likely pops for showers and
thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall possible given Gulf of Mexico tap
but certainly nothing like what NW Indiana saw Monday.

Cooler air arrives Sunday into early next week. Northwest winds on
Sunday likely to produce a moderate to high swim risk day. Highs
look to remain in the lower to middle 70s Sunday and Monday with
return to upper 70s and low 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Afternoon instability combined with an approaching shortwave aloft
has led to cumulus development across much of the area, with
primarily VFR conditions. The shortwave has managed to generate a
few showers and thunderstorms, particularly to the north of the
TAF sites in Lower Michigan, however-as of 18z development over
Indiana has been non-existent. Models are still in disagreement
over shower/storm development at this point-but it's not out of
the question. For now left it out of the TAF given low
confidence, but will continue to closely monitor. Otherwise, the
focus turns to fog development again tonight. Winds will again be
light with lingering low level moisture-so thinking things will be
similar to last night. Guidance is not as pessimistic on ceiling
heights, but they bring visibilities down to around 1 mile or
less between 8-12Z. For now kept things IFR, with visibilities
down to 2 miles at KSBN where conditions look most favorable and 3
miles at FWA. LIFR conditions are certainly in the realm of
possibilities but will leave out until the next TAF issuance where
we can re- evaluate.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD/Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...MCD

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

INZ003>009-012-014-016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-182000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
MARSHALL-KOSCIUSKO-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...DOWAGIAC...
CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...
MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...
BRYAN...MONTPELIER...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...SWANTON...DELTA
359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 /259 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KNOX TO DEKLAB
INDIANA TO NAPOLEON OHIO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOME RIVERS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH BEND TO NORTH OF PLYMOUTH DUE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-
182000-
PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-
PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...
NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...
OTTAWA...LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...
VAN WERT...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 /259 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-182000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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