Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
304 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A couple of upper air disturbances will move across the area today
and tonight causing scattered thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the area Thursday, continuing the chance of storms.
High pressure will move across the area Friday and Saturday
providing fair weather with temperatures a bit below normal. As
the high moves east Sunday, warmer and more humid air along with a
chance of thunderstorms will return to the area and continue into
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Weak MCV remnants into nw IN as of 18z is expected to spark isolated
to scattered convection into areas mainly along/east of US 31 late
this afternoon. Moderate boundary layer destabilization given slight
cooling aloft over a warm/moist near sfc layer more than adequate
for development, but rather paltry warm sector wind field and weak
forcing (capping concerns) does bring coverage/probability into
question...hence the 30-50 percent type PoPs. The main threats for
the remainder of the afternoon will be lightning and isolated wind
gusts > 50 mph.

Another/stronger convectively aided shortwave over IA/northern MO
will continue to progress east and provide the next opportunity for
more widespread convection this evening into the early overnight (01-
06z). Stronger wind fields and forcing on leading edge of synoptic
scale height falls should allow upscale growth of MCS over eastern
IA/MO into IL early this evening. What happens east from here
remains of low confidence given outrun from slightly better upper
support (shear/buoyancy balance offset) and potential for stronger
bowing segment to focus more along leftover instability
gradient/outflow through central IL/IN. This gradient/outflow will
be the key as it attempts to mix north late this afternoon/evening
possibly bringing the severe threat north into our area (best
chances south of the US 30 corridor in Indiana). Any bowing segment
would present a wind damage threat and potentially a brief spinup
tornado. Stay tuned for updates this evening. Mainly dry conditions
are then expected in wake of composite outflow later
tonight/Thursday morning.

The main cold front will translate southeast through the local area
Thursday afternoon as mid-level trough works east through the Great
Lakes region. Will finally have the deep background flow/shear
necessary for better organization tomorrow...yet weak frontal
convergence/deep layer ascent and southward exit of deeper moisture
tied to tonight's composite outflow/pre-frontal trough should limit
the severe threat/coverage...although low chances warranted mainly
along/southeast of US-24. Temperatures will likely overachieve
somewhat tomorrow given deep mixing and lowering dewpoints under a
mostly/partly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Friday into Saturday will be characterized by much cooler/less humid
conditions as fresh canadian airmass builds in post-frontal. Passage
of a weak secondary trough on Friday is allowing some model guidance
print out some light QPF. Opted to retain silent 10 PoP given dry
airmass and weak forcing along this secondary feature. Sfc high
pressure then builds in Friday night through Saturday night as
subsidence/height rises in flat flow.

An upper level ridge (595-600 dm at 500 mb) and associated dome of
extreme heat will build/expand across the central US later Sunday
through next week. Theta-e ridge/frontal boundary on the northeast
fringe of this feature will likely be positioned in the vicinity
late Sunday through the middle of next resulting in chances for
showers/storms in ring of fire type pattern. Heat/humidity levels
will also gradually increase, especially by late next week/weekend
(just beyond this forecast period) as upper ridge becomes better
established into the Ohio Valley and western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Extremely low confidence forecast with respect to thunderstorm
potential later this afternoon through this evening. First
wave/mesovort across NE IL into NW IN is expected to kick off
convection across terminals mid afternoon through early evening.
Left previous forecast timing for TEMPO TSRA per hi-res guidance
trends. Introduced VCTS mention from 02-06Z associated with second
wave currently across central IA that will push east over the next
several hours. Also introduced MVFR cigs/visbys at KFWA toward
daybreak Wednesday, with ample low level moisture, weakening
gradient and weak subsidence behind aforementioned secondary wave.
Drier air pushing into KSBN precludes MVFR mention for them.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JT/NG
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...NG

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-141000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
411 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 /311 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALSO, THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-141000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
411 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STORMS WITH WINDS
GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>