Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

A cold front dropping across the area will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and brief torrential rainfall. Quiet conditions are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will return
northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks out of
the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized
heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will range from 60 to 65. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast

Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon.  A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Thunderstorms which initiated along enhanced low level moisture
axis have now slipped south of the terminals. Temps and dew points
have recovered quickly to the north of these storms, with greatest
MUCAPE axis across far northwest Indiana and southwest lower
Michigan. With upper trough gradually sinking south across Great
Lakes and frontal boundary about to push across northern Indiana,
hard to completely discount isolated thunder developing over next
few hours, but will omit from TAFS with low probabilities for
terminal point forecasts. Quiet weather expected for the remainder
of the TAF period, with gusty west-northwest winds on Tuesday
to around 20 knots with mainly clear skies.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Marsili

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-212045-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 /332 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 6 THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-212045-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE BIPPUS            40.92N 85.56W
06/20/2016                   HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GRAIN BIN BLOWN OVER AT 6654 W 700 N.

&&

NDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
823 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

MIZ079-080-210130-
BRANCH-ST. JOSEPH-
823 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BRANCH AND NORTHEASTERN
ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

AT 823 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COLON...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STURGIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...COLON...RAY...NOTTAWA...KINDERHOOK...BATAVIA...
CALIFORNIA...BURR OAK...GILEAD...MARBLE LAKE...FINDLEY...LAKE OF THE
WOODS...FAIRFAX...MATTESON LAKE...COLDWATER LAKE...EAST GILEAD AND
WASEPI.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
12.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 8483 4181 8482 4176 8483 4176 8520
      4193 8547 4202 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 301DEG 27KT 4194 8534

SLL