Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
416 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

A cold front dropping across the area will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and brief torrential rainfall. Quiet conditions are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will return
northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks out of
the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized
heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will range from 60 to 65. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast

Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon.  A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016

KIWX radar showing line of SH/TSRA dropping slowly southeast this
afternoon. Airmass beginning to destabilize out ahead of approaching
cold front but coverage of precip remains questionable in such a
weakly forced environment. Therefore will handle KSBN with a TEMPO
group while maintaining VCTS at KFWA. Gusty W/SW winds this
afternoon will shift to the NW this evening as cold front passes
through and diminish to less than 10kts tonight. VFR conditions
following frontal passage as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Logsdon

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-212045-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 /332 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 6 THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-212045-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
432 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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