Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
700 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Low pressure will be moving through the area this evening into
tonight which will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. There is a potential for some widespread severe
weather this evening through tonight with damaging wind gusts,
heavy rainfall, large hail, and tornadoes all of the threat
concerns. The low pressure will then be moving on to the east on
Thursday with low rain chances in the morning and then dry in the
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

As suspected yda overnight convn and swwd displacement of
composite outflw/wmfnt keeping precip at bay acrs the CWA this
aftn. Decaying upstream stratiform ovr ne IL may hold on long
enough to bring a sprinkle/lt shra to wrn areas yet this aftn hwvr
chcs appear minimal.

Primary focus conts to side w/sewd apch tonight of potent nrn stream
sw trough ovr ne ND this aftn. Sfc reflection back west ovr ern NE
will shift ewd into wrn IN late tonight. Ramping ll waa will aide in
newd mix of wmfnt twd the highway 24 corridor w/commensurate
greatest risk for severe storms btwn 02-07Z generally swwd of a ksbn-
kaoh line. Hwvr most concerning is overlap of extreme shear and mod
cape which point to an enhanced tornado risk alg and sw of the
highway 30 ovr wrn zones mid-lt evening. In addn...nw-se oriented
fntl zone in tandem w/protracted window of mid lvl forcing and
considerable ll mstr flux ewd of sfc cyclone suggest some
substantial rainfall psbl overnight. Hwvr contd dry antecedent conds
and mixed highres signals on where heaviest rainfall may fall lends
no confidence in delineating a potential flood watch and will defer
to oncoming shift.

Otrws besides a lingering shra/isold storm Thu am...general post
fntl drying xpcd to envelope CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Ridging sfc and aloft will bld/expand ewd acrs the Grtlks to
start this pd ahd of intense/deep sw trough progressing slowly ewd
through srn Canada. As surmised yda...warming aloft assocd/w hgt
rises within crest of mid lvl ridge will yield dry wx into Sun
morning followed by a chc of storms Sun aftn/Sun night alg swwd
trailing fntl bndry. Fairly sharp/aggressive ll thermal ridge xpcd
to bld ahd of this ftr w/resulting warm temps this weekend into
Mon.

Aft that repeat dvlpmnt of ern Conus mean troughing and expansive
sfc ridging acrs the lakes will bring the prevailing dry/seasonable
pattn of the past few weeks back into the area for the remainder of
the week as it appears now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

KIWX radar indicating band of SHRA with some embedded thunder
extending from KFWA back to KSBN and up into southern lake Michigan.
They are moving southeastward and expect to be impacting both sites
to begin this TAF cycle but still carry VFR cigs/vsbys. Additional
storms now beginning to develop in eastern Iowa will become strong
to severe as they move into the area after 02Z and drop both sites
down to MVFR. Fog potential for the early morning hours as surface
low moves over the area and rain exits to the east. Will keep at
MVFR for now but potential is there for IFR.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lothamer
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Logsdon

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
234 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

INZ003>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-231000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...
BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...
PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...DOWAGIAC...
CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...
MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...
BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...
CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
234 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 /134 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARD LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO
THE 90S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL SIZE AND HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-231000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
234 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ012>016-020-022>024-032-231000-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...
MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...
GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...MARION...
GAS CITY...UPLAND
234 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 /134 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING ALONG WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO
THE 90S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL SIZE AND HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
913 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

MIZ078>080-230145-
BRANCH-ST. JOSEPH-CASS-
913 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BRANCH...ST. JOSEPH AND
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MARCELLUS...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THREE RIVERS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...BRONSON...CONSTANTINE...WHITE PIGEON...
CENTREVILLE...MARCELLUS...COLON...NOTTAWA...FLOWERFIELD...
KINDERHOOK...FAWN RIVER...BATAVIA...LEONIDAS...CALIFORNIA...MENDON...
BURR OAK...GILEAD...SHERWOOD AND MOORE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 7.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8530 4177 8484 4177 8563 4207 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 317DEG 48KT 4203 8578

JAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
932 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             2 S MOORE PARK          41.99N 85.63W
06/22/2016  M0.88 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MCD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
932 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

INZ006-007-230230-
STEUBEN-LAGRANGE-
932 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN STEUBEN AND EASTERN
LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

AT 931 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STURGIS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAGRANGE AROUND 940 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE HOWE...GOLDEN LAKE...
HAMILTON LAKE...WOODRUFF...BRIGHTON...PLEASANT LAKE...INDIANOLA...BIG
LONG LAKE...STROH AND ONTARIO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 341 AND 350.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 134.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 8480 4154 8531 4176 8561 4176 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 317DEG 49KT 4179 8543

JAL