Alert archive / Indiana / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 12, NWS Northern Indiana

August 16, 2016Berrien County, Michigan; Elkhart County, Saint Joseph County, Indiana

NWS Northern Indiana issued this river flood warning at Aug 16, 2016, 4:00 AM EDT for Berrien County, Michigan; Elkhart County, Saint Joseph County, Indiana. It took effect at Aug 16, 2016, 12:21 PM EDT. It was in force for 54 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 2016, 4:00 AM EDT (08:00 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 16, 2016, 12:21 PM EDT
Expired
Aug 18, 2016, 6:48 PM EDT
In force
54 hr
Issued by
NWS Northern Indiana
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Elkhart County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Berrien County, MI

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point St. Joseph River (MI/IN) at Niles (NILM4). The gauge peaked at 9.61 ft at Aug 16, 2016, 6:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor5101508/1608/1708/1808/19
Action stage
7 ft
Minor stage
11 ft
Moderate stage
14 ft
Major stage
15 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04101500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

657 
WGUS43 KIWX 160800
FLWIWX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers...

  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. Joseph 
  and Berrien Counties

.Very heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches since yesterday afternoon has 
resulted in rises on the Saint Joseph River. Minor river flooding is 
expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC039-141-MIC021-170800-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0011.160816T1200Z-160817T2000Z/
/SBNI3.1.ER.160816T1200Z.160816T1800Z.160816T2000Z.NO/
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* from this morning to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 1.0 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday morning 
  and crest near 5.6 feet around  2 PM Tuesday August 16 and fall 
  below flood stage around  4 PM Tuesday August 16.
* At 5.5 feet...The river reaches flood stage with the lowest 
  residential areas beginning to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-170800-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0012.160816T1621Z-160818T2248Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.160816T1621Z.160817T0600Z.160817T2248Z.NO/
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* from this afternoon to Thursday evening.
* At 3 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday afternoon 
  and crest near 11.7 feet around  2 AM Wednesday August 17 and fall 
  below flood stage around  6 PM Wednesday August 17.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent to the 
  river, Island Park, and basement flooding of residences along River
  and Mairmont Streets in Niles can be expected.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$
5 follow-up statements
177 
WGUS83 KIWX 161521
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1121 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. Joseph 
  and Berrien Counties 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Kankakee River at Davis affecting La Porte...Starke and St. Joseph
  Counties 
 
.Flooding and rises on area rivers due to 5-10 inches of rainfall over the 
past 24 hours will continue. Additional significant rainfall is not expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC091-141-149-171521-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DAVI3.2.ER.160816T1051Z.160817T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1021 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kankakee River at Davis
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.0 feet around 1 
  AM Wednesday August 17 and begin falling.
* At 13.0 feet...Extensive agricultural flooding is in progress.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.2 feet which occurred 
  on Apr 20 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8667 4144 8661 4130 8673 4131 8679
      4143 8670                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171520-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160818T0900Z/
/SBNI3.1.ER.160817T0224Z.160817T0600Z.160817T0900Z.NO/
1121 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday night and 
  crest near 5.8 feet around  2 AM Wednesday August 17. It will fall below
  flood stage around 5 AM Wednesday August 17.
* At 6.0 feet...Flooding is confined to mostly park land and golf 
  courses. Northshore Drive...Leeper Park and Petro golf courses 
  begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171520-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0012.160817T1520Z-160819T1030Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.160817T1520Z.160818T0000Z.160818T1030Z.NO/
1121 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* from Wednesday morning to Friday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.6 feet and is temporarily falling.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning
  and crest near 11.5 feet around 8 PM Wednesday August 17. It will fall 
  below flood stage around 6 AM Thursday August 18.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent to the 
  river, Island Park, and basement flooding of residences along River
  and Mairmont Streets in Niles can be expected.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$
317 
WGUS83 KIWX 161837
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Kankakee River at Davis affecting La Porte...Starke and St. Joseph
  Counties 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties 
 

.Write a short synopsis about the causes of the flooding after the 
dot. Do not remove the dot. Remove the stars and this message before 
sending. Thank you.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC091-141-149-171837-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DAVI3.2.ER.160816T1051Z.160817T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
137 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kankakee River at Davis
* until further notice.
* At 1 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.4 feet around 1 
  AM Wednesday August 17 and begin falling.
* At 13.0 feet...Extensive agricultural flooding is in progress.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.2 feet which occurred 
  on Apr 20 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8667 4144 8661 4130 8673 4131 8679
      4143 8670                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171837-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160818T0900Z/
/SBNI3.1.ER.160817T0224Z.160817T0600Z.160817T0900Z.NO/
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday night and 
  crest near 5.8 feet around 2 AM Wednesday August 17 and fall below
  flood stage around 5 AM Wednesday August 17.
* At 6.0 feet...Flooding is confined to mostly park land and golf 
  courses. Northshore Drive...Leeper Park and Petro golf courses 
  begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171837-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0012.160817T1520Z-160819T1030Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.160817T1520Z.160818T0000Z.160818T1030Z.NO/
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* from Wednesday morning to Friday morning.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.1 feet and Steady.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning
  and crest near 11.5 feet around 8 PM Wednesday August 17 and fall 
  below flood stage around 6 AM Thursday August 18.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent to the 
  river, Island Park, and basement flooding of residences along River
  and Mairmont Streets in Niles can be expected.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$
715 
WGUS83 KIWX 162134
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
534 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. Joseph 
  and Berrien Counties 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Kankakee River at Davis affecting La Porte...Starke and St. Joseph
  Counties 
 

.Rivers were rising due to runoff from the very heavy rainfall that occurred 
Monday and Monday night. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC091-141-149-172134-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DAVI3.2.ER.160816T1051Z.160817T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
434 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kankakee River at Davis
* until further notice.
* At 3 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.4 feet around  1 
  AM Wednesday August 17 and begin falling.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.2 feet which occurred 
  on Apr 20 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8667 4144 8661 4130 8673 4131 8679
      4143 8670                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-172133-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160818T1200Z/
/SBNI3.1.ER.160817T1200Z.160817T1200Z.160817T1200Z.NO/
534 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* until Thursday morning.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near flood stage around  8 AM 
  Wednesday August 17.
* At 5.5 feet...The river reaches flood stage with the lowest 
  residential areas beginning to flood.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 6.0 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 28 2008.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-172133-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0012.160817T1724Z-160819T0300Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.160817T1724Z.160817T1800Z.160818T0300Z.NO/
534 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening.
* At 4 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday 
  afternoon  and crest near 11.1 feet around  2 PM Wednesday August 
  17 and fall below flood stage around 11 PM Wednesday August 17.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent to the 
  river, Island Park, and basement flooding of residences along River
  and Mairmont Streets in Niles can be expected.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.3 feet which occurred 
  on Apr 25 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$
154 
WGUS83 KIWX 170132
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. Joseph 
  and Berrien Counties 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties 
 
.Rivers were rising due to runoff from the very heavy rainfall that occurred 
Monday and Monday night. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC039-141-MIC021-180132-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160818T1200Z/
/SBNI3.1.ER.160817T1200Z.160817T1200Z.160817T1200Z.NO/
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* until Thursday morning.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near flood stage around  8 AM 
  Wednesday August 17.
* At 5.5 feet...The river reaches flood stage with the lowest 
  residential areas beginning to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-180132-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0012.160818T0000Z-160819T0000Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.160818T0000Z.160818T0000Z.160818T0000Z.NO/
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.7 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near flood stage around  8 PM 
  Wednesday August 17.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent to the 
  river, Island Park, and basement flooding of residences along River
  and Mairmont Streets in Niles can be expected.


&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$
770 
WGUS83 KIWX 171509
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1109 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend affecting Elkhart...St. 
  Joseph and Berrien Counties
  Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles affecting Elkhart...St. Joseph 
  and Berrien Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Kankakee River at Davis affecting La Porte...Starke and St. Joseph
  Counties 
 

.The Kankakee river at Davis is cresting and will gradually subside this week. 
Additional significant rainfall is not expected at this time.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC091-141-149-181509-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DAVI3.2.ER.160816T1051Z.160817T1500Z.160817T1500Z.NR/
1009 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kankakee River at Davis
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.8 feet and cresting.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast 
to continue through this weekend.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* At 13.0 feet...Extensive agricultural flooding is in progress.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8667 4144 8661 4130 8673 4131 8679
      4143 8670                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171539-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160818T1200Z/
/SBNI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at South Bend
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 4.4 feet
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* At 5.5 feet...The river reaches flood stage with the lowest 
  residential areas beginning to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8629 4178 8628 4178 8626 4166 8621
      4166 8624                       

$$

INC039-141-MIC021-171539-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160819T0000Z/
/NILM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Saint Joseph River Michigan at Niles
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 8.2 feet 
  Wednesday morning. The river will crest again below flood stage
  near 8.5 feet around 8 PM Wednesday August 17.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8639 4192 8634 4183 8625 4178 8626
      4178 8627 4184 8638             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 16, 2:35 AM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 2:35 AM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2016

A low pressure system will move over the region this week,
bringing much needed rain to the area. Steadier rain will
continue overnight and into Tuesday, with a chance for
thunderstorms. There is potential for flooding in areas that see
the heaviest rain. Lows tonight will be in the 60's. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the 70's.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2016

KIWX radar indicating moderate rainfall overspreading much of the
area this afternoon with some indications of convective elements
producing locally heavy rain with instantaneous precip rates of
1-2 inches per hour. First in a series of shortwaves currently
over central Indiana has set up deformation axis and resulting
banded precip along IN/MI border ahead of the main area of precip
that is now moving up through the southern CWA. HIRES guidance in
line with going forecast of biggest push of moderate/heavy rain
will occur this evening through midnight tonight primarily over
the western half of the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicting upper
trof axis over the southern plains with decent low level flow
ahead of it providing increased moisture flux into the region.
Short wave energy ejecting and moving N/NE into the region will
provide needed forcing to act on moisture as it combines with
upper level diffluence in right rear of jet axis. Only limiting
factor will be lack of instability which will limit flash flood
potential and favor a more widespread moderate rain
event...especially in light of FFG greater than 3 inches over
large portion where heaviest QPF is projected. But with potential
for localized heavy rain embedded with convective elements...no
changes planned with current headlines and will maintain FFA.
Associated surface low will track N/NE into northwest Indiana
tonight...then slowly progress eastward during the day
Tuesday...dragging trailing cold front across the area and lead to
diminishing chances for precip. A short break in precip in the
wake of this system before northern stream zonal flow brings
shortwave into the region Wednesday afternoon/night...but with
only low chance POPs. Humid condition will persist with
temperatures near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2016

Main focus for the long term will be northern stream system
moving across the northern portion of the Canadian Provinces and
into the Hudson bay. Cold front associated with this system will
approach the region on Saturday with a decent return flow setting
up ahead it with strengthening 850mb moisture transport over the
region Saturday afternoon along with the potential for moderate
instability if timing remains favorable as ensemble means have
CAPEs over 2000J/kg. Only reflection in grids this far out will be
to maintain going forecast of high chance POPs. Cold front clears
the area on Sunday and sets the stage for a cooler drier Canadian
high pressure system to build into the region with dewpoints
dropping back down into the mid 50s and comfortable highs on
Sunday and Monday of 75-80F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Sheared upper level trough will continue to slowly lift northeast
and dampen overnight across lower Michigan. Strongest moisture
convergence has shifted north of the terminals, although scattered
showers are still expected through the morning hours. Eventual
focus for showers and thunderstorms should shift southeast of the
terminals by the afternoon hours. Not much change to previous TAFs
with deterioration to IFR cigs overnight with gradual improvement
during the day Tuesday.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ003>008-012>017-020-022>024.

MI...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ077>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Marsili

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 5:38 AM EDT, 22 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
538 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-160945-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
538 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /438 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 69. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE
INFORMATION. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE
INFORMATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS
AND ANY FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-160945-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
538 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 16, 2:29 AM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
229 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E INDIAN VILLAGE      41.71N 86.21W
08/16/2016  M7.77 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

NDM
Local storm report, Aug 16, 2:38 AM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLYMOUTH                41.35N 86.31W
08/16/2016  M2.23 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

NDM
Local storm report, Aug 16, 2:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E CHAIN-O-LAKES       41.71N 86.32W
08/16/2016  M7.72 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   ASOS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOUTH BEND AIRPORT.

&&

NDM
Local storm report, Aug 16, 2:55 AM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STEVENSVILLE            42.01N 86.53W
08/16/2016  M4.20 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

NDM
Local storm report, Aug 16, 3:15 AM EDT, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E CHAIN-O-LAKES       41.71N 86.32W
08/16/2016  M7.72 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   ASOS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOUTH BEND AIRPORT.

0200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E INDIAN VILLAGE      41.71N 86.21W
08/16/2016  M7.77 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DOWAGIAC                41.98N 86.11W
08/16/2016  M2.97 INCH       CASS               MI   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CASSOPOLIS              41.91N 86.01W
08/16/2016  M4.76 INCH       CASS               MI   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. .

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BERRIEN SPRINGS         41.95N 86.34W
08/16/2016  M2.44 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERVLIET              42.19N 86.26W
08/16/2016  M2.22 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1254 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STEVENSVILLE            42.01N 86.53W
08/16/2016  M4.20 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1220 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MISHAWAKA          41.65N 86.20W
08/16/2016  M6.58 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW ROSELAND           41.72N 86.26W
08/16/2016                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES AND
            STRANDED VEHICLES/VEHICLE RESCUES IN THE
            SOUTH BEND VICINITY.

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLYMOUTH                41.35N 86.31W
08/16/2016  M2.23 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

1111 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E CHAIN-O-LAKES       41.71N 86.32W
08/15/2016  M5.78 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   ASOS

            SOUTH BEND AIRPORT EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL
            SINCE THIS MORNING.

1049 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW LYDICK            41.67N 86.43W
08/15/2016  M4.51 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   MESONET

            .

1048 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE CLARKS            41.11N 86.84W
08/15/2016  M7.64 INCH       PULASKI            IN   MESONET

            .

1041 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE FISH LAKE         41.59N 86.54W
08/15/2016  M4.38 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   MESONET

            .

1015 PM     FLOOD            2 SW LA PORTE           41.59N 86.73W
08/15/2016                   LA PORTE           IN   COCORAHS

            SOME LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED. STORM
            TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3.88 INCHES SINE 7 AM.

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Aug 16, 3:25 AM EDT, 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE SOUTH BEND         41.69N 86.25W
08/16/2016  M6.46 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

NDM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 9:10 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningIWXBerrien, Cass3 hr
Aug 15, 11:08 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningIWXBerrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph15 hr
Aug 15, 11:51 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningIWXBerrien, Cass4 hr
Aug 16, 12:44 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningIWXBerrien, Cass9 hr
Aug 16, 4:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningIWXBerrien36 hr
Aug 16, 4:11 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningIWXBerrien, Cass12 hr
Aug 15, 8:07 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXGrant23 min
Aug 15, 8:23 PM EDTTornado WarningIWXGrant, Huntington, Miami, Wabash37 min
Aug 15, 9:06 PM EDTTornado WarningIWXAllen, Huntington, Wabash, Whitley24 min
Aug 15, 9:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXWhitley27 min
Aug 15, 10:04 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXNoble26 min
Aug 16, 4:10 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningIWXLaPorte, Saint Joseph, Starke17 days
Aug 16, 4:15 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningIWXElkhart, Marshall, Saint Joseph24 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Indiana, 2016River Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.