Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place through the early
part of the work week, with chances for thunderstorms at times
through Wednesday, before a broad area of surface high pressure
moves into the area and brings cooler and drier conditions to
central Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Isolated showers and storms have managed to develop in a couple of
spots this afternoon, but the bulk of this activity has remained
along an axis north of central indiana and scattered to the south.
Cannot rule out isolated storms through the afternoon and early
evening and will carry low pops as a result. Any activity should
dissipate with the loss of heating and the majority of the night
will be dry as a result.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable overnight, and temps should
be near persistence with no change in airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Will again carry thunder chances mainly tomorrow afternoon as in
the absence of more significant upper level support, any storms
will be largely diurnally driven. Surface high pressure nudging
further into the area should provide a dry spell Monday night into
much of Tuesday before an upstream cold front begins to approach
the area. The best chance for storms with this frontal system will
be Wednesday as it traverses the area.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period, with
the exception of a minor bump upward on Monday highs as
thicknesses suggest similar temperatures to today should be
reached.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Big change in store for the long term as models and ensembles in
good agreement that strong high pressure in the wake of a cold
front will bring dry...cooler and much drier air to the area.
Regional blend handles this well. So, stuck with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Saturday and lower to mid
80s Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s look
good as well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 282100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Air mass is quite unstable this afternoon, which suggests the threat
for widely scattered convection in the vicinity of the KIND terminal
will continue into the early evening hours.

Previous discussion follows.

Confidence is good in 3 to 3.5K feet diurnal ceilings through 00z.
With such a soupy airmass and a pair of weak upper waves, should
also see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. So, went with VCTS.
Then, good confidence in VFR conditions this evening and also in a
few hours of MVFR and IFR fog at the smaller airports 08z-12z as
airmass will remain unchanged. Should see more diurnal MVFR or VFR
cu after 16z Monday. Thunderstorm coverage expected to be too low to
put in the TAFs.

Winds will be 6 knots or less through the period, except higher in
thunderstorms.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-291000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
427 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

TIMING: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: THERE ARE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION: A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND WEAK UPPER WAVES NEARBY WILL
KEEP OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND USHERS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
516 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

INZ039-047-282215-
MARION IN-HAMILTON IN-
516 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING VERY LITTLE.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDIANAPOLIS...CARMEL...FISHERS...NOBLESVILLE...LAWRENCE...
BEECH GROVE...SPEEDWAY...SOUTHPORT...WESTFIELD...CUMBERLAND...
MERIDIAN HILLS...WARREN PARK...HOMECROFT...ROCKY RIPPLE...
WILLIAMS CREEK...WYNNEDALE...SPRING HILL...CROWS NEST...
NORTH CROWS NEST AND INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 8587 3993 8591 3993 8594 3987 8594
      3987 8595 3976 8595 3964 8598 3965 8633
      3993 8626 3993 8624 3999 8624 4007 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 315DEG 6KT 3972 8605

RYAN