Alert archive / Indiana / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN
NWS Indianapolis, IN issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2016, 6:53 PM EDT for Shelby County, Indiana. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2016, 6:53 PM EDT (22:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2016, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 37 min
- Issued by
- NWS Indianapolis, IN
County Shelby County, IN
The radar
The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -225 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1434 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 6:46 PM EDT, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 6:46 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 646 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Hot and humid conditions remain the focus and continue into Sunday under the influence of a broad heat dome in the central US that builds over our region into Sunday. Current trough offshore in Pacific Northwest will ride over the top of the upper ridge and into the Great Lakes Monday. This will sweep a cold front into our region to end the heat wave with more seasonal temperatures and humidity for Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered diurnal convection will be fairly limited until Sunday when front gets closer. Nocturnal storm clusters are possible but not certain and if they do form the question will be whether they last into daytime to impact heating potential. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Main concern is how far southeast the tail of convection currently forming as scattered cells in northwest Indiana make it into our forecast area. Likewise...whether or not new convection firing in the upper Mississippi Valley rides southeast on the Great Lakes squall line and moves into our forecast area after midnight. Current thought is that both current convective areas will have some impact in our northern counties at the least. Current Great Lakes convection continues firing new cells on southern flank but they are not intensifying much before weakening suggesting they may be running into drier air aloft or capping temps. Still expect at least isolated to scattered evening across our northern row or two of counties from Lafayette to Muncie. Models are not quite capturing Upper Mississippi convection but rather hint at some type of development from Quad Cities area across northern Illinois, carry it southeast with not much development and dissipate this over our counties Friday morning. Given the variation in this signal with the models and uncertainty as to how far south capping warmth aloft will allow storms to travel, will keep chance pops going but expand that chance southeast overnight. As for temperatures forecast and model consensus guidance numbers on track and have remained with those. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Main concern is how far southeast the tail of convection currently forming as scattered cells in northwest Indiana make it into our forecast area. Likewise...whether or not new convection firing in the upper Mississippi Valley rides southeast on the Great Lakes squall line and moves into our forecast area after midnight. Current thought is that both current convective areas will have some impact in our northern counties at the least. Current Great Lakes convection continues firing new cells on southern flank but they are not intensifying much before weakening suggesting they may be running into drier air aloft or capping temps. Still expect at least isolated to scattered evening across our northern row or two of counties from Lafayette to Muncie. Models are not quite capturing Upper Mississippi convection but rather hint at some type of development from Quad Cities area across northern Illinois, carry it southeast with not much development and dissipate this over our counties Friday morning. Given the variation in this signal with the models and uncertainty as to how far south capping warmth aloft will allow storms to travel, will keep chance pops going but expand that chance southeast overnight. As for temperatures forecast and model consensus guidance numbers on track and have remained with those. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Concerns remain with mid-summer heat and humidity and will continue Heat Advisory through Saturday. There may be a need to extend this into Sunday but aforementioned convection concern and impact on daytime heat preclude adding Advisory into Sunday at this time. Each new model run continues to back down on max temps. This is likely tied to the nocturnal convection they try to develop with diminishing convection in morning daylight hours...adding more cloud to daytime hours than what likely will occur. Thus will continue with max temps each day between 90 and 95 and with dewpoints at least in mid 70s or higher will pump heat indices easily into Advisory criteria and flirt with warning criteria. As to daily convection...again not a lot of confidence or certainty as to how much nocturnal convection occurs and whether it last into daytime hours. Odds favor this further north since warmer capping temperatures develop here. As with the last few days...weak shear but strong instability will likely pop isolated afternoon and early evening storms nearly anywhere in the forecast area. Again all models have been fairly similar with max and min temps and saw no reason to deviate from current forecasts. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Ongoing heat wave associated with broad upper ridge across much of the nation will continue into early next week, but temperatures will moderate some as longer term guidance depicts a slight weakening and westward retrogression of the broader ridge, which may allow upper level disturbances cresting the ridge to bring storms to the area at times both early in the week and again later in the week. Blended initialization handled this reasonably well and only minor changes were required. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 220000Z TAFS/... Issued at 645 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Western end of convective line has weakened quite a bit over the past hour or so as mid level capping appears to be holding. Appears convective threat this evening will remain off to the east of the terminals. Perhaps a better convective threat exists later tonight after about 220800Z or so as upper wave associated with convection over Wisconsin drifts southeast into the local area. Forcing should be a little better later tonight, with models suggesting 20-25 kts of flow in the 925-850mb layer. Otherwise, appears crossover temperatures may a little harder to reach tonight given higher cloud cover and potential for convection to help keep the air mass mixed up. As a result, will keep visibility restrictions above IFR for now. Surface winds generally at or below 7 kts tonight, although convective outflows could cause brief wind shifts this evening in the KLAF/KIND areas. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && SYNOPSIS...TUCEK NEAR TERM...TUCEK SHORT TERM...TUCEK LONG TERM...NIELD AVIATION...JAS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 4:09 PM EDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 409 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221000- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE- TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM- HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY- RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS- MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR 409 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LAFAYETTE TO TIPTON TO WINCHESTER LINE. HAZARDS: LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS. HEAT INDICES PEAKING FROM 98 TO 105. TIMING: A LINE OF STORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT RIDGE WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC STORM CLUSTERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK: BOTH VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DISCUSSION: EXTREMELY WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STAY WITH INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC THREATS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FRONT PASSES MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT ANY RAINFALL...WIND OR IMPACT REPORTS FROM STORMS THROUGH MONDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) RYAN
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 21, 5:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
547 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
INZ041-042-212245-
RANDOLPH IN-DELAWARE IN-
547 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH AND NORTHEASTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...
AT 545 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLDWATER OHIO TO
NEAR MATTHEWS. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINCHESTER...UNION CITY...ALBANY...EATON...PARKER CITY...FARMLAND...
LYNN...SELMA...RIDGEVILLE...SARATOGA AND MODOC.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THESE STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 4001 8514 4038 8544 4038 8522 4031 8522
4031 8480 4001 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 306DEG 32KT 4056 8478 4039 8543
RYANSpecial weather statement, Jul 21, 6:21 PM EDT, 32 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
INZ048-056-057-212300-
RUSH IN-SHELBY IN-HANCOCK IN-
621 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK...WESTERN
RUSH AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
AT 620 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GREENFIELD...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF SHELBYVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT
25 MPH.
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBYVILLE...GREENFIELD...RUSHVILLE...MORRISTOWN...CARTHAGE...
WALDRON...MANILLA AND ARLINGTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3943 8573 3979 8583 3983 8560 3979 8560
3979 8556 3954 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 341DEG 21KT 3971 8570
RYANSpecial weather statement, Jul 21, 6:53 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
INZ056-212330-
SHELBY IN-
653 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...
AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SHELBYVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBYVILLE...FLAT ROCK...GENEVA...FAIRLAND...
MARIETTA AND BOGGSTOWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3935 8568 3935 8575 3938 8595 3950 8595
3967 8590 3965 8565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 009DEG 15KT 3959 8581
RYANThe office that day
Everything else NWS Indianapolis, IN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 5:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | IND | Randolph | 58 min |
| Jul 21, 6:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | IND | Rush | 39 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Indiana, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.