Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1020 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

A cold front will move through central Indiana today bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Afterward high pressure will
build in and should provide a dry weekend. Another frontal system
will bring more rain chances next week. Temperatures will cool down
for the weekend, but return to above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 931 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Surface analysis late this morning shows a weak trough of low
pressure over Illinois pushing toward Indiana. Low pressure was
found across the Great lakes. Radar shows some sct TSRA over
southwest parts of Central Indiana. Dew points remain very
moist...in the lower 70s.

Models suggest the weak cool front/trough over Illinois will push
across Central Indiana this afternoon. Rapid refresh has trended
to developing more precip along and ahead of this system.
Meanwhile...TSRA are blossoming south of IND. Forecast soundings
show ample moisture and instability ahead of the front with
attainable convective temps in the middle 80s and over 2300 j/kg
of CAPE. Thus will trend pops slightly higher as some Hit and miss
TSRA development is expected this afternoon. With much more
sunshine expected at most locations today...Ongoing warm high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Focus is on any chances for rain through the period.

Kept some slight chance PoPs far east early this evening to account
for any lingering convection. Otherwise tonight should be dry with
the cold front exiting the area.

On Saturday, a second surge of drier air will work into the area as
a weak surface trough moves through. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower with this feature, but feel moisture is limited enough so
that coverage would be too low to mention. Will continue with a dry
forecast.

High pressure will then build in and keep the area dry Sunday and
Sunday night. An upper level system should remain far enough
southwest Sunday night to keep that period dry as well.

Stuck with a blend for temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT FRI Jul 8 2016

High pressure which will bring dry weather over the weekend will
move on to the east and thunderstorm chances will slowly increase
after the weekend as a warm front moves our way.  there are big
disagreement between models on how fast this happens.   The GFS seems
overly aggressive in spreading thunderstorms our way Monday night as it
moves an upper disturbance across north central Indiana then.  The GEMNH
and 00Z European models track this upper disturbance across Kentucky and
keeping northern and central sections dry until Tuesday.  Will go with
the 2nd scenario as the GFS seems to be an outlier.

Anyways better chances of thunderstorms will occur most areas from Tuesday
on as warm front moves across our region and a couple of upper weather
disturbances move our way.

It will become warmer and more humid by the middle of next week
with highs rising to the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the lower 70s.
Went near or slightly above super blend temperatures most periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 08/1500Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1012 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

UPDATE...
Adjusted timing of VCSH at KIND to Fri 16Z as scattered showers
increase in coverage to the south of TAF site.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Areas of stratus/fog with locally IFR occurring at some TAF sites
for the first hour...Otherwise VFR.

Areas of stratus/fog mainly at KLAF and KBMG will burn off in the
next hour or two.  Radar shows showers and thunderstorms over
southern portions of Illinois and Indiana and these will stay mainly
south of TAF sites. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop along a cold front this afternoon. Confidence is low
so only mention VCSH for now.

After cold front moves through...clouds will clear during the
evening. Winds will become west 7 to 10 knots by late morning...
up to 12 knots this afternoon and decrease to 6 knots or less
tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

INZ062-063-071-081515-
JACKSON IN-BROWN IN-MONROE IN-
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1032 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BLOOMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGTON...NASHVILLE...ELLETTSVILLE...STINESVILLE...
WOODVILLE HILLS...HARRODSBURG...INDIANA UNIVERSITY...GNAW BONE...
ELKINSVILLE...FAIRFAX STATE RECREATION AREA...SMITHVILLE...STORY...
YELLOWWOOD LAKE...UNIONVILLE...HELMSBURG...CHARLES DEAM WILDERNESS...
LAKE LEMON...WHITEHALL AND MONROE RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS!

&&

LAT...LON 3897 8628 3899 8628 3899 8639 3903 8668
      3921 8669 3931 8666 3930 8613 3896 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 279DEG 27KT 3915 8665

PUMA