Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Indianapolis, IN

164 
WWUS53 KIND 192025
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

INC055-083-153-192045-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-161019T2045Z/
KNOX IN-GREENE IN-SULLIVAN IN-
425 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX...WESTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

AT 424 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LINTON...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...WORTHINGTON...LYONS...CARLISLE...OAKTOWN...SANDBORN...SWITZ
CITY...NEWBERRY...VICKSBURG...PLEASANTVILLE AND FREELANDVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 8723 3917 8698 3890 8699 3890 8712
      3889 8711 3889 8713 3888 8712 3885 8745
      3894 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 258DEG 28KT 3892 8728 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

PUMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Low pressure and an associated cold front will remain near Indiana
into Thursday, then be pushed away by high pressure coming from the
west. The high pressure in turn should move off to the east Sunday,
being followed by a relatively weak cold front. A second high
pressure system from the west will control Hoosier weather Monday
into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

There is excellent model agreement. We can be very confident
precipitation will spread across area. The strong agreement also
supports the consensus temperature forecast.

Cross sections show very unstable equivalent potential vorticity
aligned with moderate frontogenesis and Q-vector convergence. With
these working in tandem, upward motion could be quite strong.
Showers and thunderstorms are the best forecast even though the
location of the surface front to the south suggests stratiform rain.

Given the likelihood of convection and very high precipitable

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday and Thursday night)...

Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Previous solutions varied, but the models are now in agreement
precipitation will mostly end by late tomorrow, with a slight chance
in the east in the evening. Clouds will probably persist most of
Thursday night in cold flow over the lakes.

With colder air moving in and most unstable CAPE rapidly being
lost, tomorrow's precipitation should be predominately stratiform.
Equivalent potential vorticity continues to show enough
instability aloft that a chance of thunder will be included. Given
precipitable water will stay very high into the afternoon, heavy
rain is going to be a threat from any storms.

The temperature guidance is close. There is no basis for changing
the consensus. Confidence is limited because forecasting how fast
cold air arrives behind a front, as in this case, is always
difficult. Potential errors are about 3 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Progressive...yet amplified flow pattern aloft persists through
the extended across much of the continental U S with generally
quiet weather expected for central Indiana through the middle of
next week. A cool start to the weekend as the Ohio Valley remains
within a cyclonic flow regime on the back side of the deepening
upper low over New England but heights aloft will modify into
early next week as broad ridging focused over the western part of
the country transitions east and centers over the Ohio Valley by
the end of the period.

Large area of high pressure will serve as the primary influence
throughout the period as it drifts into the southeast States. A
fast moving low pressure will track through the Great Lakes with a
trailing frontal boundary late Sunday but no rain is expected to
accompany the front with little moisture available. The main
impact the passage of the front will have will be to slow the
warmup for a day or two early next week before southerly low level
flow can resume over the Ohio Valley by midweek.

Saturday will be the coolest day of the extended with highs
primarily in the 50s. Temps should warm into the 60s thereafter
with further warming into the 70s possible by next Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system set to impact the region late in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 19/1800Z Issuance/...

Issued at 1211 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Latest regional radar and satellite imagery shows overcast
conditions with scattered thunderstorms now occurring over the
southern half of IL. Latest analysis shows stationary frontal
boundary from east central MO through southern IN between KBMG
and KIND. VFR conditions currently should become MVFR in the next
several hours at all TAF sites, with precipitation and occasional
IFR/LIFR after 22Z.

Expect precipitation to be around through much of Thursday ending
just before/around 21/00Z Thursday evening. Winds could be gusty
near thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
534 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-200945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
534 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

TIMING: MAINLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY STORM.

DISCUSSION: A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)