River Flood Warning 166, NWS Indianapolis, IN

066 
WGUS83 KIND 180141
FLSIND
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...The Flood Warning is no longer in effect for portions of the
following rivers in Indiana...

  Eel River...White River...


.The White River and Eel River will crest below flood stage in
Southern Indiana.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Be alert to flood debris on previously flooded roads. Keep children 
away from flooded areas. Recreational and agricultural interests 
should remain alert to changing river conditions.

For detailed flood information go to weather.gov/ind on the web and 
click on rivers and lakes.



INC055-105-119-180211-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0166.000000T0000Z-160920T2254Z/
/SPNI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The White River at Spencer.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 11.9 feet 
  tomorrow evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3936 8666 3933 8674 3913 8696 3911 8692
      3928 8675 3934 8665             

$$

ILC185-INC027-051-083-125-180211-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0170.000000T0000Z-160922T0000Z/
/PTRI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The White River at Petersburg.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 12.3 feet 
  Wednesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3856 8723 3853 8729 3855 8736 3854 8744
      3851 8744 3850 8729 3852 8722   

$$

ILC185-INC051-083-180211-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0171.000000T0000Z-160923T0400Z/
/HAZI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
841 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The White River at Hazleton.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast below flood stage with a maximum 
  value of 12.7 feet early Thursday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 8744 3852 8755 3843 8773 3841 8773
      3844 8760 3851 8744             

$$

INC021-055-180211-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0172.000000T0000Z-160919T0617Z/
/BOLI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Eel River at Bowling Green.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 14.5 feet 
  after midnight tomorrow.


&&

LAT...LON 3949 8698 3932 8723 3919 8716 3909 8696
      3914 8691 3926 8712 3947 8692   

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1054 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A cold front will move through the area today, bringing showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will briefly build in for Sunday into
Monday, but another front could bring some rain Monday night into
Tuesday. Another frontal system could bring more rain late in the
week. Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 926 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Surface Analysis late this morning shows a trough of low pressure
over Illinois and Lake Michigan. Water vapor shows a plume of
tropical moisture streaming across the lower Mississippi River
valley across Indiana to the eastern Great Lakes. Good subsidence
and drying was seen in the wake of the plume...across western
Illinois. Radar shows the best organized precip echos across
central Indiana...moving quickly east.

HRRR suggests the current band of precip will be the best threat
for the rest of the day. This area of precip should propagate east
of Indiana by early afternoon. HRRR suggests a few pop up type
showers and storms will be possible along and near the trough
passages this afternoon. Forecast sounding continue to keeps
decent moisture available through the afternoon with convective
temperatures in the middle 70s. Thus an isolated TSRA/shra
development cannot be ruled out...chances for precip are expected
to continue to diminish as the afternoon progresses and subsidence and
drying wets of Indiana continues to build to the east. With plenty
of clouds and ongoing rain expected today...trended high
temperatures cooler...closer to the 3 hourly mavmos.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Focus is on rain chances through the period. For most of the period,
models are close enough that a blend was used.

The cold front will still be passing through the area this evening,
so kept some low PoPs in during the evening, lingering into the
early overnight far south.

Surface high pressure will build in on Sunday, even as an upper
trough moves across aloft. With the high at the surface along with
limited moisture, kept a dry forecast Sunday.

Dry conditions will continue through the day Monday with the high in
control.

A cold front will move into the northern forecast area Monday night.
Moisture is limited and upper support weak. Thus only went some
slight chance PoPs north.

Generally stayed with a model blend for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A weak cold front may produce an isolated thundershower central and
south early Tuesday before it moves out of the area.  Otherwise...
high pressure will bring dry weather rest of tuesday through Thursday
as it moves east across the area.

Models diverge some late next week as the GFS indicates a cold
front may move as far south as northern Indiana by Friday...while
the EURO with a stronger upper ridge across our region keeps this
front farther north.  If the EURO is right it will be dry and quite
warm late next week.  But given that the previous forecast already
has a slight chance of storms north and central next Friday...will
continue this slight chance for now.

Highs will be in the lower 80s next Tuesday and middle 80s or warmer
late next week.  Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60 Tuesday
night and in the 60s rest of the long term.  Tweaked high
temperatures warmer late next week.  Otherwise...stayed close to
super blend temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 171500Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1054 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016

For the update, removed any thunder mention for the day. Relevant
parts of previous discussion follow...

MVFR flight conditions or lower at times this morning. Then mostly
VFR until late tonight with IFR fog possible towards Sunday morning.

Could see periods of MVFR or IFR ceilings through early afternoon as
cold front moves across the region.   Model soundings indicate
generally VFR ceilings of 4 thousand feet or higher from mid
afternoon on with clouds scattering out some areas tonight.

Could see areas of IFR Fog late tonight due to wet ground and
radiational cooling.

Winds will become southwest up to 10 knots by midday and light
tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-180845-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
438 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

TIMING: HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...BUT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOME AREAS INTO THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS COULD BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)