Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Monitoring storms across Central Illinois this evening and
watching another line of activity approach the western portions of
the state. Expect much of this line to mainly impact areas along
and west of I-55 this evening...with more scattered activity
possible elsewhere. No major updates expected at this point, but
will continue to monitor extent of thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are progressing N-NE into our
forecast area at 00z/7pm. It appears a band of showers and storms
may fill in as the line of forcing moves northeast toward N
Indiana. Have included a tempo for a few hours of thunderstorms at
the terminal sites this evening. IFR and low MVFR conditions will
continue through the evening, with some improvement to MVFR across
the board during the day tomorrow, as models show a dry slot
working ne into central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC
where ceilings could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. East
winds around 15 kts will remain east at 10-15kt overnight, then
begin to shift to the W-SW tomorrow from S to N.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Shimon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILZ027>031-037-038-281100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
333 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ036-040>044-047>053-281100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
333 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
MID EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

ILZ045-046-055-057-281100-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-VERMILION-
333 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-281100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-
MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
333 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
820 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TORNADO          2 N OLNEY               38.76N 88.09W
04/27/2016                   RICHLAND           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN SEEN BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER

&&

DJO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
826 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             3 SW EFFINGHAM          39.09N 88.59W
04/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

DJO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTROSE                39.17N 88.38W
04/27/2016                   EFFINGHAM          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AWNING OVER GAS PUMPS AT A GAS STATION BLOWN OVER AND HIT
            A CAR

&&

DJO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
927 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTROSE                39.17N 88.38W
04/27/2016                   EFFINGHAM          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AWNING OVER GAS PUMPS AT A GAS STATION BLOWN OVER AND HIT
            A CAR

0747 PM     TORNADO          2 N OLNEY               38.76N 88.09W
04/27/2016                   RICHLAND           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN SEEN BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER

0735 PM     HAIL             3 SW EFFINGHAM          39.09N 88.59W
04/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTAMONT                39.06N 88.75W
04/27/2016                   EFFINGHAM          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN OVER ROADWAY AND SEMI TRUCK BLOWN
            OVER ON I-70

0659 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S ALTAMONT            39.01N 88.75W
04/27/2016                   EFFINGHAM          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD AND WALL CLOUD VIEWED BY SPOTTER

0658 PM     TORNADO          2 SW ALTAMONT           39.04N 88.77W
04/27/2016                   EFFINGHAM          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
            OFFICER

&&

DJO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILZ036-040-280415-
SCHUYLER-FULTON-
1014 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER AND SOUTHWESTERN FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1011 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTH OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY WERE APPROACHING WESTERN
SCHUYLER COUNTY, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSHVILLE...LEWISTOWN...ASTORIA...VERMONT...IPAVA...LITTLETON...TABLE
GROVE...BERNADOTTE...HUNTSVILLE...CAMDEN...WEINBERG KING STATE PARK AND
RAY.

LAT...LON 4029 9091 4027 9045 4046 9045 4045 9008
      4012 9049 4010 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 213DEG 19KT 4020 9053

SHIMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILZ051>053-280445-
MACON-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
1040 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SANGAMON...WESTERN
MACON AND NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1039 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MOUNT AUBURN...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF TAYLORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...MOUNT ZION...FORSYTH...HARRISTOWN...WARRENSBURG...BLUE MOUND...
MACON...ILLIOPOLIS...NIANTIC...MOUNT AUBURN...ELWIN AND BOODY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 119 AND 141.

LAT...LON 3971 8933 3983 8936 3998 8898 3971 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 251DEG 16KT 3975 8930

SHIMON