Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Another storm system moving through the region today and tonight has
developed some convective activity early. The better organized
storms are just south of ILX this afternoon, but ample instability
was in place in west central Illinois.  Moving forward into the
overnight hours, the modeling of the evolution of the storms becomes
far more problematic. The current activity mixes the atmosphere to
an extent, and at least a couple runs of the HRRR actually responds
by breaking the subsequent line of convection that develops later
tonight with the front itself. Summary forecast would be that the
limited activity now will likely not eliminate the second round with
the forcing of the actual front tonight... but may limit the severe
potential.  Either way, continuation of the pops ahead of the
boundary through the overnight and damping the diurnal swing this
evening and through the overnight somewhat for the cloud cover.
NAM12 layer RH starting a brief clearing behind the front until the
stratus moves back in before morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Cool and wet period shaping up for the region over the next week.
Large gyre rotating slowly across eastern Canada will continue to
produce reinforcing shots of cool air as it moves into the Canadian
maritime by midweek. Although models are generally similar in the
overall pattern, the timing of individual waves and the orientation
of the trailing portion of the system is somewhat different.

On Thursday the first in the series of cold fronts will cross the
state. Depending on timing, there does appear to be a window in
eastern Illinois during the afternoon where thunderstorms will
develop along and just in front of the front. Some of the storms
along the Indiana border to the south of Danville may be capable of
strong winds and hail.

Cooler temps move in behind the front, with lows Thursday Night
dropping below normal as 850mb temps are progged to drop some 10C
between. A second cold front will push through Friday Afternoon and
Friday Night bring subfreezing 850mb temps in its wake. Moisture
should be quite limited given that Thursday's front will shunt the
bulk of deep moisture southeast of the forecast area. There may be
enough residual moisture for a few thunderstorms to develop along
the front.

The front is expected to push southward to near the Gulf Coast over
the weekend and then begin to return north as the upper low moves
away. Overrunning moisture over the cool air in place is expected to
begin to impact the area by Monday with periods of showers and
thunderstorms as waves in the southern stream flow interact with
the front as it slowly moves northward. Since central and southeast
Illinois will be on the cool side of the boundary, severe weather
threat should be limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Forecast problematic. Models split with how to deal with
convection through the early afternoon. Have put in more obvious
precip/TS for PIA SPI DEC and BMI in the short term...delaying
entirely for CMI in the east. VCTS dominating the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening due to potential mesoscale influences
and plenty of instability, regardless of lifting mechanisms.
through the morning, llvl moisture likely to bring IFR cigs back
in right behind the initial clearing behind the front tonight. NAM
layer RH hinting at a chance for a break out in PIA and SPI for
mid morning...have trended forecast that way. May be a little
optimistic.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
342 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-121100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
342 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-121100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
342 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
243 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
05/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
05/11/2016  E50.00 MPH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 39.89N 90.01W
05/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       CASS               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0128 PM     TSTM WND GST     PETERSBURG              40.01N 89.85W
05/11/2016  E60.00 MPH       MENARD             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            0.5 INCH HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0139 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E PETERSBURG          40.01N 89.70W
05/11/2016                   MENARD             IL   MESONET

            MULTIPLE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ONE APPLE TREE SNAPPED AT THE
            BASE. SWOP REPORT.

0139 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E PETERSBURG          40.01N 89.70W
05/11/2016  M79.00 MPH       MENARD             IL   MESONET

            PEA SIZE HAIL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES. SWOP REPORT. MEASURED
            WIND SPEED CORRECTED.

0200 PM     HAIL             1 S ELKHART             40.00N 89.48W
05/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS.

0215 PM     HAIL             2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
05/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
05/11/2016  E50.00 MPH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PULASKI           40.01N 89.28W
05/11/2016                   LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

DRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ067-071>073-112045-
LAWRENCE-CLAY-JASPER-RICHLAND-
315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER...RICHLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SCHNELL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF FLORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLNEY...CLAY CITY...NOBLE...CLAREMONT...CALHOUN...WEST LIBERTY...DUNDAS...
SCHNELL AND OLNEY NOBLE AIRPORT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3860 8836 3870 8846 3890 8810 3873 8789
      3860 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 235DEG 30KT 3866 8829

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW MONTICELLO         40.04N 88.59W
05/11/2016  M66 MPH          PIATT              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             4 W MONTICELLO          40.03N 88.65W
05/11/2016  E2.00 INCH       PIATT              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL UP TO EGG SIZE REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER THROUGH
            SHERIFF OFFICE.

0324 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTICELLO              40.03N 88.57W
05/11/2016  M62 MPH          PIATT              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0324 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              40.03N 88.57W
05/11/2016  E0.88 INCH       PIATT              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRO