Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Lincoln, IL

361 
WWUS53 KILX 211841
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
141 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

ILC123-175-211851-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-160921T1845Z/
STARK-MARSHALL-
141 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARK AND WESTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4118 8964 4115 8964 4115 8950 4097 8935
      4097 8973 4110 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 321DEG 28KT 4111 8966 

$$

GEELHART

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Convective issues causing a challenging forecast for today.
Outflow boundary, from the earlier line of storms which passed
through Chicago, is currently approaching Galesburg, Peoria and
Bloomington from the northeast. This caused the line to weaken
rather quickly as it began to outrun the line. However, convection
from Wisconsin has now settled into far northern Illinois in an
west-east configuration in the border counties. HRRR has been
struggling to handle the storms over the last several hours, and
has this secondary line weakening as well before reaching us.
Forecast was updated earlier to add some 20-30% PoP's across the
far northern CWA for a few hours this morning, which appears
sufficient for now. Will monitor the secondary line for a couple
hours to see if any additional PoP's need to be added for midday
or afternoon.

Temperatures will also be a challenge as well, between the
outflows and the cirrus shield from the decaying MCS to our north.
Already up to 80 degrees across the far southwest CWA, which is
in line with the previous forecast. Have made some adjustments to
the hourly trends across the north to reflect the outflows and
increased cirrus, but the remainder of the forecast area still
expected to get to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather will persist across
central and southeast Illinois today (and several more days
actually). These warm conditions will be supported by persistent
southerly low-level flow and the continued building locally of a
flat upper-level ridge. Based on yesterday's high temperatures and
minimal airmass change, boosted today's highs into the 90s areawide.
The airmass has become more humid over the past 24 hours and may
not heat quite as quickly today, suggesting going even warmer for
highs today would not be prudent.

Aside from the heat, only other concern of note this period is the
threat for showers/storms across the north. A storm complex is
currently chugging across the upper Midwest, and it has shown some
tendency to turn toward the right into the richer
moisture/instability. Some guidance suggests outflow from this
complex may fire off a few storms across our far northern counties
later today or this evening. At this point, think it will be a close
call, but favor keeping forecast dry with any activity staying just
north of the area. Convective trends will need to be monitored
closely today in any event.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Forecast remains unseasonably warm and dry for the rest of the week
in Central Illinois.  Temps in the mid to upper 80s through the
weekend.  With the persistent delaying of onset of precip with the
next system...think the guidance is actually going a little low on
the max temps this weekend and think the forecast will trend to near
90 in some locations for Fri/Sat.

Main issue with the forecast remains the trof that moves into the
west coast on late Thu/Fri.  The models have been modulating back
and forth btwn phasing the wave into the northerly synoptic stream
and producing a more cut off low over the SW, delaying the onset of
precip to the Midwest.  Latest GFS and ECMWF runs are more of a
hybrid, progressing a weakly phased wave across the Plains, and
almost stalling in the mid Miss River Valley for late in the
weekend/beginning of next week.  As a result, the pops start up Sun
night and continue through at least Tuesday at this point.  With the
models struggling with the pattern shift overall, pops are confined
to 20-30 percent for now.  After the system arrives Monday...temps
cool off considerably with the trof.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Main concern for this TAF set was at KPIA for this afternoon.
Line of thunderstorms over northern Illinois may edge as far south
as KPIA and have added some VCTS mention for this afternoon.
Outflow boundary dropping southward may potentially produce a
brief wind shift to the northeast as well toward 1830Z, but winds
would turn back southeast to south by mid afternoon. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected to prevail in central Illinois through
Thursday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

ILZ027>031-221100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-WOODFORD-
1123 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ036>038-040>055-061-221100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-FULTON-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
1123 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM I-55 WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1123 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY INDICATES THAT POOR AIR
QUALITY WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO THIS EVENING. PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISORDERS...AS WELL AS
CHILDREN AND OLDER ADULTS...SHOULD AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR
EXPOSURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

ILZ027>029-211900-
STARK-PEORIA-KNOX-
1234 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
GUSTNADOES...

AT 1230 PM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...A NARROW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH HENRY COUNTY... A
REPORTED GUSTNADO FLATTENED SOME CORN NEAR BISHOP HILL.

GUSTNADOES ARE CIRCULATIONS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG GUST
FRONT...PRODUCED BY A THUNDERSTORM OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE CIRCULATIONS ARE OFTEN MISTAKEN FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...
UNLIKE TORNADOES...GUSTNADOES ARE NOT CONNECTED TO THE BASE OF THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. GUSTNADOES...PARTICULARLY DURING DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS...MAY PICK UP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DUST AND DIRT...
MAKING THE CIRCULATION VISIBLE SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

GUSTNADOES NORMALLY DO NOT PRODUCE DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THEY ARE OFTEN
INDICATIVE OF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM GUST FRONT. OCCASIONALLY...THESE WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGE...PROMPTING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR HIGH WIND WARNING. SINCE
GUSTNADOES ARE NOT TORNADOES...A TORNADO WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED
FOR THESE RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 8965 4072 9044 4115 9044 4115 8987
      4123 8986 4124 8964

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
116 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               41.02N 90.35W
09/21/2016                   KNOX               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN...1 FOOT DIAMETER AND ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 60
            MPH WITH SHINGLES OFF ROOF. NO RAIN AT TIME...WAS WITH
            STORM OVERFLOW PASSAGE FROM STORM TO NORTH.

&&

GOETSCH