Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Lincoln, IL

548 
WWUS53 KILX 181251
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
751 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

ILC057-125-143-179-181315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160718T1315Z/
MASON-PEORIA-FULTON-TAZEWELL-
751 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR MASON...SOUTHERN PEORIA...CENTRAL FULTON AND WESTERN TAZEWELL
COUNTIES...

AT 750 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLASFORD TO NEAR KILBOURNE...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEORIA...PEKIN...CANTON...HAVANA...LEWISTOWN...MASON CITY...
EAST PEORIA...BARTONVILLE...CREVE COEUR...WEST PEORIA...
MARQUETTE HEIGHTS...FARMINGTON...BELLEVUE...MANITO...CUBA...
HANNA CITY...SOUTH PEKIN...GLASFORD...TRIVOLI AND GREEN VALLEY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 474 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 11.
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4016 9026 4015 9022 4016 9020 4018 9021
      4019 9028 4071 9018 4071 9000 4074 8998
      4072 8956 4016 8966 4013 8974 4014 8997
      4014 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 275DEG 39KT 4061 8980 4018 8992 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
325 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Warm and muggy airmass will remain in place and help to contribute
to a rather unstable weather pattern overall.  Unfortunately, the
forecast is problematic as models are handling both the exiting and
the developing convection differently.  This mornings convection,
mostly remaining to the north through the overnight, may clip the
eastern border of ILX CWA this morning as it begins to translate to
a more southerly direction. Next MCS/wave out to the west slowly
closing in on the mid Miss River Valley.  Differing models
alternately break up the showers and thunderstorms before they can
move into the region, others bringing in the showers to the extreme
west by 12-14z this morning.  Given the inaccuracies of the break up
of MCS's lately...the forecast will retain the widespread chance
pops not only this morning, but through the day and into the
overnight hours.  Shortwaves to the west are plentiful on sat
imagery and not reflected well in the model solutions.  Not going
with any one model solution, either, as there are simply too many
mesoscale influences. The strength of redevelopment this afternoon
will bank on how quickly the atmosphere can recover in the wake of
the western wave making its way through ILX.  Temperatures hot and
muggy...potentially only limited by debris/MCS activity limiting the
morning warm up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

A bit of a challenge early on in this part of the forecast, with
potential MCS activity and associated cloud debris potentially
hampering afternoon temperatures. Large upper high of 598 dm will be
centered over the Oklahoma/Arkansas area, which will initially help
steer any nocturnal convection southeast into central Illinois. As
the week progresses, the ridge axis will build northward, taking the
MCS track with it. Have not changed the PoP trends too much,
focusing on Tuesday and Wednesday during the day. With the clouds
and rain potential, did not stray too far from MOS guidance, with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 both Tuesday and Wednesday. This
would keep maximum heat index values closer to 100.

Thursday and Friday appear more clear-cut in the heat department, as
850 mb temperatures rise to near 23C and clouds will be less of a
factor. Have highs of 90-95 Thursday and mid 90s nearly everywhere
Friday, with miserable dew points in the mid-upper 70s. Both days
will eventually need at least a heat advisory as heat index values
get close to 110 both days. Will hold off on any headlines at the
moment due to the uncertainty with the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame,
as lesser clouds/rain could lead toward higher temps and thus the
ability to meet the advisory criteria earlier based on duration of
100+ heat indices. However, will address this in a Special Weather
Statement for the time being.

Looking into the weekend, the ridge will start to flatten, as a
piece of energy associated with a large upper low off the Pacific
Northwest coast breaks free. This will help push some cooler air in
from the north during the second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Strong but diminishing instability remains over the central IL
terminals tonight while a disturbance approaches from the west.
This should bring increasing thunderstorm activity to central IL
overnight. Have included TEMP TSRA first few hours of TAFs for
KPIA/KBMI, but only included VCTS from around 07-10Z for KSPI-
KDEC-KCMI as timing of thunderstorms affecting these terminals
less certain at this point. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing MVFR cigs, vsbys, and gusty/variable winds. Thunderstorm
chances decrease but do not entirely go away Monday morning
through Monday evening. Winds SSW 8-10 kts overnight then
shifting more westerly Monday morning through afternoon.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
648 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
PROVIDING INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 110.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-182100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...TOULON...PEORIA...LACON...
EUREKA...CANTON...PEKIN...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...RUSHVILLE...
HAVANA...LINCOLN...CLINTON...MONTICELLO...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...
DANVILLE...BEARDSTOWN...PETERSBURG...WINCHESTER...JACKSONVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...SULLIVAN...TUSCOLA...
CHARLESTON...MATTOON...PARIS...SHELBYVILLE...GREENUP...MARSHALL...
EFFINGHAM...NEWTON...ROBINSON...FLORA...OLNEY...LAWRENCEVILLE
307 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INTENSIFY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HOT WEATHER.
INITIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SPRINGFIELD AND EFFINGHAM.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID 90S IN MANY AREAS AND THE HEAT
INDEX APPROACHES 110 DEGREES. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS START TO SPREAD IN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

THE EFFECTS OF HEAT ARE CUMULATIVE...AND INCREASE THE LONGER THE
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER PERSISTS. AS THE HEAT INTENSIFIES...BE SURE
TO SPEND AS MUCH TIME AS POSSIBLE IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT. PEOPLE THAT HAVE TO WORK OR PLAY OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
PLENTY OF REST BREAKS...AND DRINK NON ALCOHOLIC LIQUIDS TO STAY
HYDRATED.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
511 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
07/18/2016  M1.14 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
            CONTINUES.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
07/18/2016  M1.95 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE HOUR TOTAL. STILL RAINING.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
07/18/2016  M2.12 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TOTAL FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W BISMARCK            40.27N 87.66W
07/18/2016  M2.47 INCH       VERMILION          IL   MESONET

            TOTAL FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS

&&

25