Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend.
In the very warm and humid airmass, a few afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible today mainly across the west. By Sunday into
Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a
little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A couple weak mid level shortwaves will round the periphery of an
upper level high centered over the Mid-Atlantic, lifting northeast
across Indiana and northwest Ohio today. These along with an axis
of surface convergence across the western FA will serve as the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development mainly this
afternoon. A pretty tight PWAT gradient is in place along the
IN/OH border this morning, but models are showing a surge in
moisture across our northwest this afternoon with PWATs there climbing
above 2 inches. With plenty of insolation this morning, moderate
instability is expected to develop across our west by this
afternoon. Given 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear, cannot rule out an
isolated stronger storm but it appears overall severe potential
will be limited by lack of significant forcing. Have bumped PoPs
up to chance across our west and also increased cloud cover
there, which translated into slightly cooler afternoon highs
northwest of I-71.

Other concern this afternoon will be the heat and humidity. Highs
will range from upper 80s in the northwest to mid 90s in the
southeast. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indicies
will likely flirt with advisory criteria in the south for a few
hours this afternoon. A few locations may briefly exceed 100, but
felt it will be limited enough to forego an advisory. Continued
mention of the heat threat in an SPS and the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Nearly stationary elongated mid level ridge remains centered to
our se with a shortwave moving thru the Great Lakes, tonight/Sunday.
Moderate instby develops during the afternoon with a weak boundary
dropping south into the Ohio Valley. Have low chance pops across
the entire region with the best likelihood for convection across
the north. Very warm readings expected again on Sunday with highs
from the upper 80s nw to the lower/middle 90s se. Mid and upper
90s heat indices expected again Sunday afternoon.

Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes Monday where
mid level westerlies will exist. Meanwhile, e-w elongated mid
level ridge will stretch from the Central Plains thru the Tn
Valley and Del Mar Va. Weak boundary across the south may lead to
isold convective development across the south Monday afternoon.
Have limited pops to slight chance. Highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s will result in heat indices in the mid/upr 90s across
the southern half of ILN/s FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over
the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the
potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the
late day in a continued humid airmass.

Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and
retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over
the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The
northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler
period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90
will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be
a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the
lower 60s by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A line of convection will continue to progress northeastward over
the next few hours and is expected to affect mainly the western
terminals. MVFR to IFR vsbys and ceilings will be possible with
the stronger storms along with a wind shift to the W/NW. There is
lower confidence on whether the storms will hold together to reach
the Columbus terminals later this afternoon, as models remain
split on this possibility. Regardless, expect the convection to
diminish by early evening as instability wanes.

With plenty of low level moisture in place, light winds, and
skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, br will be possible
overnight, especially at KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Weak high pressure over
the region will cause winds to become more northerly overnight
into Sunday. A weak boundary dropping down from the north will
allow for another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon,
but being so late in the period have not included this in the
TAFs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Kurz
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Kurz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

KYZ090>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-281900-
GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BE ALERT TO STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089-OHZ070>072-074-281900-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-HOCKING-
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-281900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
328 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     KFFO WRIGHT-PATT AFB    39.83N 84.05W
08/27/2016  M58 MPH          GREENE             OH   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE OXFORD            39.53N 84.68W
08/27/2016                   BUTLER             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
            THE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF OXFORD. TIME
            ESIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
333 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYTON                 39.86N 84.36W
08/27/2016                   MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
338 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CAMDEN             39.66N 84.68W
08/27/2016                   PREBLE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE
            SOUTHERN PART OF PREBLE COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST MILTON             39.96N 84.33W
08/27/2016                   MIAMI              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

OHZ044-052>054-272015-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-CLARK OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...EASTERN CLARK AND CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR URBANA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...BELLEFONTAINE...URBANA...LONDON...WEST JEFFERSON...
WEST LIBERTY...SOUTH CHARLESTON...MECHANICSBURG...NORTH LEWISBURG...
CHOCTAW LAKE...HARMONY...LISBON...BRIGHTON...LAFAYETTE...
SOUTH VIENNA...WOODSTOCK...CATAWBA...VALLEY HI...
ZANESFIELD AND MUTUAL.

THIS INCLUDES I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 80.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4022 8354 4016 8350 4011 8350 4011 8346
      3995 8334 3979 8364 4022 8396 4042 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 222DEG 26KT 4004 8376

KURZ