Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
405 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several upper disturbances interacting with a very warm and
moist airmass will keep the threat for thunderstorms in the
forecast through the week. A slow moving front will bring
additional forcing on the weekend, producing the likelihood for
more thunderstorms. Heavy rain will be the main concern in the
high moisture, low shear environment.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface analysis shows high pressure to the east and low pressure
to the west. The ILN FA lies in the very moist southerly flow
between the two systems carrying 2.25 inches precipitable water
across the area. Daytime heating has allowed instability to
increase, with CAPE values above 3000 J/KG in spots.

Radar shows thunderstorm formation in southwest counties where
instability is interacting with a mid level short wave. Expect
thunderstorms to continue to propogate northeast toward Columbus
through early tonight. A weakening trend is indicated later
tonight with loss of daytime heating.

A few stronger cells are developing in the moderately unstable
regime. While strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, the main
threat through this evening will be from localized flooding due to
slow moving and training cells in an environment of weak wind
flow. Warm cloud processes will also come into play with cells
exhibiting low tops but high freezing levels.

Low temperatures should stay above 70 in the very humid airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models suggest another day of warm and humid weather Wednesday
featuring weak wind flow. Evening without strong forcing, scattered
thunderstorms will develop again in the persistently moist
and unstable airmass. The main threat will continue to be heavy
rain due to slow cell movement and favorable warm cloud processes,
sustaining the potential for localized flooding.

Temperatures will rise to the upper 80s. Heat indices will reach
the mid and upper 90s in the humid regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal westerly flow aloft with increasing coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms will be found through Saturday. These storms will
decrease with the loss of daytime heating until a frontal passage
Saturday night keeps a bit more of a chance for storms on this
overnight period. The frontal passage is slow to cross the Ohio
Valley and could linger storms through early Sunday night in the
southern CWA. Latest run of the ECMWF held this frontal passage up
and developed a H5 trough in the central U.S. which drastically
increased the chances for storm development on Monday. It brings
a surface low into the CWA from the southwest later overnight with
fropa Tuesday.

Original forecast did not account for the large swing from
the latest ECMWF run but this just adds more uncertainty and a
higher probability for change to the latter part of the forecast.
Forecast confidence wanes strongly past Sunday.

Through Saturday expect temperatures to be seasonably warm but not
get out of hand as the very anomalous amount of moisture available
will inhibit max temps from reaching 90 in most locations.
Unfortunately this correlates to min temps not dropping past 70
for an uncomfortable beginning of the forecast. Storms that do
develop in this airmass will have a higher propensity for very
high rainfall rates and an increased chance for localized
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms starting to develop in the moderately
unstable airmass over southern Ohio and northern Ky. Weak mid
level shortwave to pivot northeast thru the Ohio valley thru the
aftn/early evening. Have included a tempo group for thunderstorms
at all TAF sites this afternoon to account for these storms.

If a storm gets over a TAF site vsbys may be briefly reduced to
IFR in heavy rain, but since this time will be brief have limited
the mention to mvfr restrictions.

Expect these storms to be progressive, based on s/w track and
diurnally favorable time for convection. Can not rule out a
a few storms continuing into the night but chance is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Surface moisture will be high
tonight,resulting in fog development and visibility restrictions
at all but KDAY. Additional thunderstorm development possible in
the moist unstable airmass Wednesday afternoon. Have a mention of
VCTS at 30 hour KCVG TAF site.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

KYZ097>099-OHZ078-079-092200-
BRACKEN KY-MASON KY-ROBERTSON KY-CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BRACKEN...MASON...ROBERTSON...
SOUTH CENTRAL CLERMONT AND SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FAIRVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 30 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAYSVILLE...WASHINGTON...RIPLEY...ABERDEEN...AUGUSTA...LEWISBURG...
BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...DOVER...HIGGINSPORT...GERMANTOWN...
SARDIS...CHILO...FLEMING-MASON AIRPORT...
US ROUTE 62 AT STATE ROUTE 875...ALHAMBRA...BURIKA...UTOPIA...
HITTVILLE AND AA HIGHWAY AT STATE ROUTE 19.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3843 8400 3844 8402 3844 8403 3846 8407
      3846 8410 3848 8413 3848 8415 3849 8416
      3880 8419 3878 8370 3850 8374 3846 8386
      3849 8393 3845 8398 3844 8398 3842 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 181DEG 31KT 3845 8404

CONIGLIO

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