Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will provide the focus for
thunderstorm development today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will persist Thursday and Friday when a wave of low
pressure is forecast to bring enhanced lift along the boundary.
High temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and Wednesday
will fall slightly to the lower to middle 80s by Friday under
clouds, precipitation and modest cold advection.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of convection continues to fire across central Indiana north
of a stalled sfc boundary. Earlier model runs were suggesting that
the front would be farther south and therefore the convection
would affect nrn KY more than srn IN and srn OH. It now looks like
the front will stay in srn OH, so upped pops across SE IN and srn
OH and raised pops in Dayton area into the middle Scioto Valley,
while lowering pops a little for nrn KY.

Kept previous highs in the 80s. Lower 80s area expected in the
Whitewater Valley with temperatures becoming warmer in the Scioto
Valley and nrn KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary will be gradually sagging southward through
Kentucky tonight through Wednesday. Thunderstorms may still
develop in the persistently moist and unstable airmass associated
with the front. Best chance for thunderstorms will be along and
south of the Ohio River, while northern locations may not see any
convective activity.

For Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop to
the west in response to a mid level short wave entering the
Mississippi River Valley. This will result in increasing
thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon, especially in
southeast counties where forcing will coincide with peak
instability. A few strong thunderstorms may occur in an
environment featuring moderate instability and mid level flow.

Temperatures rising to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday may slip a
few degrees Thursday under clouds, precip and modest cold
advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid
level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east.
allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday
into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather.

Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more
clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend.
Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TSRA have developed over CVG/LUK near a stalled frontal boundary.
Expect those 2 locations to be affected by the TSRA for the first
couple of hours of the period with MVFR/IFR vsbys. After that
TSRA will be scattered across srn OH and nrn KY, so transitioned to
a VCTS.

Up at KILN, a MVFR cigs on the nrn edge of the convection has
worked in. As the convection works ne, it could brush ILN. Only
went with VCTS for a few hours to cover the threat. DAY could get
nicked by a VFR shower, but expect CMH/LCK to remain dry.

Model trend is for the convection to weaken and dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating, so have the tafs dry overnight. With
lingering dewpoints in the 70s at the srn tafs, kept the mention
of some fog overnight.

Scattered convection should pop up again tomorrow, so have VCTS
in the CVG 30 hour taf.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...Sites

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1128 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-271530-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
1128 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-271530-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
1128 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ALSO, WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL
FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     FLOOD            5 N VERSAILLES          39.13N 85.27W
07/26/2016                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MINOR FLOODING OVER THE ROAD
            ALONG W. FAIRGROUNDS RD. EAST OF OSGOOD.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

OHZ078>080-261900-
HIGHLAND OH-CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN CLERMONT AND BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BETHEL...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GEORGETOWN...AMELIA...MOUNT ORAB...BETHEL...WILLIAMSBURG...
SARDINIA...FELICITY...RUSSELLVILLE...HAMERSVILLE...MOWRYSTOWN...
HIGGINSPORT...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE 62...LAKE WAYNOKA...
STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE 68...REDOAK...NEW HOPE IN CLARK COUNTY...
EAST FORK STATE PARK...FINCASTLE...LOCUST RIDGE AND SALTAIR.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3884 8420 3903 8421 3909 8376 3901 8369
      3880 8372 3875 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 268DEG 20KT 3895 8411

HAINES