Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast of the Ohio River
tonight. High pressure will build east across the region Saturday
and sunday. A southerly flow will on the back side of the high will
lead to an increase in moisture and the next chance for
thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Zonal flow with embedded shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes.
Associated weak surface front to drop south through the region
tonight. This front will encounter moderate instability across far
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Expect to see scattered
thunderstorm development along and south of the front across
southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky through the late afternoon.
A few of these storms may contain strong gusty winds. Storms should
come to an end by late evening with the front expected to slip
south of ILN/s fa and into the Tennessee valley overnight.

Expect skies to become mostly clear for a period this
evening/overnight after the front slips south with an increase in
clouds late.  Drier air to advect in allowing temperatures to drop
to lows from the upper 50s northwest to the middle 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly mid level flow veers toward the northwest with surface high
pressure building into the region Saturday. Dirty high pressure with
a good deal of low level moisture in the morning. These clouds will
lift with increasing sunshine during the afternoon. Highs will be a
little cooler than normal with highs ranging from the upper 70s
northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

The flow backs westerly with the surface high shifting to our east
Saturday night. Expect mainly clear skies Saturday night with the
surface high continuing to dominate our weather. Expect lows to
range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Sunday.
Southerly flow will allow for temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s.  A system will drop down into the area Monday into Monday
night.  Some thunderstorms may reach strong to severe limits with
damaging winds the primary threat.

After the Monday night time frame any precipitation signals have
been weak and subject to model run to run variability.  Due to this
have gone with a dry forecast from Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will continue to sag slowly south across the region
through this evening. We are starting to see some isolated shower
development along and ahead of the front and this will likely
continue to fill in through mid to late afternoon. Think the best
chance for thunderstorms will remain mainly to the southeast of
the TAF sites in the area of better instability. As a result,
will just keep a VCSH in at the southern TAF sites through the
afternoon hours.

We should then see some partial clearing heading into this evening
as we lose the diurnal heating. In developing low level CAA, think
some of the MVFR cigs currently up across the southern Great
Lakes may work down into our area later tonight. While some drier
surface dewpoints will also push down from the north overnight, it
may be delayed enough to allow for some mvfr BR development
across our southern areas.

VFR conditions will then prevail through the later part of the
TAF period as high pressure builds into the region.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
237 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
161100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
237 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-161100-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
237 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OHZ079-081-152230-
ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
550 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS AND EAST
CENTRAL BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WINCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST UNION...MANCHESTER...WINCHESTER...DECATUR...RUSSELLVILLE...
CHERRY FORK...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE 62...BENTONVILLE...
LAKE WAYNOKA AND DUNKINSVILLE.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3891 8386 3899 8368 3882 8340 3869 8359
      3869 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 298DEG 24KT 3893 8372

NOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
559 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KYZ094-095-152230-
OWEN KY-GRANT KY-
559 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OWEN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OWENTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENTON...CORINTH AND HARMONY.

THIS INCLUDES I-75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 145.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3835 8481 3835 8482 3836 8484 3836 8487
      3854 8485 3850 8453 3849 8456 3844 8462
      3837 8471 3835 8475 3834 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 271DEG 20KT 3843 8478

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