Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OFFERING DRIER AIR
THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMES ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LARGE MEAN TROF
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. S/W DIGGING SE INTO OHIO HAS INDUCED
SFC WAVE OVER NRN OHIO. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE TN VALLEY. UPPER VORT ASSOCIATED WITH
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER SRN OHIO TO PIVOT EAST WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW ENDING EARLY. SHEARED OUT LAGGING VORT AND HANG BACK SFC
TROF MAY LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER ILN/S
NRN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIFT BUT FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION.
THEREFORE...WILL LINGER CLOUDS INTO THE AFTN. COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE FREEZE
WARNING THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH VALUES FROM THE MID
30S N TO THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING EAST WITH
FLOW BACKING WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE A LTL
EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT LOWS
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN SEE A LTL RISE LATE. WILL GO WITH FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE UPPER 20S
SW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS BUT BEST MOISTURE IS TO OUR NORTH.
EXPECT TO SEE VIRGA WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
ILN/S FAR NW COUNTIES TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WAA PCPN PIVOTS NE AND CHANGES TO RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FAR NORTH THRU THE MORNING AND
INTO EARLY AFTN. IN WAA PATTERN EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AND WILL ALLOW CHC POPS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY AS FAVORABLE 8H CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 8H
60-65 KT LLJ. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM UP BUT WILL STILL
BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANG FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL S/W AND SFC LOW TO TRACK ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WILL INCREASE POPS TO LKLY OVER THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL THEN PUSH LKLY POPS SE THRU
ILN/S FA MONDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SE. INSTBY IS MARGINAL BUT WITH
GOOD FRONT MOVING THRU WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL
STAY UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY RAIN IS DONE IN THE REGION BY
6Z TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST REMAINS BEYOND THIS POINT IN TIME
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL
KEEP A COOL ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION AND PERMIT NIGHTTIME
LOWS TO DROP TOWARDS FREEZING IN A DRY AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE DRYNESS AND GRADUALLY OVERCOME THE EVENTUALLY
WEAKENING CAA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS NOT INDICATED BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND...WHEN A MORE SPRING-LIKE WARMUP MAY BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE
LESS THAN IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WORST
CONDITIONS ARE ENDING AT ISSUANCE TIME AS A BURST OF SNOW MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT CMH AND LCK. ALSO
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-051>055-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     SNOW             KETTERING               39.70N  84.15W
04/09/2016  M1.5 INCH        MONTGOMERY         OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1600963

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016

OHZ061>064-070>074-077>080-082-090630-
HAMILTON OH-GREENE OH-CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-ROSS OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
PIKE OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY OH-HIGHLAND OH-CLERMONT OH-HOCKING OH-
BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
134 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016

...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...GREENE... CLINTON...WARREN...ROSS...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...FAYETTE... SOUTHWESTERN
PICKAWAY...HIGHLAND...NORTHERN CLERMONT...SOUTHWESTERN
HOCKING...NORTH CENTRAL BROWN AND SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL
230 AM EDT...

AT 132 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST OHIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WERE
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A QUARTER MILE AND PRODUCING AN
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON AREA ROADS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 30 MPH...
QUICKLY CHANGING VISIBILITY...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KETTERING...MIDDLETOWN...BEAVERCREEK...FAIRFIELD...FAIRBORN...MASON...
XENIA...CHILLICOTHE...LEBANON...FOREST PARK...SPRINGBORO...WASHINGTON
COURT HOUSE...SHARONVILLE...WILMINGTON...MONROE...BLUE ASH...LOVELAND...
FRANKLIN...SPRINGDALE AND MONTGOMERY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 71.
 I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 32.

EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING AS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE
QUICKLY.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3937 8264 3937 8275 3896 8281 3927 8455
      3982 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 293DEG 24KT 3942 8370

AR

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