Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA ON FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FIRST AREA IS WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THINNING OF CLOUDS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING WHICH IN TURN IS
RESULTING IN SOME DESTABILIZATION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR...BUT
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION.

THE OTHER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THINKING THAT THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
MODIFYING THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...SO EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FORECAST LOWS CLOSER TO SLIGHT COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. BUT A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THUS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ABLE TO EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN CENTRAL OHIO CLOSER TO UPPER FORCING. WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY BEING REACHED OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA WIDE. WINDS MAY DROP OFF ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH TO ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME FROST FORMATION. BUT POTENTIAL FREEZE IS GREATER HAZARD.
SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO RISE AT FIRST WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE HOWEVER SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.  NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER WILL RISE
OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS
TO INCREASE.

HELD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE EAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL RAIN EXITING TAF SITES. VSBYS IMPROVING AND CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONVECTION AND FRONTAL CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. MVFR CEILING AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ034-042-060-061-070-071-
077>079-010815-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-MERCER-DARKE-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-BUTLER-WARREN-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
406 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME OF THE MORE WIND
PRONE AREAS SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MORE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA.

FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF THE GROWING SEASON...THE THREAT
TO TENDER VEGETATION WILL INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KYZ100-OHZ026-035-043>046-051>056-062>065-072>074-080>082-088-010815-
LEWIS-HARDIN-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
406 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING AS A
WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA.

FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF THE GROWING SEASON...THE THREAT
TO TENDER VEGETATION WILL INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

INZ075-080-KYZ089-090-094-095-312115-
OHIO IN-SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-GRANT KY-GALLATIN KY-
445 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OHIO...SWITZERLAND...
NORTHWESTERN OWEN...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND GALLATIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BROOKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLLTON...VEVAY...WARSAW...KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY...PLEASANT...GLENCOE...
FAIRVIEW...GHENT...SANDERS...SPARTA...PATRIOT...WORTHVILLE...PRESTONVILLE...
BEAR BRANCH...MARKLAND...BRAYTOWN...ABERDEEN...PATE...AVONBURG AND NORTH
LANDING.

THIS INCLUDES I-71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 39 AND 67.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3869 8520 3892 8520 3897 8493
      3894 8486 3892 8488 3890 8487 3890 8483
      3873 8472 3862 8475 3858 8508 3859 8507
      3858 8521 3863 8523 3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 255DEG 45KT 3876 8516

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
540 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OHZ071-072-077>080-312215-
HAMILTON OH-CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-HIGHLAND OH-CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
540 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...WEST CENTRAL HIGHLAND...NORTHERN
CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LOVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOVELAND...MONTGOMERY...MILFORD...BLANCHESTER...MORROW...THE VILLAGE OF
INDIAN HILL...WOODVILLE...MAINEVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...GOSHEN...
NEWTONSVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE...MIDLAND...BUTLERVILLE...PLEASANT PLAIN...ST.
MARTIN...SPRINGVALE...DALLASBURG...EDENTON AND STATE ROUTE 123 AT STATE
ROUTE 132.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3928 8432 3943 8395 3918 8379 3913 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 248DEG 38KT 3925 8428

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
542 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

KYZ093-OHZ077>080-312215-
CAMPBELL KY-HAMILTON OH-HIGHLAND OH-CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
542 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND...CENTRAL CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW
RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDRIA...FORESTVILLE...CLARYVILLE...AMELIA...MOUNT ORAB...BETHEL...NEW
RICHMOND...WILLIAMSBURG...BATAVIA...SILVER GROVE...SARDINIA...MELBOURNE...
WITHAMSVILLE...COLD SPRING...SHERWOOD...OWENSVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE...
CALIFORNIA...CLERMONT COUNTY AIRPORT AND WILLOWVILLE.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3886 8445 3907 8439 3922 8392 3901 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 252DEG 43KT 3901 8431