Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
945 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG
A POTENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AND
DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 11 PM. CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE A DECREASING HAIL
THREAT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY BUT WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG
AROUND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW.

PUSHED BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH...ELONGATED
1010MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AS IT DEEPENS TO AROUND 992MB AND
BECOMES MORE CONCENTRIC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
ACROSS THE ILN AREA IN THE PROCESS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY ASCENT. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING MODERATE CAPE OF ABOUT 1500 J/KG AND AMPLE
WIND FIELDS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO THREAT
EXISTS BUT IS LOW PARTLY DUE TO RATHER HIGH LCL. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN WESTERN COUNTIES THAT WILL SEE CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT AS
LIKELY IN EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH...WITH
LOCATIONS UNDER MORE PERSISTENT CELLS AND LINES RECEIVING PERHAPS
UP TO AN INCH. WITH FROPA OCCURRING BY 4 AM...CONVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENED AND MOVING EAST 6 AM...WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS TO TAKE OVER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING
MOISTURE AROUND 3000 FT...KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MONDAY.
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER BY TUESDAY...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 50 MONDAY BY COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS. LOOK FOR FROST MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MID 50S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MAXIMA COMMON AND
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY POSSIBLY
REACHING/ECLIPSING THE 70 DEG F MARK.

WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AT NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GFS IS
CERTAINLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE BOTH SUGGEST A
RAINY/WINDY THURSDAY...GFS MOVES THE RAIN OUT WHILE ECMWF KEEPS RAIN
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER A BLENDED/ENSEMBLE APPROACH AND THUS
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY EITHER AS GFS
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COOLER AIR IS POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. REINFORCING TROUGHS BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ADDITION TO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO THE TERMINALS. KEPT CONDITIONS
AT MVFR...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD MORE ROBUST CELLS
MOVE OVER THE RUNWAY COMPLEX FOR POTENTIAL IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE
THE FRONT GOES BY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE
POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1800 FEET THROUGH 15Z. WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET BUT REMAIN MVFR
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. STRATOCUMULUS WILL ERODE AND/OR SHIFT EAST WHILE WINDS
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HICKMAN

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