Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
751 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will traverse the region
through Thursday helping to keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. A cold front will then cross the
area Friday with surface high pressure building into the region
Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
This afternoon showers and thunderstorms over Indiana/ Illinois
will slowly spread into the area from the west as an upper level
disturbance acts as upper level lift. Forecast soundings from the
NAM and GFS both show some instability (greater elevated
instability on the NAM) while PWATs remain near 2.00". The first
wave looks to arrive later this afternoon into early evening. A
secondary shortwave will move into the area early Thursday morning
which is currently responsible for the ongoing MCS out in
Missouri. SPC currently has us in a slight risk until 8 am
Thursday morning. Currently DCAPE values are around 1000 which
would support wind gusts as the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Thursday the shortwave from the morning will be
exiting the area leaving weak subsidence in its wake. With this
being said timing individual disturbances in the flow remains
difficult. Thursday afternoon instability will linger across the
area with both the NAM and GFS indicating values above 1000 J/kg
so can't completely remove the chance of rain.

Friday a strong shortwave will dive southeast bringing a surface
cold front with it. Global models in general show the higher
instability Friday afternoon across the southeast. Have trended
PoPs this direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and dry
conditions will be in place for Saturday. Saturday is expected to
be the coolest day of the long term with northerly flow. Although
dry conditions will continue for Sunday, southerly flow will
return for Sunday with warmer temperatures.

With northwest flow pattern aloft multiple disturbances are expected
to work into the region next week.  The best chances for this
currently are expected to be Monday into Monday night and then again
on Tuesday.  High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are expected
to be in the 80s to around 90 and low temperatures in the 60s to
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple lines of thunderstorms affecting especially northern taf
sites through 05-07z with the potential for mvfr vsbys anbd
ceilings but cannot rule out dropping to ifr with the potential
for heavy rain in some thunderstorms, though the heavy cores will
be scattered.

have included vcts prevailing with thunderstorms finally clearing
the area behind the line of storms currently in central indiana as
associated with a more vigorous mid level disturbance. hrrr the
better of the convective allowing models as far as greater
coverage of thunderstorm activity through 04-07z. Left SHRA out
after the main push of storms as they should be fairly isolated in
nature. Next potential for MVFR will be with mid afternoon storms
Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with Thunderstorms
again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...JDR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-142030-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-
MIAMI-PREBLE-
419 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-044>046-052>056-061>065-070>074-
077>082-088-142030-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-
LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
419 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
712 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ026-035-043-044-132345-
LOGAN OH-AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-SHELBY OH-
712 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LOGAN...
NORTHEASTERN AUGLAIZE...HARDIN AND EASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

AT 711 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELIDA TO NEAR WAPAKONETA TO NEAR SIDNEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...WAPAKONETA...KENTON...ADA...FORT SHAWNEE...
CRIDERSVILLE...JACKSON CENTER...FOREST...RUSSELLS POINT...DE GRAFF...
LAKEVIEW...DUNKIRK...ALGER...WAYNESFIELD...BELLE CENTER...
NORTHWOOD...BLANCHARD...ROUNDHEAD AND QUINCY.

THIS INCLUDES I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 99...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 118.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4051 8354 4019 8418 4020 8418
      4050 8415 4068 8424 4068 8422 4066 8422
      4066 8411 4064 8411 4065 8388 4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 218DEG 61KT 4075 8419 4056 8410 4026 8414

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CELINA            40.51N 84.59W
07/13/2016                   MERCER             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COLDWATER
            CREEK ROAD AND ST. ANTHONY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

ABUTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ045-046-140015-
UNION OH-DELAWARE OH-
729 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL UNION AND NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELAWARE...MARYSVILLE...RICHWOOD...ASHLEY...RADNOR...OSTRANDER...
MAGNETIC SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...DELAWARE STATE PARK...
LEONARDSBURG...NEW DOVER...STATE ROUTE 257 AT US ROUTE 36...
BROADWAY AND PHARISBURG.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4044 8325 4043 8302 4042 8302 4042 8301
      4041 8292 4036 8293 4017 8337 4030 8349
      4047 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 233DEG 26KT 4025 8337

NOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
734 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ026-044-045-140000-
LOGAN OH-UNION OH-HARDIN OH-
734 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LOGAN
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL
OHIO AND HARDIN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 734 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RAWSON TO NEAR BELLEFONTAINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEFONTAINE...KENTON...ADA...FOREST...DUNKIRK...BELLE CENTER...
NORTHWOOD...BLANCHARD...MOUNT VICTORY...RUSHSYLVANIA...MCGUFFEY...
HUNTSVILLE...RIDGEWAY...PATTERSON...HEPBURN...PFEIFFER...
BIG SPRINGS...MENTZER...HUNTERSVILLE AND SILVER CREEK.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4070 8350 4070 8344 4069 8344
      4069 8342 4051 8342 4051 8337 4031 8383
      4082 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 241DEG 41KT 4094 8380 4038 8380

NOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
736 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ045-046-140015-
UNION OH-DELAWARE OH-
736 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND CENTRAL
DELAWARE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 735 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUBLIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUBLIN...DELAWARE...POWELL...SUNBURY...SHAWNEE HILLS...BELLEPOINT...
ALUM CREEK STATE PARK...KILBOURNE...LEONARDSBURG...STRATFORD...
OLIVE GREEN...LEWIS CENTER...
INTERSTATE 71 AT US ROUTE 36/STATE ROUTE 37 AND COLUMBUS ZOO.

THIS INCLUDES I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 138.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4036 8293 4036 8292 4035 8274 4028 8275
      4014 8314 4014 8317 4013 8317 4023 8324
      4040 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 241DEG 41KT 4018 8316

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             1 NNW EATON             39.76N 84.64W
07/13/2016  E1.00 INCH       PREBLE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT PREBLE COUNTY DISPATCH.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0719 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EATON                   39.75N 84.63W
07/13/2016                   PREBLE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF EATON. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

NWS