Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Wilmington, OH

205 
WWUS51 KILN 231030
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYC023-135-161-OHC001-015-145-231040-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-160623T1030Z/
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-SCIOTO OH-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
630 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEWIS...MASON...SOUTHEASTERN
BRACKEN...SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO...SOUTHERN ADAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN BROWN
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 3840 8341 3838 8345 3843 8358 3848 8359
      3851 8363 3852 8363 3846 8386 3856 8397
      3859 8397 3859 8399 3867 8407 3883 8362
      3871 8304 3868 8303 3863 8307 3860 8307
      3855 8310 3849 8319 3840 8324 3832 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 306DEG 48KT 3881 8371 3868 8399 

$$

BINAU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking across Ohio will keep thunderstorms in the
forecast today into tonight. Dry weather is expected for Friday
and Saturday with high pressure centered to the Northeast.
Thunderstorms may develop again on Sunday along a weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Complex low pressure remains centered to the west, with a front
extending into Ohio. In a very moist and unstable airmass
circulating around the low, severe thunderstorms containing
damaging winds and possibly tornadoes have developed in the
vicinity of the front as expected. Strong winds aloft have mixed
down with the thunderstorms to produce measured gusts around 60
mph. Flooding is also a problem with the atmosphere containing
around 2 inches of precipitable water. Radar and obs indicate up
to 4 inches of rain so far north of Columbus.

The low center is moving along the front to Ohio today, while the
front sags slowly southward. The main band of thunderstorms is now
following the front toward the southern part of the forecast area.
Expect coverage and intensity of thunderstorms to gradually
diminish as winds aloft and moisture decrease somewhat. However,
severe thunderstorms and flooding will still be possible in the
persistently unstable regime, mainly over southeast counties. High
temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thunderstorms may linger this evening mainly in the southeast,
until later tonight when the low and frontal boundary drop
into West Virginia. Went with a dry forecast for Friday and
Saturday, when high pressure will be building across the northeast
CONUS. Highs in the low and mid 80s are forecast for Friday, up to
the mid and upper 80s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models have now trended a little faster with front for Sunday and
Monday. GFS is fastest and wettest with ECMWF a little slower and
slightly drier. Will generally use a blend and bring in chc pops
for late Sunday in the west and across the fcst area Sunday night.
Will trim pops back for Monday and especially Monday night as
newer model runs pushing front south and east by Monday night.
Temps a bit above guidance for Saturday and Sunday and nearer to
guidance for rest of fcst period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A thunderstorm complex has developed across Central/Northern
Indiana in the unstable airmass at nose of 65 kt low level jet.
These storms will dive to the southeast across the TAF sites
early this morning between 07Z and 10Z.

Have a mention of wind gusts up to 45 kts with these storms but
environment has the potential to produce even stronger winds
up to 65 kts with favorable bow echoes.

Torrential rainfall will likely lead to a period of iFR cigs/vsbys
or perhaps even LIFR. After initial strong storms move through...
have lingered TSRA and VCTS a little longer.

Expect conditions to return to VFR after the convection ends
early this morning.

A cold front will drop south across the area during the day on
Thursday and will serve as the focus for some scattered
shower/thunderstorm development mainly in the afternoon. Have
opted to go with with VCTS through early evening.

Winds will shift to the WNW during the day with gusts up to 22knots
possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash flood watch remains in effect through this afternoon.
Extreme rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour are being observed.
With cells and lines training over the same locations as the
front moves gradually southward, flash flooding will be likely.
Redevelopment of storms this afternoon may bring another round of
threat, so have the watch continuing through today.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ099-100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ050-058-059-
     066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Binau/Coniglio
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...AR
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-KYZ099-100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-240915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
510 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING, AND SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>098-240915-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-
510 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW BROOKVILLE        39.43N 85.03W
06/23/2016  E60 MPH          FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S DOWNTOWN DAYTON     39.73N 84.20W
06/23/2016                   MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE 20 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JOHNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
507 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WILMINGTON          39.37N 83.83W
06/23/2016                   CLINTON            OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

ALANR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

INZ058-059-066-OHZ060-070-230945-
FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-PREBLE OH-BUTLER OH-
515 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND UNION COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN PREBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO AND WESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL 545 AM
EDT...

AT 515 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LIBERTY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...OXFORD...LIBERTY...SEVEN MILE...WEST COLLEGE CORNER...
SALEM...REILY...BLOOMING GROVE...MILLVILLE...SCIPIO...
COLLEGE CORNER...MOUNT CARMEL...MOUNDS STATE RECREATION AREA...
EVERTON...DUNLAPSVILLE...MCGONIGLE...COTTAGE GROVE...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...OKEANA AND LAYHIGH.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3968 8494 3947 8454 3930 8475 3931 8479
      3933 8484 3954 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 306DEG 48KT 3957 8498

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
522 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 AM     HAIL             WILDER                  39.04N 84.48W
06/23/2016  M0.75 INCH       CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
525 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 AM     HAIL             4 N COVINGTON           39.13N 84.50W
06/23/2016  E0.50 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBAKER