River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
800 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley as a
front move into the region from the north. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will remain in place through Saturday, when a cold
front moves through, bringing drier conditions on Sunday and into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mid level shortwave moving through the Great Lakes Will flatten out
the northern portion of the ridge. Surface cold front will drop
south into ILN/s northern counties overnight and stall out e-w
parallel to the westerlies. In moist southwesterly flow PW/s will
increase to 2.2 to 2.4 inches by Friday morning. Weak axis of 8H
convergence to drop south and weaken during this evening. This will
allow scattered showers and thunderstorms across the far northwest to
weaken as it moves south across ILN/s FA. In this very moist environment,
some of the storms may contain locally heavy rain. Given moderate
instability in place early this evening, a few of the stronger
storms could produce strong to severe winds. Lows will range
from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave to lift northeast in moist southwesterly flow Friday.
Numerical models generally consistent with this s/w inducing a
weak surface wave that tracks ne from the Mid MS Vly into the
Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. This will allow the stalled front
to lift north as a warm front. Best pops look to be focused over
the west-northwest Friday afternoon/Friday evening, where more
favorable instability and forcing coincides. Have mention of
likely pops over this location. Threat for local heavy rain will
continue with max PW axis in excess of 2 inches lifting north
across ILN/s FA Friday night.

Temperatures to remain a little above normal Friday, with highs from
the lower 80s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. Lows will be
muggy Friday night in the warm sector with readings around 70.

Progressive mid level shortwave to move through the Great Lakes
Saturday. Deepening surface low to track from the Upper MS VLY
through the Great Lakes. Trailing the sfc low, a cold front will
sweep east through ILN/s FA Saturday afternoon. Expect storms to
develop in the axis of moderate instability that develops along
and ahead of this front. Given wind flow, the potential exists for
storms to organize into line segments with damaging winds being
a threat. Have increased pops to likely with this fropa.
Temperatures will show a good gradient with highs from near 80
northwest to the upper 80s southeast.

In the wake of this front, surface high pressure builds in from
the west Saturday night. Precipitation to come to an end Saturday
evening with diminishing cloud overnight. Cooler and drier air
advects in with lows in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Period begins with the region in a post frontal regime as high
pressure builds east up the Ohio River Valley. Dry conditions will
prevail through Tuesday, as the high will control the region's
weather. Highs will be 70s on Sunday, then gradually warm to the 80s
by Tuesday.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cdfnt will drop into the area
as a H5 s/w swings across the Great Lakes.  There will be a chance
of thunderstorms as the front pushes through. Highs Wednesday will
be cooler, in the 70s, due to the rain chances.

Another high pressure system will build in Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Additional convection extending from the area southwest to near
KPAH, where an upper level disturbance will ride along the
weakening boundary which will slowly settle southward across the
mid ohio valley. Kept VCSH in the area with some uncertainty with
how much of the current convection over southern Indiana will hold
together as it rides along the boundary. Kept IFR ceilings in the
forecast to develop mainly at kday/klck/kcmh north of the boundary
and spread southward to kiln/kcvg/kluk as the boundary settles
southward in the 12-18z timeframe.

By 18z Friday...the stalled frontal boundary will begin to lift
north as a warm front. IFR ceilings as a mid level trough
digs/MVFR visibilities will improve with daytime heating...though
scattered storms will develop in the afternoon with most of the
taf locations will be in the warm sector between the northward
progressing warmfront and ahead of the strong cold front to push
through the area on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...JDR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-092030-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
417 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STORMS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1152 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUNMAN                  39.23N 85.10W
09/08/2016  M3.06 INCH       RIPLEY             IN   PUBLIC

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S BATESVILLE          39.28N 85.22W
09/08/2016  M4.70 INCH       RIPLEY             IN   PUBLIC

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW EVERTON           39.56N 85.12W
09/08/2016  M3.15 INCH       FAYETTE            IN   PUBLIC

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S SUNMAN              39.18N 85.09W
09/08/2016  M2.54 INCH       DEARBORN           IN   PUBLIC

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW BRIGHT            39.23N 84.89W
09/08/2016  M3.76 INCH       DEARBORN           IN   PUBLIC

1144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE BRIGHT            39.29N 84.83W
09/08/2016  M2.52 INCH       DEARBORN           IN   PUBLIC

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1153 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW HAMILTON           39.44N 84.61W
09/08/2016  M4.10 INCH       BUTLER             OH   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1156 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E LEBANON             39.43N 84.15W
09/08/2016  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             OH   COCORAHS

            OCCURRED BETWEEN 1015PM AND 11PM

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1211 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE LAWRENCEVILLE      39.29N 85.03W
09/09/2016                   DEARBORN           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ON SEVERAL ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
            OF THE COUNTY. TWO MOTORISTS HAD TO BE RESCUED FROM CARS
            IN FLOOD WATERS ON TRACKVILLE ROAD AND LAWRENCEVILLE ROAD
            NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BATESVILLE              39.30N 85.22W
09/09/2016                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED EVACUATIONS NECESSARY AT
            THE GOLDEN VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY IN BATESVILLE DUE

            TO WATER ENTERING BUILDINGS. SHELTERS ARE BEING ARRANGED.

&&

JDR