Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. Unsettled weather
will be present for several days as upper level disturbances move
through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low to pass thru the Great Lakes and open up in the westerly
flow. This will allow a weak surface cold front over to push
southeast across ILN/s fa this afternoon. Fog has improved and
expect marginal instability to develop with blyr cape values
around 1000 j/kg. Expect scattered convection to develop in this
unstbl airmass ahead of the front, with the best coverage across
our se counties. Little change from previous fcst. Have dropped
fog mention and tried to time convection this afternoon.
Temperatures look good with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

Previous discussion...
Visibilities have been reduced generally across locations that
received previous rainfall. Have patchy dense fog mention for
portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Also went ahead and
issued a special weather statement for fog as well.

Frontal boundary will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity today. A few storms maybe strong to severe across eastern
portions of the region. Damaging winds would be the primarily
threat.

Temperatures are expected to be cooler today than the past few
days with additional cloud cover in place. Went with high
temperatures in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Several disturbances move through during the short term keeping
precipitation chances in the forecast. Precipitation and cloud
cover will keep temperatures cooler across the area on Friday and
Saturday. Went with a model blend for precipitation chances over
the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday the upper level trough axis will still be just west of the
area allowing for the chance of rain to continue. PWATS are also
forecasted to be above 1.00" during the day. A weak front will
also push through the area Sunday as the upper level cyclone
begins to mature. Finally on Monday the trough axis will swing by
with PWATS slowly starting to fall. Timing of how the upper level
low will evolve is still in question, but both the GFS and ECMWF
show the low remaining in close enough proximity to the area for
some possible wrap around precipitation.

Tuesday into Wednesday confidence is below normal as both the Euro
and GFS try to break down the ridging across the Mountain West.
The GFS tries to push the ridge further south than the Euro. This
then influences how quickly surface high pressure moves into the
area on the back side of the upper level low from Sunday. For now
have trended the grids slower in breaking down the upper level
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slow moving front to push south into southern Ohio this afternoon
and wash out to our south overnight. This front interacting with
low end moderate instby has led to scattered thunderstorm
development. Have mention of thunderstorms for several hours this
aftn and linger a VCSH into the early evening across the srn TAF
sites. Due to high low level moisture and light winds expect
mist/fog to develop overnight. Fog should improve early Friday
giving way to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail
through the day on Friday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-031815-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
203 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-031815-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
203 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SOME
OF THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR STORM DAMAGE.