Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Wilmington, OH

208 
WGUS71 KILN 171501
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1101 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

KYC015-117-171509-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-
1101 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN KENTON AND NORTHERN BOONE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT. WHILE PONDING OF WATER MAY LINGER ON AREA ROADWAYS...RAPID
RISES AND FLOWING WATER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. 

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3921 8454 3918 8430 3904 8432 3904 8449
      3910 8451 3910 8455 3907 8462 3914 8473
      3919 8478

$$

KYC037-OHC061-171545-
/O.CON.KILN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMPBELL KY-HAMILTON OH-
1101 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL AND CENTRAL HAMILTON
COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1059 AM EDT...RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. UP TO 2 TO 2.5
INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CINCINNATI...COVINGTON...NORWOOD...FORT THOMAS...NEWPORT...MADEIRA...
CHEVIOT...VILLA HILLS...HIGHLAND HEIGHTS...BELLEVUE...SOUTHGATE...
FORESTVILLE...FINNEYTOWN...MARIEMONT...CLEVES AND TERRACE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 8454 3918 8430 3904 8432 3904 8449
      3910 8451 3910 8455 3907 8462 3914 8473
      3919 8478

$$

JDR

004 
WGUS71 KILN 171537
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1137 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

KYC037-171547-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMPBELL KY-
1137 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3905 8442 3908 8444 3911 8444 3912 8446
      3920 8444 3918 8430 3904 8432

$$

OHC061-171545-
/O.CON.KILN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON OH-
1137 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1137 AM EDT...RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CINCINNATI...NORWOOD...FORT THOMAS...MADEIRA...DAYTON...
FORESTVILLE...MARIEMONT...TERRACE PARK...
RIVERBEND AND CONEY ISLAND...SHERWOOD...LUNKEN AIRPORT...
TURPIN HILLS...DRY RUN AND FRUIT HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 8442 3908 8444 3911 8444 3912 8446
      3920 8444 3918 8430 3904 8432

$$

JDR

180 
WGUS51 KILN 171539
FFWILN
OHC061-171645-
/O.EXT.KILN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160817T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1139 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT.

* AT 1137 AM EDT...FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WATER WAS BEING
  REPORTEDBY LAW ENFORCEMENT...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER ALONG
  WOOSTER PIKE NEAR MARIMONT AS WELL AS HIGH WATER IN ANDERSON
  TOWNSHIP. THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
  HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING TO OCCUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  NORWOOD...FORT THOMAS...MADEIRA...MARIEMONT...TERRACE PARK...
  RIVERBEND AND CONEY ISLAND...THE VILLAGE OF INDIAN HILL...
  SILVERTON...SHERWOOD AND DRY RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 8442 3908 8444 3911 8444 3912 8446
      3920 8444 3918 8430 3904 8432

$$

JDR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of convergent flow in a moist airmass will keep an
increased chance of showers along a now nebulous front oriented along
the I-71 corridor this morning. This area will move southeast
today and a relative lull in activity is expected through early
Saturday. More widespread storms will again occur later Saturday ahead
of a cold front that will cross the region Sunday, finally
providing an actual dry and more comfortable stretch of weather
to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convergent area bisects CWA and Ohio from sw-ne and will see
continued shower development early this morning. Discrete cells
will likely be the main carrier of any thunder chances through at
least daybreak, then insolation will provide a better chance for
deeper convection today. Have just included a chance of thunder
where pops were likely or higher through 15z, then ran with a
straight thunder forecast for the rest of today.

A number of the models are showing a similar sw-ne oriented streak
of 1" or better rainfall southeast of where the showers are laying
out now, where categorical pops have been put in the forecast for
today. Do not think that the threat for flooding is overly high in
this area as the area se of I-71 has not received the recurring
rainfall over the past few days as the are to the northwest. Still
in a moist airmass with PWAT values over 2" so the threat for
localized flooding with storms producing very high rainfall rates
is not negligible.

Highs will be muted today - generally in the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Drier conditions will filter in tonight as upper level flow shifts
the systems eastward yet does not have enough to scour the airmass
out.

Slightly drier airmass will be found over the region starting
Wednesday night and continuing through the Friday night. PWAT
values will still be 1.5" or so and with any daytime heating,
storms cannot be ruled out entirely for any late day period, with
a possible exception of Thursday where storms should remain out of
the CWA due to a lack of any real forcing mechanism. Friday storm
coverage will still be isolated to scattered in nature in a
continued nebulous pattern.

Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 60s and highs will
reach the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Thursday morning, the upper-level weather pattern across the
CONUS will be flattening out, and the greatest of the deep moisture
over the southeastern states will be shunted a little further to the
south, and not directly over the Ohio Valley. However, surface
ridging will remain in place, keeping a generally warm and moist
pattern from completely exiting the region. This will lead to a
lower overall chance of precipitation, but very little change in
daily temperatures and dewpoints going into the weekend. Weak
convective precipitation appears possible on Thursday, mainly in the
northern sections of the CWA. Increasing moisture from the south
late in the day on Friday will result in chances of precipitation
again, though mainly in the southern half of the forecast area late
in the day.

A wetter pattern will again set up over the weekend, as a large
upper trough deepens over the central states. There is solid model
agreement in an increased chance of showers and storms on both
Saturday and Sunday, but there remain some timing differences
regarding the eventual passage of a cold front (along with a surface
low moving through the Great Lakes). While the 12Z GFS is still
notably quicker than the 12Z ECMWF, both models have shifted a
little toward a common mean, suggesting that the greatest potential
for precipitation may be early on Sunday.

Surface high pressure is expected to move in behind the cold front,
with drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Moisture continues to lift up the stalled frontal boundary over
the region. Pcpn overnight has been light and generally spotting.
Models lift the convection down by SDF ne this morning, generally
running it along I-71. Pcpn should affect the majority of the tafs
through the morning hours. Since there is lighting in the
convection attm, carried VCTS for KCVG/KLUK and KILN.

CIGS have been all over the place, bouncing from vfr to ifr and
back. Time sections are still trying to show very low cigs this
morning. For locations that are vfr, brought cigs down to mvfr in
the pcpn this morning, but confidence is low on exactly where
they will set up.

There could be some lingering showers this afternoon before the
pcpn gets shunted eastward along with H5 vorticity maxima. The cigs
will gradually rise in the afternoon, with the tafs reaching vfr
conditions between 21-00Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Sites

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
505 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-180915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
505 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.