Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO TENNESSEE... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAY FURTHER DIMINISH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
TRAVELED NORTH WITH THE FRONT TO BE NEAR I-70. THOUGH CELLS HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AFTER
SUNSET...STRENGTH HAS PERSISTED DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FLOW
OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING
IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH CONVECTION IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY RELATIVE TO THE LOCATION OF THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 50
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO TENNESSEE MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE...PROVIDING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST UP TO
THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF LAGS SFC LOW WHICH IS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER ILN/S SE COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH PCPN ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH
THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM
FRONT...THEN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE LOW AND FRONT
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH TO WEST NORTHWEST
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS (POSSIBLY IFR) WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

ON MONDAY...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE. DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-020915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
843 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 ESE XENIA            39.61N 83.72W
05/01/2016  M56 MPH          GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            CWOP WEATHER STATION RECORDED WIND GUST

&&

JGIBSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
852 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OHZ060-061-020115-
MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
852 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND EAST
CENTRAL PREBLE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 852 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEST ALEXANDRIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTON...TROTWOOD...VANDALIA...ENGLEWOOD...EATON...LEWISBURG...WEST
ALEXANDRIA...GRATIS...CLAYTON...UNION...BROOKVILLE...NEW LEBANON...
FARMERSVILLE...SHILOH...PHILLIPSBURG...DAYTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
NORTHVIEW...PYRMONT AND WHEATVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 32.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3963 8450 3972 8467 3989 8449 3992 8443
      3992 8422 3985 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 219DEG 28KT 3972 8445

HICKMAN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OHZ054-055-064-020215-
PICKAWAY OH-FRANKLIN OH-MADISON OH-
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKAWAY...FRANKLIN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 929 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JEFFERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...DUBLIN...REYNOLDSBURG...GROVE CITY...UPPER ARLINGTON...GAHANNA...
HILLIARD...WORTHINGTON...BEXLEY...LONDON...JEFFERSON...WEST JEFFERSON...
LAKE DARBY...OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY...WHITEHALL...GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS...
OBETZ...URBANCREST...VALLEYVIEW AND MARBLE CLIFF.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 109.
 I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 116.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3974 8325 3990 8346 4011 8319 4011 8317
      4012 8317 4014 8314 4014 8311 3997 8278
      3996 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 235DEG 31KT 3988 8330

AR