Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the
area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms. A weak
cold front will drop across the Carolinas Wednesday, stalling
offshore and across South Carolina into late week. An increase
in heat and humidity will bring higher apparent temperatures into
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A breakdown in the upper ridge and extensive
cloud cover has finally given us somewhat of a relief as far as the
heat index goes. Dewpoints are also not quite as high, so for this
afternoon we are looking at temperatures of right around 90 with
heat index values of around 100. Convection has begun to initiate in
earnest and based on latest guidance and sounding analysis expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with coverage
gradually increasing into the early evening hours before tapering
off with the sunset. Although we expected sea-breeze related
convection to form initially, it has instead first formed well
inland in the vicinity of the thermal trough. An upper disturbance
later today will help drive inland convection towards the coast. SPC
now has our area in the marginal risk category for severe weather,
and based on latest trends and guidance this looks like a good call.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front will drop over the eastern
Carolinas during the short term, stalling in the Cape Fear region
early on Wednesday. Ample moisture will combine with foci in the
form of the frontal boundry, outflow boundries and a weak sea breeze
circulation to bring at least scattered convection each day,
primarily in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures
will be quite seasonal on both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Looking increasingly like some beautiful mid-
summer weather for the extended as a cold front dissipates to the
south and high pressure builds in from the north. Behind this front,
temperatures will fall to seasonable values, or even slightly below,
Thu/Fri with only isolated aftn tstm chances both days. By Saturday,
ridge begins to build once again across the southeast so that temps
climb back to several degrees above climo for the upcoming wknd, but
subsidence and continued dry air on westerly mid-level flow will cap
tstm chances to remain at only isolated. Humidity will ramp back up
during the wknd as well, but attm no heat advisory criteria is
expected. Early next week, another cold front will drop slowly
southward towards the area, but may become aligned parallel to the
mid-level flow, and stall just north of the area. Will show slightly
cooler temps and better POP for Monday, but continue an otherwise
very nice forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Thunderstorms starting to fire inland while the sea
breeze activity is running a little behind. Certainly expect
inland terminals to get thunder this afternoon and probably the
coastal sites a bit later. Some guidance showing activity
returning again overnight so I addressed with VCSH for inland
areas. Also added a little MVFR BR for these sites. Coastal sites
should remain VFR outside of the transitory TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic
will keep winds primarily from the SW at around 15 kts with gusts
to 20 kts, with seas of around 3 ft this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front will drop over the Cape Fear region
during the short term, stalling over the waters early on
Wednesday. Winds will be primarily from the SW at 10 to 15 kts on
Tuesday, with seas of around 3 ft. Winds will be a bit more
variable on Wednesday as the front wavers in the region, but seas
should continue to run in the 3 ft range. Expect gusts up around
20 kts each day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front dissipating to the south on
Thursday will leave light NE winds across the waters. As this front
erodes, high pressure offshore will slowly re-assert itself across
the waters Friday, and especially on Saturday. This causes winds to
shift back to the SW Friday but with light speeds,  before
increasing to 10-15 kts on Saturday, still from the SW. Seas will be
around 2 ft Thu and Fri, before climbing to 2-3 ft Saturday as a SW
wind wave amplifies atop the residual 2ft/8sec SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

SCZ017-011815-
MARLBORO SC-
134 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN MARLBORO COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

AT 134 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BENNETTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENNETTSVILLE...MCCOLL...CLIO...CHAVISTOWN...DUNBAR...
GIBSON AND TATUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 7945 3452 7951 3455 7982 3457 7982
      3459 7981 3461 7981 3461 7978 3464 7980
      3471 7977 3478 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 252DEG 15KT 3468 7969

JDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
404 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ096-012030-
BLADEN NC-
404 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN BLADEN COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AMMON...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMMON...JEROME AND DUART.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7849 3483 7847 3481 7846 3481 7845
      3479 7844 3476 7841 3476 7881 3485 7885
      3485 7851 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 251DEG 17KT 3486 7863

JDW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
542 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ105>109-012230-
INLAND BRUNSWICK NC-COASTAL NEW HANOVER NC-COASTAL PENDER NC-
INLAND PENDER NC-INLAND NEW HANOVER NC-
542 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PENDER...NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK AND
NEW HANOVER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TOPSAIL...OR 9 MILES WEST OF SURF CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...BURGAW...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...SURF CITY...
FIGURE EIGHT ISLAND...RICH INLET...HAMPSTEAD...TOPSAIL BEACH...
TOPSAIL...WRIGHTSBORO...BAYSHORE...MONTAGUE...OGDEN...MURRAY TOWN...
WHITE STOCKING...WINDEMERE...SCOTTS HILL...ROCKY POINT...
CAPE FEAR COMMUNITY COLLEGE NORTH CAMPUS AND WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 396 AND 416.
 INTERSTATE 140

PEOPLE ATTENDING NEW HANOVER COUNTY HAZMAT EXERCISE WITH CSX SHOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 7764 3435 7765 3435 7766 3425 7776
      3425 7778 3424 7777 3419 7781 3420 7782
      3422 7781 3421 7783 3420 7783 3435 7814
      3472 7783 3472 7768 3448 7758 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 278DEG 31KT 3445 7773

JDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ099-012315-
COLUMBUS NC-
632 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
REDBUG...OR NEAR WHITEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE WACCAMAW...REDBUG...HALLSBORO...CRUSOE ISLAND...BRUNSWICK AND
BOLTON.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 397 AND 410.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 7845 3437 7839 3417 7839 3414 7842
      3416 7847 3416 7848 3417 7850 3417 7851
      3416 7852 3422 7871 3431 7871 3439 7847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 270DEG 13KT 3426 7865

JDW