Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
726 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Potential for thunderstorms will exist in a hot and humid
summertime air mass ahead of cold front. This cold front will
drop across the area late Wednesday, bringing drier weather to
follow. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the
weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
increasing early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Tuesday...One big cluster of strong convection
covers much of Brunswick County and will be keeping a close eye on
the evolution of this system. Otherwise we are seeing a rather
marked decrease in the action with the setting sun. Have updated
forecast accordingly to give us slight chance pops until midnight
for most places, with a more gradual decrease in pops for
Brunswick County. Relevant portion of previous discussion from
earlier this afternoon follows:

The latest models continue to show main focus of convection along
sea breeze and related to a couple of shortwaves moving through
from the NW. The upper trough axis will remain just off the east
coast but the few shortwaves riding down in the northwest flow
will help to trigger storms through tonight. The first shortwave
helped to initiate convection over northern Bladen and Pender
counties this morning. The steering flow was driving the storms
due east. The best shortwave energy will move through North
Carolina, especially just north of local forecast area, but it
will extend farther south. It will move through this afternoon in
time to combine with moderate instability and the sea breeze front
to help enhance localized convection. Sfc based CAPE values remain
up close to 4000 j/kg with pcp water values over 2 inches, temps
around 90 and dewpoint temps into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Main 500 mb trough will be aligned down
the east coast into the Carolinas with trough axis along or just
east of the coast. A shortwave moving just off the coast early Wed
and any associated convection will be followed by drier air and
subsidence aloft. This will leave local area in deep NW-N flow
which will help to push a cold front south. The front will still
be north of the area to start the day but winds will be veering
around to the west ahead of it producing drier downslope air.
Lingering moisture along the coast with pcp water values up to 1.8
inches could help trigger some convection earlier in the day, but
drier air will continue to make its way in, especially aloft. This
should limit overall instability, but localized forcing along sea
breeze and front as it drops south may trigger a few storms with
greater potential to drive down gusty winds, especially in
northeast SC where best instability should remain. By mid aftn pcp
water values will be around 1.5 inches as front continues to drop
south and reaches into our area from the north.

A deep northerly flow will push the front south of area by late
Wed evening leaving a relatively drier air mass in place for
Thurs. GFS shows dewpoints dropping down into the mid 60s across a
good portion of the area. This will allow overnight temps Thurs
night to drop down into the 60s over many spots. Temps will see a
a couple of degree drop also as 850 temps show a drop from 19c
Tues down to 16c on Thurs aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...The extended forecast requires little in
the way of changes as the theme will be mid level ridging along
with the heat, at least for the first half.

A broad west to east oriented ridge will build in mostly early in
the period with rather dry mid levels as PWs are less than 1.5
inches. This should keep pops to a minimum both Friday and Saturday.
As the moisture increases, approaching two inches (PW) Sunday, pops
come back into play. It appears there is more of a diurnal signal
with convection and this is probably indicative of remnant MCSs
and the associated outflow boundaries. The moisture in the column
kinda vacillates back and forth from Sunday onward. Overall the
forecast for Sunday through Tuesday will probably resemble that of
a couple of weeks ago, very hot, possible afternoon and
evening/overnight thunderstorms with a slight albeit temporary
seemingly refreshing airmass in its wake. Heat advisories look
like a given Friday and Saturday with more uncertainty Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Terminals are VFR this evening. Isolated thunderstorms
are occurring N of KLBT, between KILM and KCRE extending NW to SE
of KLBT, and W of KMYR/KCRE. Best confidence of thunderstorms
this evening will be at all terminals except KILM. Generally TEMPO
MVFR expected but brief bouts of IFR are possible, lasting less
than a half hour or so. Thunderstorms should dissipate later this
evening, but convection could continue overnight and move S
towards KLBT/KILM in the pre-dawn hours as a front drops S.
Wednesday other than low confidence MVFR cigs in the AM at
KLBT/KILM, VFR expected with the best chance of shower and
thunderstorms at the SC terminals.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...predominantly VFR outside of scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM...Latest obs show SW 10 to 15 kts with seas of around
2 ft. Forecast on track with no changes expected for the overnight
period. Previous discussion follows:

Southerly flow will continue on the western periphery of Bermuda
High with very manageable seas of 3 ft or less. A small ESE
ground swell will continue to mix in. Overall expect rather
tranquil wind and seas to continue but a W-NW steering flow will
help guide some stronger thunderstorms over the waters through
tonight. The winds will generally remain 10 to 15 kts but you can
expect a slight spike in winds this afternoon between Piedmont
trough and Bermuda High and some higher gusts possible in stronger
storms.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A cold front dropping down from the north
should push across and south of the local waters Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Expect S-SW flow ahead of the front but
winds will veer around to the W-NW and eventually N as front drops
south by late evening. Thunderstorms will still be a threat on Wed
but by Thurs, drier air should make its way in with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more isolated. A brief 15 kt surge is
possible behind cold front Wed night into early Thurs with seas
up to 3 ft but overall expect winds less than 15 kts and seas
3 ft or less. A persistent small ground swell up to 9 seconds
will continue to mix in.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the
waters as would be expected this time of the year. Really the
standard stuff, south to southwest winds of 10-15 knots with seas
of 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/REK/RGZ/CRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-202015-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOONS INTO
EARLY EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-202015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
511 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ107>110-192215-
INLAND BRUNSWICK NC-COASTAL NEW HANOVER NC-INLAND NEW HANOVER NC-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK NC-
511 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW HANOVER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WINNABOW...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LELAND. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...BOILING SPRING LAKES...BISHOP...TOWN CREEK...
MYRTLE GROVE...MILL CREEK...SILVER LAKE...WINNABOW...
MASONBORO AND BOLIVIA.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25
AND 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 7796 3402 7819 3415 7841 3421 7829
      3422 7825 3424 7824 3419 7796 3417 7796
      3414 7795 3416 7794 3419 7795 3417 7784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 137DEG 1KT 3414 7818

REK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
516 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             WESTWOOD HEIGHTS        34.26N  77.83W
07/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       NEW HANOVER        NC   MEDIA

            INTERSECTION OF GORDON RD AND MARKET ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600245

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
526 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW EASY HILL         34.23N  78.03W
07/19/2016  M4.25 INCH       BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR AND 30 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600246

ROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ109-110-192315-
INLAND BRUNSWICK NC-COASTAL BRUNSWICK NC-
608 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SUPPLY...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHALLOTTE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHALLOTTE...CIVIE TOWN AND VARNAMTOWN.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14
AND 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 7820 3395 7822 3393 7822 3393 7821
      3392 7822 3393 7823 3392 7823 3393 7834
      3402 7847 3407 7838 3396 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 111DEG 1KT 3404 7826

REK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ087-099-200030-
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-
731 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN COLUMBUS AND SOUTHEASTERN
ROBESON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 731 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COMMUNITY COLLEGE...OR NEAR WHITEVILLE...MOVING WEST AT
25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITEVILLE...FAIRMONT...TABOR CITY...CHADBOURN...BETHEL...
FAIR BLUFF...BOARDMAN...SOUTHEASTERN COMMUNITY COLLEGE...WILLIAMS...
BARNESVILLE...EVERGREEN...MOLLIE...DULAH...SIDNEY...CLARENDON...
CHERRY GROVE...NAKINA...BRUNSWICK...CERRO GORDO AND MARIETTA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 208...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 209 AND 210...AND NEAR MILE MARKER 214.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 14.
 US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 365 AND 393.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 7885 3448 7887 3446 7883 3447 7876
      3443 7868 3396 7866 3438 7917 3463 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 095DEG 21KT 3432 7877

SHK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

SCZ053-054-200045-
INLAND HORRY SC-COASTAL HORRY SC-
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM
EDT...

AT 739 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LONGS...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...MOVING WEST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONWAY...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...
LITTLE RIVER...HICKORY GROVE...ALLSBROOK...GORETOWN...HOMEWOOD...
ADRIAN...HAND...LONGS...WAMPEE...CHERRY GROVE BEACH...BAYBORO...
HAMMOND...BROOKSVILLE...NIXONVILLE...
BAREFOOT LANDING AREA OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND SEA COAST MEDICAL
CENTER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND 24.
 SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 7906 3407 7904 3402 7874 3390 7861
      3383 7863 3381 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 092DEG 8KT 3393 7878

SHK