Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will persist through Thursday. Heat index
values may exceed 100 degrees both days and will be accompanied by
scattered to numerous thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the
area Friday with much cooler and drier conditions following for
the weekend into early next week. A cold front may reach into the
area in the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...First round of showers fired off along
the sea-breeze front then moved offshore early this afternoon. Now
waiting on an expected second round of more widespread convection
for this afternoon and evening as the very moist and moderately
unstable airmass over the eastern Carolinas heats up to its
convective temperature. With P/W values of around 2.3 inches we
can expect heavy downpours from any storms that form. Fortunately,
they will be moving to the ENE at a pretty good clip, so anything
more than localized ponding or minor flooding is unlikely unless
we get some training of storms. Dew points will remain well up in
the 70s so still expecting heat index values up around 100 this
afternoon for many places.

For tonight expect a gradual tapering off of convection, although
not completely dropping pops as the atmosphere will remain juicy and
unstable. Any passing boundaries or upper disturbances will have the
potential to kick off a round of convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...A cold front will sink southwards during
the short term, moving south across the eastern Carolinas on
Friday afternoon and evening. Thursday will be a hot one.
Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s combined with dew-points in
the mid 70s will bring us apparent temperatures ranging from 100
to 104 Thursday afternoon. Friday will be more moderate depending
upon timing of FROPA, with highs of around 90 and a dryer column
giving us peak apparent temperatures "only" in the mid 90s. Ample
moisture and an unstable column along with FROPA will give us
scattered convection on both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Dry and gusty northerly flow and
relatively cooler high pressure will build into the Carolinas over
the weekend. Pcp water values will drop down to 1.25 inches or
below by Sat morning and less than an inch by Sat evening as the
column really dries out. The mid to upper trough axis will be
aligned from SW-NE across the local area Sat morning and may be
enough upper level support and residual moisture to produce a few
shwrs in the morning but overall expect relatively cooler and
drier weather most of the weekend. High pressure will build south
and then orient itself more west to east over the southeast. An
expansive area of high pressure will end up extending from the mid
country out into the Atlantic through early next week into Tues,
limiting shwrs/tstms as air mass slowly warms and modifies. By
Monday the winds will have a more on shore component increasing
flow of moisture on shore, but enough dry air and subsidence
should remain to keep showers at bay. By Tues, The center of the
high will be off shore with a more humid air mass advecting in. A
mid to upper trough reaching down from Canada will displace the
upper ridge as it pushes a cold front south by Wed. This front
may reach into the Carolinas by late Wed, but the latest GFS keeps
the front north with a warm and moist southerly return flow over
the area through Wed. May see some thunderstorms return to
forecast at this time, Wed aftn, but enough subsidence may remain
over the area to keep coverage isolated. Overall plenty of
sunshine and fair weather through much of the period.

Long summer days and plenty of sunshine will offset caa to keep
aftn temps up near 80 over the weekend, but still well below
normal. Overnight lows will be in the 50s inland and may even drop
below 60 closer to the coast Sat night and Sun night. A return to
summer warmth will work its way back Mon through Wed, with temps
back above normal by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...Afternoon convection is expected to increase in coverage
during the next several hours. Currently only coastal sites are
being affected by thunderstorms but as activity expands inland
expect both FLO and LBT will experience brief periods of MVFR and
possibly IFR due to storms. Another round of convection is possible
at coastal sites lasting into the evening hours. Convection is
largely diurnally driven and loss of heating will bring a decrease
in activity. Low level jet tonight, around 20 kt between 500 and
1000 ft, should prevent development of significant fog but may
lead to an ifr stratus deck where rainfall is heaviest.

Extended outlook...Periods of morning MVFR fog/stratus possible on
Thursday, and periods of MVFR/IFR from afternoon/evening convection.
Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Weak pressure gradient today will
tighten tonight as a cold front begins to descend from the north.
Current light SW flow will increase overnight to 15 to 20 kts.
Seas will build in turn, with 5 footers possible over the outer
fringes of our waters after midnight. Greatest threat to mariners
will remain from thunderstorms moving offshore this afternoon and
evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...SW winds on Thursday will veer to the W
on Friday and then N on Friday night as a cold front drops south
across the waters. It is possible that we could post exercise
caution headlines for the waters Friday night as northerly
gradient tightens behind the cold front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Gusty northerly winds will increase into
Saturday as dry high pressure builds in behind the exiting cold front.
Expect winds on Saturday to slowly veer from N to NE maintaining
their 15 to 25 kt speed. Winds will decrease slowly and continue
to come around to a more on shore flow through the end of the
weekend as high pressure settles just to the north of the local
waters. Seas into Saturday will be as high as 6 to 9 ft, but may
be higher as WNA is forecasting seas up to 12 ft near Frying Pan
Shoals by Sat evening. Therefore expect SCA conditions ongoing and lasting
through much of the weekend. The WNA shows seas peaking late Sat
into early Sun near 12 ft out near Frying Pan Shoals and then
starting a downward trend through Sunday finally dropping below
SCA thresholds by Sun night near midnight. By Monday winds will
become more on shore and lighten through the day. Seas will come
down to 2 to 4 ft by the Mon night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-161845-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
245 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT INDICES THURSDAY WILL REACH 100 TO 104 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-161845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
245 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
457 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

SCZ053-054-152145-
COASTAL HORRY SC-INLAND HORRY SC-
457 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HORRY COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HORRY TO NEAR CONWAY
TO NEAR BUCKSPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MYRTLE BEACH...CONWAY...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...
RED HILL...SOCASTEE...LITTLE RIVER...MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...HORRY...LORIS...
HICKORY GROVE...ALLSBROOK...HOMEWOOD...DONGOLA...BUCKSPORT...BUCKSVILLE...
BROOKSVILLE...NIXONVILLE...GORETOWN AND BAREFOOT LANDING AREA OF NORTH
MYRTLE BEACH.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 24.
 SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 7907 3364 7913 3365 7912 3366 7914
      3366 7915 3368 7916 3369 7918 3401 7927
      3426 7905 3398 7869 3386 7856 3380 7872
      3374 7882 3368 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 239DEG 25KT 3396 7911 3383 7910 3364 7907

RGZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
506 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ087-SCZ017-024-152200-
ROBESON NC-DILLON SC-MARLBORO SC-
506 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ROBESON...EAST CENTRAL
MARLBORO AND DILLON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 505 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLIO TO LATTA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUMBERTON...DILLON...PEMBROKE...FAIRMONT...MCCOLL...LATTA...ROWLAND...LAKE
VIEW...CLIO...KEMPER...BINGHAM...LITTLE ROCK...MINTURN...HAMER...ELROD...OAK
GROVE...RAEMON...PURVIS...BARNESVILLE AND ROBESON COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 210...BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
197 AND 195...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 214.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 198.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 27.
 US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 365 AND 368.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7905 3429 7935 3430 7941 3429 7948
      3428 7948 3427 7957 3468 7956 3468 7953
      3463 7946 3470 7940 3476 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 268DEG 18KT 3461 7947 3434 7943

RJD

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