Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
315 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms are expected today and possibly tonight.
Moisture associated with Tropical Depression 3 will spread
across the region late Monday bringing heavy rain Monday night
into Tuesday. A cooler and much drier airmass arrives by
Wednesday and Thursday. Only a gradual return of humidity
may occur late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

As of 3 PM Sunday...H7-H5 lapse rates OF 5-5.5 C/KM hindering
deep and robust convection thus far across the region as upper
ridge remnants hold over the area. SPC maintains 'slight risk'
across our portion of SE NC and NE SC with a watch possible over
the far interior this afternoon. Column winds will become more
supportive of potential wind damage late this afternoon and
tonight as steering winds increase. Lapse rates above 600 mb may
hinder thunderstorms overnight as well, but any cells will have a
faster speed than presently. KLTX VWP only showing 15-25 kt winds
in the lowest 7000 feet currently. Its doubtful diurnal cooling
will entirely diminish convection overnight as dynamics aloft
become more supportive, and the slight risk extends through 12z
Monday. S-SW winds overnight accompanied by clouds will maintain
elevated minimums, and some sites may even register the official low
during a rain-cooled shower or storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 3 PM Sunday...Primary headline this period is potential for
Tropical Storm Colin to form and impact the forecast area with
buckets of rainfall late Monday and Tuesday. Wind may not become
the chief hazard depending on strength of system since stronger
winds will reside E of the center. Tropical Storm Warnings are
already posted for portions of FL and offshore waters off the SE
US coast and eastern Gulf. Total rainfall Monday and Tuesday
combined, shows near 3 inches along the NE SC and SE NC coast and
1-2 inches inland. Eventually a TS Warning may be needed for our
coastal areas. Rip current strength and surf-zone wave energy
will increase during this period as well. The abundance of clouds
and eventual rain will cap maximums in the middle 80s both days or
upper 80s if the sun can poke through a bit on Monday. Mild mins
until we get the front off the coast late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...

As of 3 PM Sunday...  The long term offers up an extended period of
rain-free and mostly sunny weather. A legitimate airmass change will
be quite noticeable on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the
north, aided by a deep upper trough over NY/PA. Highs in the low to
mid 80s not all that unseasonable but there will be much lower
dewpoints/humidity in the air. This will bring some cooler than
recent nights. The high appears to weak so much as it builds in late
in the week and over the weekend that we never get into bonafide
return flow. There may even be a secondary albeit weaker push of
cooler and drier air. For now will leave the forecast as-is and show
a gradual return of more seasonable warmth and humidity but this may
need to be revisited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 18Z SUNDAY...  A rather active day of thunderstorms is coming
up...and since most will be strong enough to lead to IFR in an
otherwise MVFR environment timing them this afternoon is the main
TAF issue. Storms like to fire by about 20Z...mainly near western
zones. The sea breeze will also light up leading to two separate
areas of fairly deep thunderstorms. After dark thunderstorms will
tend to diminish in both coverage and intensity but will likely
continue through daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Marine conditions less than ideal by this
evening due to 15-20 kt s-sw winds and 3-5 foot seas. This will be
coupled with isolated to scattered strong/severe TSTMS over the
waters late today through Monday morning. Mariners should strongly
consider a radar update before heading out even if on the ICW. Seas
will be a mix of SSW waves 2-4 feet every 4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-
2 feet every 8-9 seconds. TSTMS may be severe overnight and capable
of gusts up to 50 kt in the strongest of storms. Remember seas and
winds will be higher in and near TSTMS.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...
This marine period will not be a pretty one as
the 0-20 nm waters may be impacted by Tropical Storm Colin late
Monday and Tuesday. It appears right now that at a minimum, a small
craft advisory will be needed for 30 KT gusts and 4-7 foot seas late
Monday and Tuesday, but potentially worse since the tropical system
can become strong. TSTMS and showers will be scattered then numerous
into Tuesday. Mariners should stay posted as Tropical Storm Warnings
are possible soon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 3 PM Sunday...    Northerly winds will ease slightly as the
day progresses. To some degree this will be modulated by the speed
at which tropical system exits, which at this point is quite
uncertain. Similarly there will be some backswell from the exiting
system but it too will be waning. Very quiet for the rest of the
period however with wind speeds capped at 10kt and seas 2 to
occasionally 3 ft due to such a light gradient. This will cast some
uncertainty into the wind direction forecast though.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MBB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

NCZ109-SCZ055-062015-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ107-062015-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ110-SCZ056-062015-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ054-062015-
COASTAL HORRY-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-062015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-062015-
COASTAL PENDER-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ108-062015-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-105-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-062015-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

8

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
405 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

NCZ087-052030-
ROBESON NC-
405 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBESON COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANTIOCH...OR NEAR RED SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED SPRINGS...WAKULLA...REX...SHANNON...PARKTON...RENNERT AND LUMBER
BRIDGE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32
AND 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7894 3487 7892 3486 7893 3483 7890
      3477 7929 3484 7930 3483 7919 3495 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 251DEG 27KT 3485 7924

III

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

NCZ099-052100-
COLUMBUS NC-
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WHITEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITEVILLE...LAKE WACCAMAW...REDBUG...HALLSBORO...BRUNSWICK...BOLTON AND
COLUMBUS REGIONAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.

THIS INCLUDES US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 389 AND 408.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 7857 3438 7844 3421 7837 3422 7875
      3436 7876 3443 7860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 257DEG 22KT 3429 7868

III

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
432 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W LAKE WACCAMAW       34.32N  78.52W
06/05/2016                   COLUMBUS           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN. INITIAL REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO
            OPERATOR...CONFIRMED BY 911 CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600095

TRA

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