Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
642 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening front and area of low pressure across the region will
bring a good chance of showers and storms over the next couple of days.
A building ridge of high pressure will bring above normal
temperatures and less coverage of storms mid week. More typical
summer time weather can be expected into the weekend with
scattered showers and storms each day as the Bermuda High and
Piedmont trough dominate the weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 600 PM Monday...First batch of thunderstorms moved across
the northern portions of the forecast area and produced some very
spotty wind damage. These thunderstorms were weakening across the
Cape Fear River basin early this eve.

Another strong thunderstorm developed along convective outflow
boundary in Horry County and will move toward the grand Strand
through 8 pm.

Another cluster of thunderstorms was poised to move into Marlboro
and Darlington counties. These storms may produce isolated wind
damage over the next few hours.

The convection should wane through late eve. However, expect
showers and thunderstorms to redevelop along the land breeze,
especially across the Cape Fear area toward morning.

Overnight lows will be mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The western extension of the Bermuda high
will keep up a warm and moist southwesterly flow over the eastern
Carolinas through the period. A moderately unstable column will
lead to primarily diurnal convection with the good chance for
thunderstorms on both days. Temperatures will be seasonal on
Tuesday and just above climo on Wednesday. However, temperatures
near the coast may not make it out of the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Weak 5h ridge over the southeast Thu will
break down ahead of shortwave emerging from the plains. As the
flow aloft transitions to weak troughing Fri into Sat diurnal
convection due to the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough will
increase in coverage. Bermuda High will maintain low level
southwest flow as well as an abundance of moisture. Southwest flow
aloft will result in deep moisture over the southeast with
precipitable water values above 2 inches through the period. While
showers and thunderstorms will develop each day the best chances
will be during the weekend and the start of next week.
Temperatures a little above climo Thu and Fri will be closer to
climo during the day Sat through Mon with overnight temps
continuing to run a little above climo.&&

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Convection winding down in North Carolina, however storms
are expected to continue in South Carolina for at least the next 3-4
hours, possible reaching the coast around 06Z. Given the airmass,
could not rule out another round of convection after 06Z, but
uncertain as to location and coverage. Light southwest flow will
continue with convective debris expected over much of the region.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Localized MVFR in ISOLD/SCT thunderstorms each
day between 17Z-01Z, otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 PM Monday...Bermuda high pressure will be in place
across the waters. Winds will be SW 10 to 15 kt this eve, then
veer to more westerly and decrease slightly as a landbreeze
develops. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will impact the waters, with clusters of numerous
storms possible. Some of the thunderstorms will likely be strong.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will keep winds from the SW at 10 to 15 kts through the period,
with seas of 2 or 3 ft. No advisories are expected during the
short term. However, there will be a chance for thunderstorms each
day, particularly in the afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo will
maintain southwest flow through the period. Trough will be more
defined during the period which will keep speeds on the high end
of the 10 to 15 kt range. Increased southwest flow will keep seas
in the 3 to 4 ft range each day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
842 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ099-109-110-SCZ053-054-120115-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK NC-COLUMBUS NC-INLAND BRUNSWICK NC-
COASTAL HORRY SC-INLAND HORRY SC-
842 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL COLUMBUS...SOUTHERN
BRUNSWICK AND CENTRAL HORRY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 842 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DULAH...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...WHITEVILLE...SHALLOTTE...SUNSET BEACH...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...LITTLE RIVER...IREDELL...
CAROLINA SHORES...TABOR CITY...LORIS...CHADBOURN...CALABASH...
BETHEL...LAKE WACCAMAW...ALLSBROOK...WILLIAMS...HALLSBORO...MOLLIE...
CLARENDON AND RUSSTOWN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 386 AND 398.
 US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 38.
 SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 24.
 SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 7920 3438 7874 3416 7803 3379 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 289DEG 38KT 3409 7872

III

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
847 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ032-033-039-053>056-120145-
MARION SC-COASTAL GEORGETOWN SC-FLORENCE SC-WILLIAMSBURG SC-
INLAND GEORGETOWN SC-COASTAL HORRY SC-INLAND HORRY SC-
847 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORENCE...NORTHERN
GEORGETOWN...SOUTHWESTERN HORRY...CENTRAL MARION AND CENTRAL
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 846 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HYMAN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONWAY...GEORGETOWN...LAKE CITY...KINGSTREE...RED HILL...SOCASTEE...
MURRELLS INLET...HORRY...JACKSON...JOHNSONVILLE...PAMPLICO...
HEMINGWAY...HICKORY GROVE...KINGSBURG...WARSAW...HENRY...
GALIVANTS FERRY...BRITTONS NECK...HANNAH AND ADRIAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 6.
 SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 7996 3413 7965 3411 7918 3382 7885
      3335 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 293DEG 30KT 3395 7962

SHK

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