Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

October 4, 2016Reno County, Kansas

NWS Wichita, KS issued this special weather statement at Oct 4, 2016, 5:34 PM CDT for Reno County, Kansas. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2016, 5:34 PM CDT (22:34 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Wichita, KS

County Reno County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 305 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -361 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1323 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 305 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 292 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 4, 3:11 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 3:11 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Forecast highlights: Active weather for early October standards,
with severe thunderstorms this afternoon- evening, and more
strong/severe storms and heavy rain Thursday late afternoon-
night. Much cooler weather by Friday.

Latest observational trends in concert with short-term hi-res
guidance suggests greatest threat for severe weather this
afternoon/evening will be generally along east of a line extending
from Lincoln to Lyons to Pratt, and generally along/west of the
Flint Hills, along and ahead of an approaching dryline/cold front.
Stout deep layer shear oriented nearly perpendicular to the
dryline (reference 2pm Norman OK sounding) along with decent
instability for October standards will support a handful of
supercells initially, with large hail (possibly up to baseball
size), damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Greatest
threat for a tornado or two will be mainly south-central Kansas
into Oklahoma, where greatest instability/low-level moisture will
reside, and also where storms should stay discrete the longest.
Given strong forcing/mid-level cooling, activity should tend to go
linear (broken squall line) within 2-3 hours of initiation, with
the main threat transitioning to marginally severe hail and wind,
although any "tail-end Charlie" storms on the far southern end
over south-central/southeast Kansas/Oklahoma could maintain a
large hail and possible tornado threat well into the evening. As
convection outruns instability, severe threat should tend to wane
later in the evening over far southeast Kansas.

A lull in activity expected Wednesday, although should see
gradually increasing shower/thunderstorm chances by late afternoon
over southeast Kansas as 850-600mb warm advection/moisture
transport increases ahead of an impressive digging western CONUS
trough. These chances will increase/expand for many areas of
eastern Kansas Wednesday night, but severe weather is unlikely
given marginal instability.

Attention then shifts to severe weather and heavy rain potential
Thursday late afternoon-night, especially over southeast Kansas,
as a strong shortwave and associated strong cold front approach
the region. Low-level moisture, precipitable waters and
instability looks to increase for this next system, which will
favor additional strong/severe storms along with the potential for
heavy rain. Heavy rain threat will be amplified by mid/upper flow
oriented parallel to the cold front, and especially if the cold
front slows down as advertised by the GFS. Will continue to
monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

*Much* cooler weather spreading south across the region by
Friday, with highs in the 60s. Gradual warming trend back into the
70s by Sunday. Slight chances of rain/isolated storms by Sunday
afternoon, but not expecting widespread activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Strong to severe convection is expected late this afternoon and
evening along a surface front/dryline across central Kansas with
evolution eastward into southeast Kansas overnight. Confidence is
fairly high on timing though impacts may be greater than indicated
with regard to wind gusts/VSBYS and will amend as needed. Some
indications suggest stratus CIGS in the MVFR category may develop
over southern Kansas late tonight.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  83  65  84 /  60  10  40  40
Hutchinson      54  81  61  82 /  40   0  30  30
Newton          57  81  63  81 /  70  10  40  40
ElDorado        61  83  65  82 /  80  10  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  85  67  85 /  60  10  50  40
Russell         46  79  54  75 /  10   0  10  10
Great Bend      47  80  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
Salina          51  81  60  81 /  30   0  20  30
McPherson       53  81  60  81 /  40  10  30  30
Coffeyville     65  85  69  87 /  70  20  50  40
Chanute         62  83  67  84 /  70  20  60  50
Iola            62  82  67  84 /  80  20  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    63  85  68  85 /  70  20  60  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 3:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
338 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 75 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. LATER INTO THE EVENING...THE MAIN RISK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS EVOLVES AND MOVES ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 4, 4:40 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             3 SW BEVERLY            38.98N 98.02W
10/04/2016  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED WITH 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

KED

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:04 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
504 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               38.74N 98.23W
10/04/2016  E0.75 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 5:14 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ067-082-042245-
KINGMAN KS-RENO KS-
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL KINGMAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF KINGMAN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KINGMAN...PRETTY PRAIRIE...PARTRIDGE...KINGMAN AIRPORT AND CHENEY
  LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3764 9816 3772 9825 3799 9809 3779 9776
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 222DEG 31KT 3773 9814

RITZMAN

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:29 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             15 W SALINA             38.82N 97.90W
10/04/2016  E0.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:30 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 E ELLSWORTH          38.74N 98.01W
10/04/2016  E50 MPH          ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 5:34 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ067-042300-
RENO KS-
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF PRETTY PRAIRIE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTCHINSON...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...HAVEN...PRETTY PRAIRIE...YODER AND
  HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3816 9792 3798 9770 3792 9770 3778 9803
      3784 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 221DEG 38KT 3788 9797

RITZMAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wichita, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 3:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Saline	33 min
Oct 4, 3:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Ellsworth, Lincoln	52 min
Oct 4, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Ellsworth, Lincoln	49 min
Oct 4, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Ellsworth, Lincoln, Saline	38 min
Oct 4, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Ellsworth, Lincoln, Saline	23 min
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Ellsworth, Lincoln, Saline	64 min
Oct 4, 5:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Reno	31 min
Oct 4, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Saline	57 min
Oct 4, 6:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Harvey	60 min
Oct 4, 6:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Sedgwick	24 min
Oct 4, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Kingman, Reno, Sedgwick	52 min
Oct 4, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Saline	45 min
Oct 4, 6:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	McPherson	27 min
Oct 4, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Sedgwick	39 min
Oct 4, 6:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Marion	23 min
Oct 4, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Harvey, McPherson, Marion	34 min
Oct 4, 6:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Dickinson	42 min
Oct 4, 6:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Sumner	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.