Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

Main forecast concern for the next couple of days will be high
rainfall rates with the stronger showers and storms and associated
flooding.

Storms developed shortly before midnight as the low level jet
converged into a weak boundary over central KS. With an extremely
high PW airmass in place, the stronger storms were producing
rainfall rates on the order of 2-3" per hour. While we should
continue to see some sct activity this morning feel there should
be a lull in activity this afternoon. There is then very good
model agreement that convection will once again pick up late this
afternoon into the early evening hours as 850-700mb moisture
transport ramps up with good 850mb convergence over south central
KS and especially into the Flint Hills. As the overnight hours
progress, the better focus will shift east into far eastern KS and
western MO. With the extremely high PW airmass remaining in place,
feel confident enough to run with a flood watch. With convection
producing heavy rain occurring as we speak, will just start it
now and run through 12z Fri. Will let the next couple of shifts
expand in area and or time if needed.

Strong cold front still expected to push through Fri afternoon
through Fri evening. This feature is expected to move into central
KS by 21z Fri and pass through KICT right around 00z Sat. Storms
will be likely along the front as it surges south with strong to
marginally severe storms possible. The front will be moving fast
enough to limit a prolonged flooding threat, but can't rule out
short term flooding due to high rainfall rates, especially over
flood prone locations and metropolitan areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

Finally, a much cooler and especially drier airmass will be in
place Sat with highs struggling to get out of the 70s. Below
normal temps are expected to remain through the weekend. We will
get back to near normal or slightly above normal temps by Mon as
shortwave energy digs over the Pacific NW into the Great Basin.
Still good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a front stalling
out over the area for Mon night through Tue as the upper low
spins over the Central Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

Expecting scattered thunderstorms to fester much of the night
mainly southeast of Salina to Great Bend, as a cold front slowly
approaches from the northwest, interacting with a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass in place across the region. Thinking
this activity will gradually expand/spread into mainly south-
central/southeast KS during the day Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  73  91  60 /  50  50  50  60
Hutchinson      88  71  89  58 /  40  40  60  30
Newton          86  71  89  57 /  50  50  60  50
ElDorado        88  72  90  59 /  60  70  50  60
Winfield-KWLD   89  73  91  61 /  40  50  30  80
Russell         86  67  85  51 /  20  20  40  10
Great Bend      88  67  87  53 /  20  30  40  10
Salina          88  71  87  55 /  30  30  50  20
McPherson       87  71  88  56 /  40  40  60  30
Coffeyville     89  73  91  62 /  50  50  20  90
Chanute         88  73  88  61 /  70  70  40  80
Iola            86  73  87  61 /  70  80  40  80
Parsons-KPPF    89  73  90  62 /  50  60  30  80

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ052-053-069>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
806 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
806 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...40 TO 50 MPH WINDS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.

STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE ALWAYS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
227 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

KSZ051-052-068-080800-
HARVEY KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-
227 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT

* AT 224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF DURHAM TO MOUNDRIDGE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HESSTON...HILLSBORO...MARION...MOUNDRIDGE...CANTON...GOESSEL...
  LINCOLNVILLE...RAMONA...LEHIGH...DURHAM...TAMPA...LOST SPRINGS...
  MARION LAKE AND PILSEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3822 9708 3811 9759 3855 9737
      3861 9722 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 248DEG 31KT 3851 9734 3821 9750

RITZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     FLOOD            NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
09/08/2016                   HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF WATER UP TO THE CURBS ACROSS MULTIPLE ROADS IN
            NEWTON. WATER WAS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 4 INCHES DEEP.

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

KSZ052-053-069-070-080845-
CHASE KS-GREENWOOD KS-MARION KS-BUTLER KS-
243 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT

* AT 239 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
  BURNS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLORENCE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 55 MPH WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COTTONWOOD FALLS...STRONG CITY...BURNS...CASSODAY...BAZAAR...
  MATFIELD GREEN...THRALL...SAFFORDVILLE...WONSEVU...
  TALLGRASS PRAIRIE PRESERVE AND EL DORADO LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 9635 3818 9636 3817 9618 3800 9609
      3790 9685 3816 9695 3851 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 248DEG 31KT 3807 9680

RITZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     FLOOD            NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
09/08/2016                   HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER IN THE AREA OF BROADWAY AND HIGH IN
            NEWTON.

&&

JMR

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