Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The severe threat has waned across the forecast area, as all the
surface-based thunderstorms remained closely tied to the surface
front across Oklahoma. However, still expecting thunderstorm
chances to gradually increase from the south overnight, as the
frontal zone begins to shift north across the region in response
to the approaching upper trough across the southern Rockies.
Beginning to see signs of this as regional 850mb winds per radar
VWPs are backing to a more south/southeasterly direction. Latest
short-term hi-res guidance (i.e. HRRR, RAP) also supports a
gradual increase in convection overnight. Thinking strongest
activity will be capable of dime size hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall rates. While enthusiasm for the flash flood
watch currently in effect has waned, cannot rule out isolated
occurrences of flooding/flash flooding overnight, so will keep it
going through 7am Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A stalled frontal boundary will create an active weather pattern
for the next several days. PW values are rather high in the 1-1.5
inch range providing some high octane moisture for convection to
work with. Moisture transport and deep layer shear are present but
not great. This will make for the efficient rain makers overnight
tonight. Best chances are from the Turnpike to the East. An
isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible overnight with wind
being the primary threat. Localized flooding is possible in some
areas of South Central and Central Kansas. Based on the moisture
and the above mentioned atmospheric parameters and collaboration
with surrounding offices, issuing a Flood Watch for the overnight
time period for much of Central and South Central Kansas.

The next question is the amount of precipitation for Friday
afternoon through Saturday. The frontal boundary remains over the
CWA. Models still indicate high octane moisture present with PW
staying near 1.5 inches. Additionally, expect some waves moving
along the front Friday night which will allow for some more
convection to get going. Again, expect many of the thunderstorms
to be efficient rain produces with locally heavy rain likely.
Can't rule out an isolated severe storm as well. Temperatures look
to remain just below normal due the increased cloud cover.
Overnight lows will likely be near or just above normal as there
just does not seem to be any good push of cooler drier air moving
into the area.

Sunday looks to be a little drier but moisture will remain high
which will keeping the clouds in the area. PW looks to drop to
around an inch keeping plenty of fuel for thunderstorms, just not
as much. This will keep the temperatures down some. Showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible with some locally heavy rain
but more scattered late afternoon Sunday and Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The extended forecast still looks active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms likely. Right now the chances for heavy rain
looks to be Monday and Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday looks a
little warmer and more isolated showers and thunderstorms. This
will allow temperatures to get a little warmer and possibility
just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread north
across the region overnight into early Friday morning. The primary
threats will be locally intense rainfall rates, along with gusty
winds and perhaps small hail. Included VCTS at most sites, and
even included TEMPO +TSRA for a few hours at Wichita and
Hutchinson. Overnight shift will continue to monitor for possible
amendments to account for this thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  84  69  88 /  60  50  40  30
Hutchinson      65  81  68  87 /  60  50  40  30
Newton          65  81  67  86 /  60  50  40  30
ElDorado        66  83  68  87 /  60  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  69  89 /  70  40  40  30
Russell         60  77  64  85 /  30  40  40  30
Great Bend      60  79  65  86 /  30  40  40  30
Salina          63  80  68  86 /  50  50  40  40
McPherson       64  80  67  86 /  60  50  40  40
Coffeyville     70  88  69  90 /  50  40  30  40
Chanute         69  86  69  87 /  60  40  40  40
Iola            69  85  69  87 /  70  40  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  69  88 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ051>053-067>072-
082-083-091>095.

&&

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

KSZ094-098-260600-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-
1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1205 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
  GRENOLA...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOWARD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOWARD...MOLINE...GRENOLA AND ELK FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9653 3749 9653 3761 9631 3761 9619
      3726 9605 3726 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 247DEG 25KT 3738 9638

RITZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             MORAN                   37.92N 95.17W
08/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       ALLEN              KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

KSZ098-260600-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-
1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1225 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 8 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF SEDAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEDAN...CEDAR VALE...PERU...CHAUTAUQUA...ELGIN...NIOTAZE AND HALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9652 3730 9597 3700 9597 3700 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 267DEG 21KT 3719 9632

RITZMAN

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