Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The central United States trough maintains with the main wrapped
up low pressure system across southern Saskatchewan into the
Dakotas with external extents staying along the Rockies. High
pressure over the Southeast maintains its dominance resulting in
persistent southwest flow for the rest of the week in the Central
Plains. A cold front stretching from northern Missouri to
southeast Nebraska into central and southwest Kansas is expected
to help initiate showers and thunderstorms along it this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Primary focus - Precipitation specifically heavy rain potential
tonight and tomorrow night depending on the activity associated with
the frontal boundary. Flooding could be a great concern the next
couple of days depending on the evolution of the activity.

Morning elevated activity has diminished leading to a clearing in
the clouds for diurnal heating to set the stage for the southeast
moving cold front; the merger with an outflow boundary from the
morning activity very well could lead to convective development.
This front is certainly not off to the races which begs the question
of potential training for areas of central and northeast Kansas. CIN
persists in central Kansas this afternoon following the morning
activity. MUCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg across south
central Kansas with 40 to 50kts of effective bulk shear based on
the latest meso analysis. This instability could initiate severe
thunderstorms this evening with quarter sized hail and 60mph
winds possible. Right now widespread severe storms are not
expected. Composite reflectivity model simulations indicate
development around 0z for south central Kansas.

The trough over the central CONUS and high in the Southeast are
keeping a southwest flow regime for the Plains with the faucet of
moisture remaining in the on position for the rest of this week.
Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 are forecast for this
timeframe leaving ample available moisture. Given the
thunderstorms across McPherson, Marion and Harvey counties from a
few days ago that generated over two inches, this would be the
area with greatest flooding likelihood highlighted with over four
inches for the next five days from Hutchinson to Emporia to the
Kansas City vicinity by HPC. Areas further north and southwest
have not received the rain in the last ten days or even the month
of August in some cases; this would aid in a diminished flooding
threat at least initially beyond the high rainfall rates in a
short period of time due to any thunderstorms with minimal
movement or training.

Since the models are suggesting that northeast Kansas into the KC
metro will be the target for heavier rainfall tonight while
questions loom in spread and persistence of activity further
southwest tonight, it is difficult to jump on board with any flood
headlines. Thus the thought is to wait to see how things evolve
this evening to see if one would warranted in the next forecast
issuance or even an update before then. Precipitation chances
were tweaked to account for latest guidance, but it is still a
toss up due to the uncertainty in frontal movement and potential
outflow influence. Therefore repeated chances of thunderstorms
exist for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The high pressure system over the Southeast will spread to cover
the eastern half of the CONUS for the weekend. There is a trough
that will strengthen and move down from Hudson Bay while remaining
in Canada which will only squish the high. A ridge is anticipated
for this part of the country for the first part of the week which
means consistent temperatures for the latter periods. ECMWF has
brought in a tightly wrapped tropical system with a track across
the Gulf which has varied between runs. The GFS has started to
hint at something similar. This certainly peaks the interest meter
given the strength at such a point in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Main Hazards: Thunderstorm potential tonight-Thursday, and also
stratus potential late tonight into Thursday morning.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue
targeting south-central through northeast and east-central Kansas
through at least 04Z, in response to low-level wind
convergence/upper-level divergence near a cold front, and various
outflow boundaries south of front. Isolated wet microbursts and
very heavy rainfall rates are the main threats from these storms.

Forecast uncertainty regarding thunderstorm potential/coverage
decreases after 06Z tonight as the low-level jet veers and
moisture transport weakens. However, the front looks to stall in
south-central through east-central Kansas, with some upper
diffluence in a subtropical airmass. So continued VCTS mentions
late tonight at most terminals. MVFR stratus appears likely in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary late tonight into Thursday
morning. A few showers could linger Thursday morning and there may
be a lull until mid-late afternoon when new storms could develop
with the stalled front in the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  66  84 /  60  60  70  30
Hutchinson      66  79  63  82 /  70  60  60  40
Newton          67  80  64  82 /  70  60  70  30
ElDorado        68  83  65  84 /  60  60  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  67  87 /  50  50  50  30
Russell         62  75  61  78 /  60  50  50  40
Great Bend      63  75  61  80 /  60  50  60  40
Salina          66  76  63  81 /  70  50  60  40
McPherson       66  78  63  81 /  80  60  60  40
Coffeyville     72  92  69  87 /  20  40  50  30
Chanute         70  87  67  85 /  40  50  50  30
Iola            69  86  66  84 /  50  60  60  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  68  86 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260400-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1056 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
EARLY ON...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR THE UPCOMING
FORECASTS CLOSELY AS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES COULD LINGER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1055 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

KSZ093-094-098-250430-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-COWLEY KS-
1055 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1052 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEXTER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
  CEDAR VALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CEDAR VALE...DEXTER...GRENOLA AND MAPLE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9687 3746 9648 3703 9619 3700 9630
      3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 229DEG 31KT 3713 9665

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

KSZ092-093-250430-
SUMNER KS-COWLEY KS-
1057 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
  QUARTER OF SUMNER COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARKANSAS CITY...WINFIELD...WELLINGTON...CALDWELL...OXFORD...
  SOUTH HAVEN...GEUDA SPRINGS...HUNNEWELL...
  PERTH AND STROTHER FIELD AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9720 3700 9772 3740 9720 3718 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 229DEG 31KT 3716 9732

KLEINSASSER

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