Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Short-term forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances
this afternoon-evening through Thursday night, with an attendant
threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding. Heavy
rain/flooding threat will be highest Wed evening-night and Thu
evening-night.

Convergence associated with lee trough approaching from the west
in concert with subtle upper disturbances associated with an upper
jet max currently progressing northeast over Mid-America could
support a small cluster or two of thunderstorms late this
afternoon-evening generally along/west of Salina-Wichita-
Wellington. Atmosphere is strong unstable and weakly capped. Given
weak forcing and subtle convergence, probably won't be looking at
widespread activity. However, strong instability and so-so lapse
rates along with marginal deep layer shear will support a low to
modest severe threat of large hail and damaging winds with
anything that can form, along with locally heavy rain. Given
shortwave ridging approaching from the southwest, activity should
tend to wane by midnight.

Attention then turns to severe weather and especially heavy
rain/flooding threat Wed afternoon/evening through Thu night, as a
cold front approaches from the north, eventually stalling west-
east somewhere in vicinity of the KS/OK border. A number of
ingredients are expected to come together to produce the potential
for numerous training thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
frontal zone, including: rich low-level moisture, modest nighttime
low-level jet, mid-upper flow parallel to frontal zone and
persistent lift underneath right entrance region of upper jet.
Given the modest to poor mid-level lapse rates and high
precipitable water airmass, locally very heavy rainfall rates
appear likely with this activity, along with an attendant threat
of localized flash flooding. Greatest threat area for Wed
afternoon-eve appears to be generally north of Hutchinson-
Cottonwood Falls, with the threat shifting into mainly southern KS
for Thu afternoon-evening. Could also be looking at a handful of
severe storms Wed-Thu, although thinking marginal deep layer shear
and unimpressive lapse rates will probably support a lower end
severe threat of quarter size hail and wet microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Unsettled weather should linger through the weekend and into next
week, as overall mid-upper troughiness remains just to the west
of the region, interacting with a continued moist/unstable
airmass. Specifics remain low, so just held onto 20-30 pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 11 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

SCT-BKN decks from around 1500-2500ft are lkly in most areas thru
mid-aftn. The exceptions would be KGBD & KRSL. All areas should
achieve VFR status ~21Z. SCT TSRA are psbl acrs the neighborhood
thru tmrw aftn with the greatest chances encountered acrs Cntrl KS
where closest to a SLOW se-movg cdfnt. With the front driving thru
a school zone, the ultra-high octane Gulf moisture will have extra
time to spread acrs the region, so +TSRA are psbl, producing ocnl
IFR vsbys.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  92  69  82 /  30  30  60  40
Hutchinson      74  91  66  79 /  30  50  70  40
Newton          73  90  67  80 /  30  40  60  40
ElDorado        74  91  68  83 /  30  30  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   76  93  70  86 /  30  30  40  40
Russell         69  85  61  76 /  20  50  50  30
Great Bend      71  89  62  77 /  30  50  50  30
Salina          73  91  66  79 /  20  50  60  30
McPherson       74  90  66  79 /  30  50  70  40
Coffeyville     75  95  72  91 /  20  20  20  40
Chanute         74  92  70  87 /  30  30  30  40
Iola            74  92  70  86 /  30  30  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    75  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
342 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY EARLY ON...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT.
PLEASE MONITOR THE UPCOMING FORECASTS CLOSELY.

OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES COULD LINGER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPECIFICS REGARDING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW SO
STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF SALINA TO WICHITA TO
WELLINGTON.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

KSZ032-232215-
RUSSELL KS-
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RUSSELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...GORHAM...BUNKER HILL...RUSSELL AIRPORT...
  WILSON STATE PARK AND WILSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9887 3887 9903 3913 9877 3892 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 226DEG 18KT 3887 9888

RITZMAN