Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

This afternoon, a strong cold front stretched from IA, thru North-
Central and SW KS, to the Ok Panhandle. High octane gulf moisture
continues to stream from N TX, across most of OK, to the generally
the ern half of KS. A cluster of thunderstorms has broken out along
the front from Srn Nebraska to North-Central KS a few of which are
severe. An isolated cell has also developed over Wrn Sumner County
& is moving NE toward Sedgwick County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

This Evening/Tonight:
A sharp upper-deck wave that extends from an intense upper cyclone
centered over Hudson Bay across the Wrn Dakotas to NE WY will move
slowly SE across the Nrn Plains. This would kick the cold front SE
with the boundary venturing into SE KS very late tngt. With a very
moist and unstable airmass entrenched across the KS Neighborhood,
thunderstorms are sure to increase, but with the greatest 6K shear
displaced well to the NW of the front anticipate only "marginally
severe" convection tonight, i.e. hail around 1 inch and 50-60 mph
winds. The greatest threat is heavy rains as precipitable waters
around 2 inches reside across all areas, so will need to watch for
flooding.

Rest of the Weekend:
As the cold front continues its SE push toward, then across, the
MS Valley the thunderstorms would quickly end, vacating SE KS Sat
Morning. Much cooler weather would then spread SE across the Great
Plains with Sat's maxes ~15F below normal & Sun's 7-10F below
normal.

Mon & Mon Night:
Warmer weather quickly returns to the Great Plains as a broad but
fairly weak sfc trof develops along the Front Range which'll push
the large sfc high further across the Ern U.S. The onsetting Sly
should increase sufficiently to push Mon's maxes to near 90F along
the Wrn corridor. As the Wrn Plains sfc trof pushes E the return
moisture should be sufficient to 'spark' thunderstorms across the
Srn Plains that may reach the OK/KS border late Mon Night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Tue-Thu:
An intense upper-deck short wave, that is scheduled to reach the
Pacific NW Mon Morning, will push E, then lift NE, over Alberta &
Saskatchewan Tue & Tue Night, respectively. This would push sfc
trof & eventually a cold front SE into the KS Neighborhood. With
the upper-deck trof undergoing cyclogenesis & eventually occluding
the trof & front would decelerate. This would translate into
thunderstorms occurring across the region throughout these periods.
The greatest upper support is N of KS so at this time trhe severe
potential is marginal, but stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Main aviation concern will be storms late this afternoon and
overnight as a strong cold front sweeps through.

Cold front currently stretches from generally KCNK-KRSL-KDDC and
is continuing to push southeast. Storms are expected to develop
along this front in a couple hours first over central KS and
eventually over south central and se KS. Storms look to affect
KHUT around 23z, KICT around 00z and KCNU around 03z. Main threats
with storms will be microburst straight-line winds along with very
high rainfall rates. Hail will be possible but should remain at or
below quarter size. Could see some MVFR cigs behind the front as
cooler air spills south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  78  58  83 /  90  10   0   0
Hutchinson      64  77  56  82 /  80  10   0   0
Newton          64  76  57  82 /  90  10   0   0
ElDorado        65  77  57  82 /  90  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  78  58  83 /  90  10   0   0
Russell         59  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
Great Bend      60  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
Salina          63  78  56  84 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       63  77  56  82 /  80  10   0   0
Coffeyville     70  81  58  84 /  80  20   0   0
Chanute         69  79  57  82 /  90  20   0   0
Iola            68  78  57  81 /  90  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  80  57  83 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-200845-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEGINNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
TRANSITION TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...HOWEVER STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ032-192000-
RUSSELL KS-
236 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
  RUSSELL COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LUCAS...LURAY...BUNKER HILL...WALDO...WILSON LAKE AND WILSON STATE
  PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9848 3894 9848 3885 9865 3894 9889
      3912 9887 3913 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 225DEG 22KT 3897 9867

KLEINSASSER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ032-047-048-192100-
ELLSWORTH KS-RUSSELL KS-BARTON KS-
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
  WILSON...TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILBERGER...TO NEAR TIMKEN...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS TO DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOISINGTON...WILSON...DORRANCE...ALBERT...OLMITZ...MILBERGER...
  GALATIA...SUSANK...WILSON STATE PARK AND WILSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3868 9903 3896 9849 3887 9848 3887 9821
      3838 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 227DEG 19KT 3886 9850 3867 9883 3843 9922

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S LINCOLN             39.01N 98.15W
08/19/2016  E50 MPH          LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ032-033-047-048-192115-
ELLSWORTH KS-RUSSELL KS-BARTON KS-LINCOLN KS-
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEVERLY
  TO NEAR WILSON TO NEAR OTIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELLSWORTH...HOISINGTON...WILSON...LINCOLN...SYLVAN GROVE...
  DORRANCE...ALBERT...BEVERLY...OLMITZ...BARNARD...MILBERGER...
  GALATIA...SUSANK...WILSON STATE PARK...WILSON LAKE...ODIN...
  ELLSWORTH AIRPORT AND WESTFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3866 9903 3922 9807 3922 9793 3888 9793
      3830 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 244DEG 31KT 3905 9798 3882 9840 3853 9901

KLEINSASSER